Usually a major storm passing through like that WILL get you some nice weather for 2-3 days at least . But if you stock up on gas before and your car don’t flood you can always try to get someplace else after a week
We better get some f-ing rain up here in North Texas out of this. It wouldn't surprise me if we didn't get a drop, however.
Euro has also gone east to la/tx border. Looks like we can breathe a little easier for now as there appears to be consensus in the models. Edit: also need to add that this does not mean the threat is over. If the ridge holds for longer than expected then tracks will shift west, but for now things are trending in a positive direction for us in Houston.
Hoping for another Rita and not another Ike. Don't these things usually shift a little east right before landfall? I know that's what Rita did.
Going through these every year or so, it usually seems like they tend to jog East right before landfall on the regular, but Ike didn't. I went and looked it up. Ike's 48 hour model runs were pretty much spot on. It basically followed the mid-black line perfectly for 48 hours.
Go to Space City weather. Basically Eric Berger is feeling better since the models they actually look at have it going to the Texas/Louisiana border and a big consensus is forming there. Edit: His name is Eric, not Bob...like the animated show.
I don't know where this guy found this, but the 12z run of the ECMWF goes right up the Texas/Louisiana border. That looks to be a photoshop of an earlier map........back when Laura was south of the middle of cuba.
He's had a hard on for a Houston landfall for days. Those are EPS ensembles he's posting. He's basically pulling every ensemble or every track together making a guess, a bunch of silly math. Google "Monte Carlo Methods."
He’s still got his odds at 30% for a massive hurricane nailing Houston so he’s not so much jumping the gun as cautiously more optimistic than this morning.
ECMWF has their main global forecast model which shows that Laura goes right up the Texas/Louisiana border. ECMWF also has an ensemble forecast model system that does a sensitivity analysis of a tropical storm that yields spaghetti plots. From ECMWF's website, here is their tropical storm strike probabilities based on their spaghetti plots. I've not noticed the Tropical Storm Strike Probability on ECMWF's website differ from their global model before, but the two currently don't match. This suggests that the spaghetti plots he's showing are legit, and that the sensitivity analysis shows that if the ECMWF's global model is wrong, it will likely be to the west. P.S. This is only a theory based based on the two main outputs from ECMWF not agreeing...for which I've not noticed before.
