[RAPM] How do the Rockets compare with other contenders?

Fit, chemistry, strategy are all important elements in building a contender, as we continue to see McHale and Co. tinker with those throughout preseason and into the regular season. However, far and away the biggest contributor to winning in the NBA is talent. So while we wonder how Asik will fit next to Howard, who will start at PG, and will we even play a PF, the number #1 question to ask is still: do we have enough talent?

RAPM is the closest thing we have today in measuring exactly how 'good' players are. It has it's flaws and quirks, but is much more useful than other so called 'advanced stats', many of which are in my opinion broken. Mr. Doolittle needs to quit trying to make WARP happen: it won't.

So how do the Rockets compare with other contenders? How have we structured our team? Do we have enough talent? I think it is a fun exercise to take a look at the RAPM of the rotations of all of the contenders.

http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/

Rockets:

Stars

Howard +5.5
Harden +5.1

Roleplayers

Asik +4.5 (impact limited due to minutes)
Lin +0.4
Beverley +0.4
Parsons -0.1
Brewer -1.2
Casspi -1.3
Garcia -1.7

Jones -2.6
Montiejunas -3.7

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Heat:

Stars

Lebron +10.1
Wade +4.5

Roleplayers

Bosh +1.9
Andersen +5.2 (impact limited due to minutes)
Chalmers +0.5
Battier -0.3
Ray Allen -1.6
Haslem -2.0
Cole -6.1

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Bulls:

Stars

Rose +4.3
Noah +4.6

Roleplayers

Gibson +2.5
Deng +1.4
Butler +1.0
Dunleavy +0.2
Hinrich -0.2
Mohammed -1.0
Boozer -1.1

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Spurs:

Stars

Duncan +7.3
Parker +3.3

Roleplayers

Ginobili +3.7 (impact limited due to minutes)
Splitter +3.7 (impact limited due to minutes)
Leonard +1.5
Green +0.4
Bonner -0.6
Diaw -0.9

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Thunder:

Stars

Durant +8.0
Westbrook +5.3

Roleplayers

Ibaka +2.7
Collison +1.5
Sefolosha +0.6
Perkins -1.4
Jackson -2.7

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Clippers:

Stars

Paul +8.2
Griffin +4.5

Roleplayers

Jordan +3.0
Barnes +0.9
Dudley +0.7
Crawford -0.9
Redick -1.3
Collison -1.3
Hollins -2.1

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Grizzlies:

Stars

Gasol +6.0
Conley +5.1

Roleplayers

Randolph +1.4
Koufos +1.8
Allen +1.0
Davis -0.3
Prince -0.8
Miller -1.1
Pondexter -2.1
Bayless -2.2
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A few observations:

1. The 'Big 3' is a myth in the NBA. It does not exist on any roster. To qualify as a 'star', in my view, you have to produce around a +4.0 level and capable of playing 35 MPG or more. Every contender is structured similarly, built around two star players, and the Rockets are no different. The need for a 3rd star on the Rockets is questionable, it would be a luxury for sure, but a necessity? That depends on exactly how good Harden/Howard are.

2. Are the Rockets roleplayers good enough? At first glace, outside of Asik, the depth of the talent on this team seems to be lacking compared to other contenders. However, as a relatively young team, a few have room to improve. It will be imperative for Lin/Parsons/Beverley to make leaps and bounds this year, and that is the trio I see most capable of taking that step. Even Casspi/Garcia/Brewer can improve on last years numbers, either from a change in role or recovery from injury. As we currently stand, our roleplayers do not stack up with other contenders, but almost every single one of them have the ability to change that.

3. Are the Rockets stars good enough? This is the question that matters the most, because the team will only go as far as its top shelf talent will take it.

Going by last years numbers, Harden/Howard are good enough to compete, but not good enough to do it alone. If nothing changes, the team will need to either upgrade its roleplayers with multiple impact players like the Spurs, or acquire a legitimate 3rd star.

However, last year's numbers need to be put into perspective. James Harden was 23 years old. He is playing at a superstar level, but still young enough to take it to another level. Dwight Howard historically has been a +9 to +10 player the last few years, equal with Lebron James as the best player in the NBA! Even if he never reaches that level again, on a team that fits his strengths more than the Lakers, can he get back to +7 or +8?

If either of those two cases comes true, the Rockets stars will be good enough to see eye to eye with the best combos in the entire league, including Lebron/Wade.

4. Had to stick this in here:

Dmo/Jones. Almost no contending team in the league have players this bad in their rotations. And certainly no one starts them. Unless you have the best player in the world in Lebron James, then you can carry a guy like Norris Cole. Otherwise, players this caliber simply do not play.

 

Wins projections for contenders based on RAPM from link:

Heat 57
Thunder 57
Rockets 56
Nets 55
Bulls 53
Clippers 53
Grizzlies 51
Spurs 50

Bulls and Spurs seem low, I think that is where the +5 wins from coaching comes to play, something RAPM does not factor.

I listed the players individually just to see how these teams were constructed, their quality of roleplayers etc. For overall strength and win projections you have to adjusted for minutes and player growth/decline. Something your link attempts to do.

 

Actually, not sure how this rates the Rockets so high relative to teams like the Bulls/Clippers/Grizz/Spurs. Unless he is somehow projecting Asik to play 30 MPG this year without any drawbacks.

 

A few more notes:

1. Harden was a +5.1 last year which accounts for -0.9 on the defensive end. -0.9 is not earth shattering or irreparable, nothing like the, say, -5.6 of a Ben Gordon. However, it is worthy to note that Harden is the only player in the top 19 in the league with a negative defensive rating. In fact, along with Stephen Curry, they are the only two players in the top 30 with negative ratings.

If Harden simply improved his defense to league average, he would become a top 5 player instantly. I don't think that is something that's out of the question, or even unlikely. The area young players(especially guards) improve the most the first few years in the league is defense.

2. Jeremy Lin and Patrick Beverley are dead even both at +0.4 according to RAPM. So no insights there for McHale.

As a rookie, +0.4 is extremely promising for Beverley. Young players new to the league generally start off as negatives(as you would expect). Parsons was only a -0.7 during his strong rookie year. And only breakeven last year. Jimmy Butler, who Bulls fans are head over heals for, is +1.0 in his second year. Any way you look at it, a positive rating for Beverley as a rookie is very strong, and portends well for his growth.

+0.4 is also decent for Lin in basically his 2nd season. However, in a more ball dominate and high usage role on the Knicks, his RAPM in essentially his rookie year was +2.2. That is out of the ball park, and exactly the reason why Morey signed him to that contract. If you are a +2.2 player as a rookie, you are pretty much on your way to becoming an allstar if you continue down that path. A reduced role along with recovering from injury caused last year's decline.

The Rockets plan this year may be to bring him off the bench in a more high usage role to revitalize the NY Lin. If he comes back to a +3.0ish level in that role, it might just be one of the key catalysts for our chances of contention this year. This isn't "projection" or anything based on "potential". It is based on what he already did in that role. As Morey would say, when you bet on something that's already happened before, the odds for you being right are increased.

I would rank the key question marks this season as:

a) How good is Howard? LA Howard, Orlando Howard, or somewhere in between?

b) Can Asik play 25 MPG or more on this team?

c) Can we bring back Linsanity in a high usage 6th man role?

Those 3 questions will have the biggest impact on our team this year, IMO.