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Targeting a quality, young, defensive C

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by durvasa, Dec 30, 2010.

  1. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

    Feb 11, 2006
    Likes Received:
    From the Morey on 610 thread, the GM says that a defensive 5 is the number one priority right now. Well, that isn't new -- he's been saying that since offseason. But obviously with Yao out, and now Chuck gone for who knows how long, adding a defensive presence in the middle has to be the primary target. I think all this talk about the Rockets chasing after Carmelo Anthony is dreaming, and its not really addressing our main weakness either.

    So, who are the targets the Rockets have in mind? I would say the two main criteria would be youth (what's the point in going after a Marcus Camby at this stage?) and defensive acumen. Obviously, the younger the player is, the more growth potential there is for him on the defensive side.

    To get an idea of the pool of NBA players the Rockets may be targeting, see the listing of NBA centers below. I have include MP this season, Age, and ADSPM (adjusted defensive statistical plus-minus). Defense is pretty difficult to quantify, there's no fool-proof way to do it. I used ADSPM as a defensive metric to get a general estimate of the player's defensive impact. This comes from the work of DSMok1, posted here on the APBRmetrics board. Read through that thread and check out the the posted spreadsheet for more details.

    Tm   Player                 MP       Age     ADSPM  
    ORL  Dwight Howard          1057      25     4.58   
    MIL  Larry Sanders          330       22     3.7    
    IND  Jeff Foster            129       34     3.53   
    POR  Marcus Camby           808       36     3.3    
    NOH  D.J. Mbenga            192       30     3.26   
    MIL  Andrew Bogut           854       26     3.18   
    DAL  Alexis Ajinca          19        22     3.09   
    DET  Ben Wallace            755       36     2.74   
    CHI  Joakim Noah            883       25     2.64   
    CHI  Kurt Thomas            183       38     2.46   
    CHI  Omer Asik              349       24     2.39   
    TOR  Joey Dorsey            219       27     2.39   
    DAL  Tyson Chandler         792       28     2.38   
    ORL  Marcin Gortat          396       26     2.35   
    SAS  Tim Duncan             896       34     2.33   
    MIA  Zydrunas Ilgauskas     606       35     2.33   
    MIA  Erick Dampier          214       35     2.23   
    DEN  Chris Andersen         202       32     2.16   
    BOS  Shaquille O'Neal       446       38     1.93   
    NOH  Emeka Okafor           993       28     1.91   
    WAS  JaVale McGee           795       23     1.83   
    CHA  DeSagana Diop          176       29     1.77   
    MIA  Jamaal Magloire        44        32     1.75   
    MIA  Joel Anthony           560       28     1.65   
    SAC  Samuel Dalembert       567       29     1.62   
    BOS  Jermaine O'Neal        168       32     1.6    
    LAC  DeAndre Jordan         768       22     1.52   
    ATL  Al Horford             1152      24     1.44   
    NJN  Johan Petro            271       25     1.41   
    IND  Roy Hibbert            871       24     1.4    
    PHI  Tony Battie            234       34     1.38   
    DAL  Brendan Haywood        540       31     1.34   
    CLE  Anderson Varejao       959       28     1.31   
    MIN  Darko Milicic          752       25     1.22   
    LAL  Theo Ratliff           67        37     1.22   
    DAL  Ian Mahinmi            85        24     1.19   
    WAS  Hilton Armstrong       340       26     1.17   
    CHA  Nazr Mohammed          508       33     1.14   
    ATL  Zaza Pachulia          447       26     1.09   
    SAS  Antonio McDyess        462       36     1.08   
    BOS  Semih Erden            335       24     1.04   
    OKC  Cole Aldrich           55        22     1.03   
    MEM  Marc Gasol             1031      26     1.02   
    NYK  Timofey Mozgov         253       24     0.97   
    DEN  Shelden Williams       557       27     0.97   
    PHI  Spencer Hawes          660       22     0.94   
    OKC  Byron Mullens          48        21     0.89   
    LAC  Chris Kaman            265       28     0.83   
    UTA  Al Jefferson           1148      26     0.66   
    SAC  DeMarcus Cousins       728       20     0.65   
    LAL  Pau Gasol              1222      30     0.62   
    UTA  Francisco Elson        338       34     0.59   
    IND  Solomon Jones          399       26     0.54   
    DET  Chris Wilcox           134       28     0.53   
    NYK  Amare Stoudemire       1174      28     0.49   
    GSW  Andris Biedrins        695       24     0.48   
    PHI  Marreese Speights      298       23     0.45   
    MEM  Hamed Haddadi          22        25     0.45   
    NYK  Ronny Turiaf           449       28     0.33   
    HOU  Chuck Hayes            668       27     0.3    
    DEN  Nene Hilario           850       28     0.25   
    MEM  Hasheem Thabeet        213       23     0.21   
    HOU  Yao Ming               91        30     0.16   
    WAS  Trevor Booker          342       23     0.13   
    POR  Joel Przybilla         87        31     0.08   
    ATL  Jason Collins          266       32     0.06   
    NJN  Brook Lopez            1119      22     0.03   
    NOH  Pops Mensah-Bonsu      35        27     0.02   
    PHO  Channing Frye          935       27    -0.02  
    HOU  Brad Miller            542       34    -0.08  
    ATL  Etan Thomas            18        32    -0.14  
    MIN  Kosta Koufos           233       21    -0.14  
    GSW  Dan Gadzuric           238       32    -0.19  
    CHA  Kwame Brown            299       28    -0.19  
    DEN  Melvin Ely             189       32    -0.22  
    NOH  David Andersen         52        30    -0.23  
    MIL  Brian Skinner          1         34    -0.33  
    NOH  Aaron Gray             32        26    -0.39  
    UTA  Kyrylo Fesenko         194       24    -0.4   
    TOR  David Andersen         150       30    -0.52  
    LAL  Andrew Bynum           153       23    -0.54  
    MIN  Nikola Pekovic         260       25    -0.58  
    PHO  Garret Siler           35        24    -0.62  
    TOR  Solomon Alabi          10        22    -0.62  
    ATL  Josh Powell            420       28    -0.74  
    SAC  Jason Thompson         481       24    -0.87  
    CLE  Ryan Hollins           348       26    -0.91  
    MIN  Anthony Tolliver       356       25    -0.91  
    PHO  Robin Lopez            310       22    -0.99  
    LAC  Jarron Collins         142       32    -1.07  
    GSW  Louis Amundson         190       28    -1.12  
    PHO  Marcin Gortat          79        26    -1.16  
    GSW  David Lee              855       27    -1.28  
    TOR  Andrea Bargnani        938       25    -1.5   
    UTA  Mehmet Okur            57        31    -1.51  
    OKC  Nenad Krstic           559       27    -1.65  
    POR  Fabricio Oberto        45        35    -1.91  
    SAC  Hassan Whiteside       2         21    -2     
    WAS  Hamady Ndiaye          12        24    -4.75  
    Here is a chart I put together, plotting the above players based on their age and ADSPM rating. I scaled the font size of the player names in accordance with the overall estimated value of the player for the current season, based on DSMok1's calculations (if it falls under $1 million dollar threshold, you won't see their name). I also put an orange line onto the graph to demarcate the pool of players that I think the Rockets would (or should) focus on if possible. Its not exact -- obviously I'm not interested in bringing back Joey Dorsey, and I think Varejao or Andersen would be a nice fit too even if they aren't really young.


