So long, Carlos. It’s clear by the Astros lowball offer that this isn’t happening. And, the Astros are headed in the wrong direction as the title window closes and the Astros head back to mediocrity for years to come.
There are a lot of casual fans in here who have no idea what the Astros roster construction looks like, where their top prospects play, or the state of the AL West.
I mean, postseason Correa is great. But the simple fact is his regular season stats and durability don't justify the 200+ million contracts some of you are suggesting. Offensively, you have to look at his best year (2017) with some skepticism. Defense is hard to quantify, but I trust that the Astros proprietary in-house metrics are better than any public ones you want to quote. I'm guessing their offer isn't too far off his value based on past performance and future potential.
Winning brings a lot of them. This subforum was a barren wasteland until 2015. A lot of those that did pop in were often here to make LOL disastros comments even when the rebuild was starting to yield clear results. And these same people will not hesitate to blast the Astros for signing him if Correa repeats his recent seasons. The Astros won't bow to public whining either, they will make whatever call is in their best interest, which is why they're the only competent franchise in this city
Cusp of a rebuild? Altuve-Bregman-Tucker-Yordan-Brantley at least Valdez-Urquidy-LMJ-Javier at least There is more foundational talent there than any of the other AL west teams at the moment. And that’s not even including possible extensions for JV, Greinke (who could play on a year to year contract), as well as the farm system that will continue to surprise many with guys “coming out of nowhere” that many here aren’t even aware of.[/QUOTE]
[/QUOTE] I agree completely but I get the feeling ownership feels the window to contend is closing. Loosing Cole then Springer was telling to me. Even being slightly in the luxury tax, according to Forbes the team cleared nearly 100M. If they felt we had a four-year period of contention they could’ve retained both. I agree completely with your assessment I just don’t think ownership does.
They can't pay everyone. They'll have to keep augmenting the roster with cheaper, productive players to balance out the high dollar contracts. If the young arms prove to be legit, it opens up monies that would otherwise have to be spent on the rotation to offset the cost of the infield. In a few years, it'll flip when those guys are due for raises.
They just gave McCullers a lot of money for a team not expecting to compete over the next few years. And they lost a lot of money, just like everybody, revenue isn't profit.
Part of contending is also not to be overpaying for depreciating assets. Thus far, they've done an excellent job of extending pre-arbitration players (Bregman), locking up cornerstone players (Altuve, JV), signing a free agent (Brantley), and now retaining a soon to be free agent (LMJ). All of those players should have elite years over the next 2-3 years. They were never going to give Cole 9 years. No team could realistically afford to do that other than the Yankees. Springer was a 30+ year old CF who is unlikely to have a lot of prime/healthy years throughout that contract... but even if they really wanted to make an effort to keep him, my guess is that GS had his mind made up awhile ago (even perhaps from the time they made him wait an extra year to get promoted). We know that if Crane doesn't have a team that's competitive, or the farm system is barren, they go into operation shut-down and replenish the stock. They're going to optimize the prime core years of Altuve/Bregman/Tucker/Alvarez and if they can retain Correa at a fair rate, they'll go for that.
Is 6 years 120 million really a “low-ball” offer? I’m not saying Correa won’t be able to get a better contract if he can stay healthy, but it’s not unrealistic he could wind up with a worse one if he doesn’t. Bregman signed a 5 year 100 million extension coming off a better year. I know that was a slightly different situation (he was two years younger and it covered more years of team control), but i don’t think the offer to Correa was insulting as a starting point in the way he’s making it out to be. This seems more like posturing.
The Bregman contract was a steal when he signed it and will continue to be if he keeps producing. He also had a lot of time before he hit the free agent market, so its a win-win for him to make sure he gets paid big time and will still have a free agency chance when he's 29/30. He basically took a $100 million advance to sign a big contract 3 years before he otherwise would have been able to. Correa is an unrestricted free agent NEXT YEAR. He doesn't have to sign an extension to bring forward a big pay day. He's served his time. There is absolutely no reason for him to take a discount...if it was 2 years ago, it would have possibly been worth it, but not now. He will get offers of $25-30 million/year easy. He's going to be an unrestricted 27 year old free agent that's a stud at one of the premium positions on the field. He should get a premium over someone like Springer strictly because he'll be younger and at a premium position. Hard hitting shortstops are still rare. Correa is going to get every bit of $200 million if not way more. It was a low ball offer.
I would agree with all that except for his injury history. Seems you nor Carlos consider in the calculus.
It is interesting just how much public perception on Correa has changed. People were constantly whining about Correa and his ego over his first few years. Now he's been fairly mediocre and highly injury prone over the last 3 years, yet one good postseason has people acting like he's a perennial MVP candidate and the unlosable heart and soul. All I know is that fans around here will be furious if he's posting a sub 800 OPS and missing 1/3 of the season after we give him 200 million.
This year is pivotal for him. So i My guess is the Astros make another slightly better offer and its rejected also. Correa and reality seem very far apart.
His continued defensive improvement and the only one who was rightfully vocal/defensive after the cheating scandal story was over-exposed by blowhard media members banking on web-hits did curry some favor. And the post-season. I think the Astros offer was fair, but also smartly rejected. He can have a healthy season and make more. He can get injured and make less. He's betting on the former but the Lindor deal is going to have to set the market, and he's going to have to take less than that to get something signed before the season.
I still think HOU will be the favorite to sign Correa next offseason if everything remains the same (say, solid/not great regular season and ~140 games played). That said, if he really balls out...I could see a sleeper team luring him away. I know majority of contenders have SS solidified for years to come, but I could definitely see some sleeper teams inking Correa to a mega deal and dealing with the surplus talent thereafter, especially with his willingness to move to 3B. A few under the radar teams I could see being all in on Correa if he does have a great year are CWS, TOR, PHI, and STL. I still think we’re the favorites to land Correa. Who knows, maybe I’m just a homer, but there are going to be teams on the market who will put up big time numbers for Correa if he has the season so many expect. I don’t think it’s safe for HOU to say—welp, most major contenders have their SS already. There is going to be an owner, or several, backing up the Brinks truck irrespective of their current roster if Carlos puts together a great year. Hell, they may even outbid HOU on a subpar year. Will be an interesting development to watch unfold.
For me personally, my attitude towards Carlos changed tremendously when he seemed to be the only person that clapped back and defended his teammates after the scandal fall out. The "you need to know the facts, or you need to STFU" is an all-timer. His pep talk to Framber in the ALCS, just the emergence as a leader, I wanted him to be a lifer after I witnessed that. All that said, while those qualities are great, it still does not justify a $300 mil offer. If I'm the Astros I up my offer to $150 mil, he will reject, then just focus on the season. If he wants $300 mil+ now, he's still going to want that next offseason too, so nothing is really going to change, he is outside of the Astros range both now and next offseason. If for some reason we suck, we move him at the deadline.
