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Why can’t we resign both Springer & Brantley?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by finsraider, Oct 9, 2020.

  1. finsraider

    finsraider Member

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    Looking at our payroll, I don’t see why we can’t resign both, as long as neither contract goes too long.

    Springer is making $22 million this year. Brantley is making $16.

    If you give Springer a 5 year deal worth $150 million and Brantley a 3 year deal worth $65 million, all you’ve done is reallocate what you were paying Reddick.

    But then there’s the years, but why does that matter? In 2022, almost $70 million falls off your payroll when Verlander and Grienkes contracts expire. $18 million of that is going to Bregman’s raise in 2023, but you still have $50 million to spend.

    Even resigning Correa might be possible depending on how the pitching staff turns out.

    Basically the emergence of our young pitching staff may allow us to keep our entire core together. It will be tight, but it’s possible.
     
  2. sealclubber1016

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    We have other areas we need to address, and money doesn't grow on trees, particularly with Covid killing business.

    Relative to franchise income, nobody is spending more on their team than Crane is already. We need to add a starter, and some relief help.
     
  3. finsraider

    finsraider Member

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    it all comes down to the pitching staff. It will require that at least 4 of our starters and most of the bullpen be internally developed. We need a couple of aces, a couple of solid middle-of-the-rotation players and 2-3 solid bullpen arms. If you get all of that, the entire team can stay together. If half, Correa is gone, but you can still keep Springer and Brantley.

    as far as the corporate side, no idea what decision the major sports are going to come to. I believe they all have major contracts in place, so as long as the games are played and stadiums get back to capacity next season, they should be fine.
     
  4. mightybosstone

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    I would love to know how much of Verlander's contract next year is covered by insurance. Because if Crane is off the hook for a lot of it, I've got to think he's going to be more willing to make offers for these guys. I'd love to keep both, but I think they'd be crazy to not do everything in their power to try and keep Springer. He's a phenomenal offensive and defensive center fielder and such a huge piece of what they've done in the postseason the last four years. I don't think you can assume he's replaceable.

    I agree they need to add a quality starter and some bullpen help. But if Springer gets a pay bump next year, Reddick's off the books and some of Verlander's contract is covered, I could see them feasibly keeping Springer and improving their pitching.
     
  5. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member
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    I don't think it's a matter of can or cannot but should we or shouldn't we based on the needs like @sealclubber1016 said. As much as our young pitchers have grown this year we need a solid anchor in the rotation though, looking at the potential free agents hitting the market after the season's over, there's not a clear cut #1 or #2 starter that would be worth the money.
     
  6. mightybosstone

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    If Valdez, Urquidy and Javier can keep developing as starters and build on this year, that's huge. And then Whitley is the wild card. If Paredes continues developing, could he be a closer? There's enough talent with these young guys to think the Astros don't have to spend $30 million on another starter yet. I'd like to see them add another No. 2 or No. 3 starter in the offseason and 2-3 bullpen arms, but I'm not sure they have to break the bank to do it.
     
  7. bobrek

    bobrek Person, woman, man, camera, TV
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    From what I understand, even if there is insurance, it doesn't help the luxury tax situation.

    @Nook ? @Snake Diggit ?
     
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  8. finsraider

    finsraider Member

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    I have the same question on Verlander. I think the NBA added a provision that allows a team to take a contract off its books if the player isn’t expected to return for the duration of their contract due to health reasons. Money is still paid, but doesn’t count toward payroll. I don’t know whether the MLB has a similar provision. Would obviously make a difference with Verlander.

    my assumption here is that Crane is willing to maintain the same level of spending, but not more. Given the continued performance of this team, I think that’s merited. If that’s the case, and the pitching staff continues to develop like it has in 2020, there’s reason for optimism.
     
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  9. finsraider

    finsraider Member

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    what I’m hopeful for is we get a Brantley-like discount from a starter like you mentioned. A good pitcher that has got their money and wants a ring.
     