    Any particular young centers that catch your attention? ADSPM seems to like Larry Sanders a lot (high blk% and stl%, solid rebounding stats, rotation player on a very good defensive team). That Dwight Howard kid looks pretty good too.
    #1 durvasa, Dec 30, 2010
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2010
    9 people like this.
  2. DaDakota

    DaDakota Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Mar 14, 1999
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    The targets I would be going after:

    1. Whiteside Sacremento - 21 year old who led the NCAA in blocked shots and has a 7'7" wingspan, he is behind Cousins, and can probably be had.

    2. DeAndre Jordan - Another young with length, he is an expiring contract, really cheap, but is restricted..and seems to work great with Griffin on the Clips.

    3. JaVale McGhee - Washington is looking to move him or Blatche, we could use a shotblocking big with athleticism.

    4. Thabeet - has been discussed and probably can be had as well.

    5. Robin Lopez - If the Suns are moving him after getting Gortat.

    Those would be my primary upside targets - temporary or filling a need targets.

    1. Camby
    2. Kaman

    And that is probably it.

    #2 DaDakota, Dec 30, 2010
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2010
  3. jaxwithanx

    jaxwithanx Member

    Jun 21, 2009
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    Where is JCDenton when you need him?
  4. sammy

    sammy Contributing Member

    Jul 5, 2002
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    Sweet chart.
  5. Old Man Rock

    Old Man Rock Contributing Member

    Oct 23, 1999
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    Larry Sanders is second behind Dwight Howard. And the guy is raw. I watched this guy play and see him do so many stupid things on the court and make up for it on sheer athleticism. He has so much to learn but he can block shots on anyone in the league and he is quicker than Dwight Howard down the court.

