Predict Verlander, Cole, McHugh Contracts

Good catch. $224M/7yrs.

 

He’s going to prove he can stay healthy and put up a few seasons like Bregman too sniff that much. At best he’s probably in the 100 mil ballpark over 4-5 years

 

fWAR by age:
Correa:
20: 3.4
21: 5.2
22: 5.2
23: 1.7
24: 4.3 (projected by Steamer)
25: 5.3 (projected by me)
26: 5.4 (projected by me)
Total: 30.4

Machado:
19: 1.3
20: 5.0
21: 2.3
22: 6.6
23: 6.3
24: 2.6
25: 6.2
Total: 30.3

Correa has had more fWAR after 3+ seasons than Machado had at the same point. He won’t have to put up mvp numbers to get $200M. He just has to stay healthy. If he averages 140+ games over the next 3 seasons, he will get at least $200M.

 

I expect him to be on the roster if healthy... does that count?

 

That’s what I thought I said if he proves he can play a full season and put up the numbers he provides when healthy and he can be paid like a Machado, but right now I couldn’t see him getting more than 20 mil a year if he was a FA

 

I will bet you dinner that you are way light on Correa. At least I hope so bc that means he will have been awesome the last three years of his deal. Not by AAV but by total length.

 

Bregman hasn’t put up a few seasons like last years Bregman. Correa needs to prove health but his production on the field has been fantastic.

 

Yes, but that's an irrational low expectation.

 

McHugh deserves the love.

 

Well that's sort-of the case when you come off a year plus of being somewhere between a long man and a set-up guy (a medium guy?), albeit a very good medium guy.

I was sort of meh in his last go around as a starter (2016?), as he was clearly struggling to generate a 3rd quality pitch. He may have that now.. but jury is still out if it plays 3rd time through the order, every 4th day.

 

There are irrationally low expectations for Correa... even though the Astros need him to meet previous expectations if they want to win more than one title in his career here.

 

Sale getting 5/150 from Boston, so adjust your guesses accordingly.

 

Shoulder injury issues may have played into the contract.

 

This sounds like a guy that would be lucky to get under a 5 FIP or ERA.

 

Go Luhnow. You can do it!

 

Verlander wants 2 years SIXTY 9.

 

Is $30MM close enough to Greinke's number for JV? Interesting talk on 610 today, based on this tweet:

Could the deferred money help fit in a JV extension?

 

Verlander 5 years 150M ($30 / yr)
Cole 7 Years 185M (If he plays like he did last year) ($26.4 / yr)
McHugh. don't really know.. $12-$14 / yr?