After Joe Biden's first 6-7 wks on the job as POTUS, 60% of Americans approve his job performance thus far and even more backing his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. At a moment of deep political polarization in America, support for Biden’s pandemic response extends across party lines. Overall, 70% of Americans back the Democratic president’s handling of the virus response, including 44% of Republicans. https://www.wcax.com/2021/03/05/ap-norc-poll-americans-largely-back-bidens-virus-response/in view of this, dumbass GOP governors, Abbott, DiSantis, Noem, Reeves, etc., who have ended the mask requirement in their states, are committing political suicide.
Economy about to be tested by fire. We'll see how much of a pass he gets for this year's helm at the Titanic.
But how many flags and hats has he sold?! How many rallies does he have and how many people show up?! What are his ratings like when he appears on televison?! I haven't seen a single boat parade since he's taken office!! Polls and elections are for for losers.
The Apprentice has left the building. The Trump family moves to DC reality show ended as the worst show in American history.
I read an article today that used the term Biden Republicans akin to Reagan Democrats. I’m down with this.
I think it (the real economy) can only go up from here? Not because of any genius moves, but he inherited such a low bar after the pandemic.
I mostly have a bearish outlook, though it's not the consensus. Part of this song and dance is that perception can become reality. If everyone starts saving, the effect is deflationary despite whatever other macro trends are out there. So you generally don't see outlets spreading doom and gloom unless it's for some short term gain or angle. Though with rates at or near zero, saving is trash idea.... Spoiler Corporate Balance sheets are pretty bad that the Fed can't raise rates anytime soon. The tool of last resort is most likely to inflate debt away, which is why you're having the revolt with bond holders and the yield curve. Except rates right now are around pre-covid levels, so the revolt is over Fed's plan to inflate away toxic debt even more. The economy will go up, but even with herd immunity, we need a lot more jobs and some way to resuscitate small biz owners and rent holders going through another possible year of forbearance by extending the CARES act. Industrials and manufacturing are still outputting pretty low. The rest of the world besides China is doing some form of QE and their economies is just as bad. With all that uncertainty, I guess middle class homeowners/stock holders, whose asset valuations have skyrocketed until mid March, will party like it's 1929 but everyone else is not as optimistic. Lower class don't own stocks and will either spend paycheck to paycheck and save the rest. Rich folk can remember last march or 08 and are comfortable taking near zero interest rates or TIPS if it guarantees a fllght of safety. I've been watching a lot of smart people on YT, more than I should for sleeping, and I have a bias for doom and gloom macro. I did some amateur investigating post 08, but totally didn't expect the March collapse last year where the Fed essentially guaranteed corporate debt and swapped it with their own reserve accounts to put that toxic **** out of play. Despite the initial swap, corporations still racked up 2T EoY debt. One analyst remarked that no where in history has there been such a change in BBB rated stock where it can go from investment grade to liquidation so fast, the fallen angels. There will be a correction...for 2016-20's boom+unfunded tax cut. That equities boom generated little to no real/tangible value for people or the corporation, and it was mostly geared towards leveraging cheap low interest rate debt for more share buybacks. Take out the bellweathers or the top ten-twenty companies from indexes and the "value" returned is pretty bleak. Pre-covid, we went through a stretch with an inverted yield curve...then again in march. What was that about? This year is somewhat the same. There is no reward for fiscal prudence, traditional capital building, research, or rehiring talented people. It's dumping **** into bitcoin or riding speculative waves on what the government will do with its dump trucks of infra money. The government's no better either. They don't want to give victories to each other so infra reinvestment has stalled since Dubya. Trump let NYC go to ****, letting their local and small biz rot just because they blue. How's that for the financial capital of the world? So typically the pattern if things go pear shaped is deflation, deflation, then crazy uncontrollable inflation. Some would argue stagflation, but I haven't looked much into it. We all know it's a bubble. Hedge accordingly. As for whether I'm wrong or not, end of March / first week of April will be the first test. I'll edit if I remember what was due. I think it was Treasury Auction skipping and the lack of liquidity. Loan forbearance will probably be extended even if stimulus talks stall, but keep in mind stimulus passing and being active around April means almost 4 full months of belt tightening this year. Even if I'm wrong, there are definitely plays for this.
That would be nice, but I don't think it's true at all. Outside of maybe DeSantis, none of the others will suffer any political consequences at all. Regardless of Biden's approval rating, the country is too partisan and they are all governors of extremely partisan states.
Set asset prices aside for a moment, OP is making a point about voter's perception of Biden, which is more closely tied to employment and quality of life than the stock market. Employment is going up (from a low base). The virus has had such a big impact on many industries (travel, MICE, oil, etc), as we get closer to normal, it's hard to see the economy getting worse than it already is. Even nuclear waste treatment revenue has been affected by covid (I have $pesi), and waiting for reopening to clear the backlog. Removing tariffs on non-strategic stuff could help too (instead of importing the same thing from another country at a higher price...) There have also been periods of high growth and deflation like the industrial revolution. Big tech is recording record profits, and innovation is accelerating. Google... is hoarding cash i dunno what they are saving so much for, but aaple has been buying back stocks, indirectly injecting cash back into the market. Not sure exactly what you are alluding to about the treasury auction (i'm uneducated on it), pls share if you recall. If you are worried about no one buying gov treasury bonds, isn't that what the Fed is for?
Saving when rates are this low is silly, unless you think you're on the brink of a bloodbath and want to buy in at the bottom. Not the craziest idea to think that we're in another real estate bubble, the market is far higher than earnings would suggest, and the fed no longer has room to maneuver.
And even desantis will not only escape responsibility for what he has and continues to do in florida, he will likely benefit. The republican party is *that* broken. DeSantis, Pence tied in 2024 Republican poll https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/541918-desantis-pence-tied-in-2024-republican-poll
There was one tweet that summized this dichotomy perfectly. It was the video of a person who voted for Biden responding to a Trump supporter asking where are the Biden rallies, hats etc. And the person replied "we voted for Biden to do a job, not be a leader of a cult".
This is so true! I have PTSD from Trumps **** job that every time I heard the president did something now on the radio I brace myself until they say it’s Biden.