    And to think we could have Sanders with our pick. The truth is the more I watch PPat the more I like him. But Sanders is one of those defensive specialists that every team wants and will be in the league for many years.

    Dorsey ain't to shabby either.
  6. choujie

    choujie Member

    Sep 12, 2002
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    We had Joey Dorsey.
  7. EffTheJazz!!!

    EffTheJazz!!! Member

    Feb 27, 2010
    Likes Received:
    JeVale McGee and DeAndre Jordon
  8. Ramathorn006

    Ramathorn006 Contributing Member

    Nov 9, 2009
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    Javale McGee fits what we are looking for.
  9. mogrod

    mogrod Contributing Member

    Oct 24, 2003
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    I don't know. I have a feeling Morey will find a way to get Gortat like he's been trying for a couple of seasons now.
  10. kevC

    kevC Contributing Member

    Jul 19, 2007
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    I dunno, a small portion of one season is too small of a sample size. Which makes it doubly hard to evaluate young players.
  11. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

    May 16, 2000
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    The Hornets are 4-6 in their last 10, including losses to the Sixers, Pistons, Pacers and T-Wolves. They do have some surprising wins in there - Thunder, dominating the Jazz, the Hawks, etc.

    That said, Emeka gets paid $12.5, $13.5 and $14.5 million over the next 3 years. He is overpaid. But for a competing team, not amazingly so. He is about as consistent as they come, you know what you get, and he is strong defensively.

    Regardless of what happens with CP3, I'd still target Okafor. He's still relatively young, a Houston native, and exactly what the team needs.

    Something like the below works for me.

    Jared Jeffries, Jordan Hill, Budinger



    The Hornets are taking back less in salary, have Jeffries expiring and get actual talent in Hill and Budinger, both who remain locked up for 1 more year at cheap rates. If there's a way to do it keeping Hill, even better. If there's a bigger trade netting CP3 and Okafor that's the best.
    #11 JayZ750, Dec 30, 2010
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2010
  12. LongTimeFan

    LongTimeFan Contributing Member

    Oct 6, 2001
    Likes Received:
    I remember getting into an argument with you about Sanders this summer. You seem to be looking pretty smart right about now. Sanders looks to be completely inept offensively, but defensively he's having a big impact.
  13. DreamShakeFTW

    DreamShakeFTW Member

    Jun 29, 2009
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    'The two main criteria are youth and defensive acumen.'

    Maybe a third criteria should be factored in to remove the clutter:


    No point in looking at the likes of Howard, Bogut, Noah etc.... if there is no chance of getting them.
  14. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

    Feb 16, 2007
    Likes Received:
    A few thoughts:

    1. Joey Dorsey and Hilton Armstrong are retty good there, no? :) Why didn't we ever get our hands on guys like that? Well, the sample sizes are a bit small.

    2. I think Morey looks at more than just an ajusted D +/- number since the margin of error +/- stats tend to be fairly large when you have just one season (or even two seasons) of data to consider. I think these numbers put guys in "neighborhoods" (which is useful) but don't quite "pinpoint" how good a guy is. I also recall Morey acquiring guys whose +/- (adjusted or not) were not great (I think Kyle Lowry had a negative adjusted +/- in Memphis).

    3. Guy I like, and has been discussed before, include Varejao and Gortat. But the #1 factor for any of these is really availability. Can't get a guy if his team doesn't want to trade him to us.
  15. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
    Supporting Member

    May 3, 1999
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    Oddly, the name that pops out for me is Joey Dorsey. He isn't playing much for his team. He isn't getting a lot of block shots, but he is getting a ton of steals.
  16. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
    Supporting Member

    May 3, 1999
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    Also, Thabeet wouldn't be bad if all you were looking for is help defense.
  17. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

    Nov 11, 2007
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    Varejao is the guy I want.

    Difference maker defensively and moves well off the ball. Relatively young and on a really bad team.
    1 person likes this.
  18. topfive

    topfive CF OG
    Supporting Member

    Jun 12, 2002
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    Reading this:

  19. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

    Feb 11, 2006
    Likes Received:
    A point of clarification -- ADSPM is a not an adjusted +/- stat. Its based on player and team boxscore statistics (the ones which seem to predict adjusted +/- the best). That will help reduce the noise that comes with your typical +/- stats, but it also may not capture certain intangibles.
  20. littlemouse

    littlemouse Member

    Apr 10, 2010
    Likes Received:
    thabeet is a good choice

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