  10. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    The top 3 free agent starting pitchers are Bauer, Tanaka, and Stroman. None will be Astros. After that you have a bunch of guys that have not pitched well or have injury concerns like Quintana, Odorizzi, Paxton, Ray, Minor, and Kluber. At best you are taking a gamble and hoping that one of them returns to form. I'm perfectly okay with starting the year with Greinke, Framber, Urquidy, McCullers, and Javier. If needed, address the rotation at the deadline. I would rather resign Springer, Brantley, get a better backup catcher, and a solid reliever compared to overspending for a starter that isn't a sure thing to be an improvement from what we have already.
     
  11. conquistador#11

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    Emirates and the Orlando city MLS team almost struck a deal for 300 million a couple years back. Inter Miami FCi and Qatar struck one for 238 million in sponsorship. You sell these Rich Princes on investing in your MLB squad for $500 million. They'll do it. Drop the cheap "United" airlines sponsorship. With that Money, Crane can afford the luxury tax, sign Springer, Mike, Carlitos, Star pitcher and 2 wives if he was into that. Thinking outside the box here.
    I'm not saying there won't be controversy.
    I don't know how much the Stros get from United but I know American Airlines gives the Cubs 20 million a year. The cubs terminated United, so it has to be less. We need that foreign money, yo.
    [​IMG]


    What do you guys think about Musky's ride? Instead of the minute maid train, you put one of those Elon Musk trucks that look stolen from the Alien movie set, and it shoots off after every homer. Charge Elon 50 mil a year for that. It's like pocket change.
    I just have the best interest of the team, Tania!!!

    Also introduce more Travis Scott gear and Travis Scott Tacos. He's so hot right now.
     
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  12. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    They're not going to sign a top tier FA pitcher. They'll go bargain hunting similar to Charlie Morton, Wade Miley type deals, hope that Javier can gain some stamina this off-season, ensure that Greinke's elbow is preserved for one more season, and send LMJ/Josh James to the same psych doctor that Framber went to. Additionally pray that Whitley has re-dedicated himself to being straight mentally, and there's probably 2 or 3 other minor league guys that will come out of nowhere to compete.... and if all else fails, they'll try to trade for a top tier starter closer to the deadline if needed.

    Springer is the first priority. Then Brantley. Then potential Correa extension if they're willing to listen.

    How they structure the deals/years/early money will depend largely on tax implications and whether or not they think a CBA resolution is probable without a work stoppage.
     
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  13. finsraider

    finsraider Member

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    I think that’s a reasonable argument. I wonder about Morton. He might be past his best, or he might be a guy that Strohm just knows how to handle.

    I don’t think you want to go into the season with just 5 guys who can be a SP. You want at least 7 of those types, so that may mean so bargain shopping. I trust Click and Strohm to figure that out.
     
  14. finsraider

    finsraider Member

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    Yeah that’s pretty much my thinking.

    1) Get Springer or Correa locked up. Don’t let there be the potential to lose both.
    2) Get Brantley resigned.
    3) go back to the other of Springer or Correa and try to nail down a deal. If not, move on.
    4) bargain shop SPs.
    5) bargain shop relievers.
    6) bargain shop a catcher.
     
  15. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Good question, I am not sure the answer. I think you are right and it counts against the tax regardless of insurance or the players status. That said, I don’t think the luxury tax will matter next season, as I don’t see any way Houston gets over $200M even counting Verlander.

    RE: the OP’s point, Houston very likely can afford both Brantley and Springer. The question is: will they be a good value and will signing them prevent Houston from addressing more important needs?

    For me, I think these are Houstons needs going into next season, in order of importance:

    1. Elite hitter who can play CF
    2. ToR SP
    3. Closer


    4. Veteran relief depth
    5. LF
    6. Backup catcher
    7. High ceiling prospects

    In terms of resources they can use to fill those needs, they have a surplus of 2nd tier pitching prospects, and some money to spend. Houston’s 2021 payroll projects at ~$150M, including Verlander (but not including Devenski or Osuna). Let’s say COVID means they need to reduce ~20% over time (total guess), their cap for this season would be ~$170M. Let’s also say they had 70% of Verlander’s salary covered by insurance. That would give them about $40M to play with for 2021. I would offer Springer $150M/5yrs, then use the remaining amount to unearth bargain relievers. I would be active in trade talks for under control pitchers (Marquez, Gray, Boyd, Castillo), but wouldn’t expect to get anything done and would assume adding an ace at the deadline will he needed.

    Bottom line relating to this topic for me is that I expect Houston to have limited funds and fortifying the bullpen is more important than bringing back Brantley.

    Hypothetical 2021 opening day roster:

    CF Springer
    3B Bregman
    2B Altuve
    DH Alvarez
    SS Correa
    LF Tucker
    1B Gurriel
    RF McCormick
    C Maldonado
    Bench: Diaz, Straw, J McCann, Toro
    Rotation: Greinke, Valdez, McCullers, Urquidy, Boyd
    Bullpen: Javier, Pruitt, James, Paredes, Taylor, Smith, Pressly, Treinen
     
    #15 Snake Diggit, Oct 9, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2020
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  16. finsraider

    finsraider Member

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    I recognize Brantley is kind of a luxury, especially when Alvarez returns. He’s just a luxury to which I’ve become accustomed and feel entitled too...lol.

    Springer, in my mind, isn’t expendable. Too important to this team in too many ways.

    if you told me letting Brantley walk would facilitate a Correa extension...I’d be all over that.

    Springer
    Altuve
    Bregman
    Alvarez
    Correa
    Tucker
    Gurriel
    -Figure it out
    Maldonado

    honestly, you could even justify resigning Reddick to play RF if he comes cheap. Not every player has to be an all star, although we’ve come to expect it.

    As far as TOR, I agree that would have to come via trade, likely with Whitley as the centerpiece since it would not be a mid-tier prospects for high-payroll pitcher like the Grienke trade was...we simply can’t afford another in that payroll category. Basically a youngish pitcher with 3 years of control on a team going nowhere.
     
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  17. Mr.Pringles

    Mr.Pringles Member

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    We may not need much relief help depending on a few factors. If Osuna heals (has been throwing for three weeks), Joe Smith doesn’t opt out of 2021, and Pruitt returning from injury.

    I’d love too sign a quality #2-3 type starter and keep Javier in the bullpen/emergency starter role he’s in now.

    1. Grienke
    2. FA Minor/Ray/T.Walker/Odorizzi
    3. Valdez
    4. McCullers
    5. Urquidy/Javier
    6. Osuna
    7. Pressly
    8. J. Smith
    9. Pruitt
    10. Urquidy/Javier
    11. Taylor
    12. Paredes
    13. Scrubb/James/Sneed/Raley/Garcia, etc

    Think there’s enough $$ to make Springer and Brantley top offers. Payroll drops $100 million before adding in Gurriel’s new deal and arbitration increases. And the $33 million they can get back from insurance on JV’s final year.
     
  18. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I think an underrated aspect of roster building on a contender is leaving room for young players to get established. Luhnow didn’t do that and we have seen a lot of good young players let go for peanuts as a result (Laureano and Teoscar Hernandez being primary examples). I would like to see RF kept open to see if one of McCormick, Straw, or Toro can get established as an everyday caliber player. If they all bust (and no other prospect emerges in the meantime), a veteran corner bat can always be added cheaply at the deadline. Not to mention Diaz serves as pretty good insurance.
     
  19. Deuce Rings

    Deuce Rings Contributing Member

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    Under no circumstances do I not pay Springer after his performance in MULTIPLE playoffs where I could make a pretty good argument that he was our best hitter. In my opinion he should've been locked up before Bregman.
     
  20. finsraider

    finsraider Member

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    good point! At Luhnows defense, he was dealing with a lot of variables that Click doesn’t have to. We were basically a team of prospects for the majority of Lunhow’s tenure. He didn’t know who would be THAT guy, so he hoarded prospects to increase the chances he ended up with several of them, knowing that he would have to dump guys that would be blocked.

    Now we are a team of established stars and known prospects. Correa, Altuve, Springer and Bregman are the core, and Alvarez and Tucker obviously deserve their places in the everyday lineup.

    Not a bad idea to leave a corner OF open and just see if anyone takes the spot. Ideally Straws bat catches up to his fielding and we can stick Springer in RF and Tucker in LF.
     
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