[MacMahon] 'Crank it to 11': Mike D'Antoni and the Rockets are all-in on small ball

"Well, we weren't going to win the other way for sure. This is the only chance we have. And I think it's a good chance."

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/29675105/why-mike-dantoni-rockets-betting-big-small-ball



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Who cares if conventional NBA wisdom says you can't win playing such extreme small ball? Not D'Antoni, and not Rockets general manager Daryl Morey.

D'Antoni, who is in the last season of his contract, doesn't want to have similar regrets about his Rockets tenure as he has with the Suns. This time, he doesn't want to wonder what if he'd really followed his instincts, supported by analytics.

"If you think something's right and the numbers prove it's right, then go all-in," D'Antoni said. "You can't muddy the waters. You can't just go halfway."

D'Antoni departed Phoenix a dozen years ago, wondering what could have been if he didn't allow doubts to keep the Suns from straying too far from the NBA norms.

"His instincts in Phoenix -- as you know, he's one of the all-time true innovators -- was to put it at 10," Morey said. "The noise dialed him back to six or seven.

"Then when he got here, we were like, 'Go full Spinal Tap. Crank it to 11.'"

[...]

AS MOREY REMEMBERS, the first seeds for Houston's small-ball shift were planted during the 2018 playoffs. More specifically, and somewhat ironically, it happened during the Western Conference finals against the Kerr-coached Golden State Warriors.

The so-called "Hamptons Five," the Warriors' starting lineup with sixth man Andre Iguodala replacing the center, had been dominant enough to be widely known by nickname status. Kerr was selective about how often he used it, not wanting to wear out 6-foot-6 Draymond Green by playing him at center too much, but that lineup often went on thrilling, game-changing runs.

If Houston couldn't match up with the "Hamptons Five," the Rockets really had no chance to get past Golden State.

Sticking with center Clint Capela (minus-49 in the seven-game series) clearly wasn't the solution. But the Rockets were plus-26 in 91 minutes during the series when 6-foot-6 P.J. Tucker played center with James Harden on the floor, a look Houston had dabbled with throughout that season.

By the summer of 2019, the belief had grown within the Rockets organization that scrapping a traditional starting center could be beneficial under the right circumstances.

Part of the logic, as Morey explained, was that defensive game plans against Harden essentially eliminated the pick-and-roll from the isolation-heavy Rockets' offense. Plus, the Rockets were at their best defensively when switching every screen -- something Capela could do well by center standards but was better suited to playing an extra wing.

"It's never like a light goes off," D'Antoni said. "We kind of tiptoed in there like, 'Eh, what do you think?' Because you don't want to be that idiot out there by yourself. But we just kept talking and talking. It just made more sense."

The Rockets were ready to commit to full-time small ball if they could get Jimmy Butler last summer, according to team sources. A Butler sign-and-trade would have required Morey to perform some salary cap gymnastics, but as was reported at the time, he had trades lined up to move the eight-figure salaries of Capela and Eric Gordon, contingent on Butler's commitment.

That was the Rockets' Plan A, and they were optimistic that they'd be able to pull it off as free agency neared, based on Butler's discussions with Harden. Then, according to a team source, Butler "ghosted" them, not returning calls and texts before he agreed to a deal with the Miami Heat.

The Rockets had to smooth over any hard feelings with Gordon (who got a four-year, $76 million contract extension) and Capela. They shook up the roster by shipping Chris Paul and a package of picks to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Russell Westbrook, whose ability to wreak havoc in the open court added to the reasons going small made sense for the Rockets.

Capela's absences due to injury contributed to the Rockets' analytics ammunition that pointed to small ball as their best bet. Houston went 10-1 in games missed by Capela while he was still on the team this season, with the lone loss a game in which Harden and Westbrook also missed.

The Rockets pinpointed forward Robert Covington as "the perfect guy for this kind of style," Morey said. Houston pushed hard to acquire Covington, who groomed his 3-and-D game with the Rockets' G League team before becoming a quality NBA starter for the Philadelphia 76ers and Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Rockets pounced when presented with the opportunity to give up Capela and a first-round pick in the four-team deal that brought Covington from Minnesota to Houston. There was consensus among the Rockets' decision-makers, but D'Antoni was perhaps the most adamant of the group, Morey said.

"I would say most coaches would be nervous," he said. "Mike was like, 'Let's just do this the whole way.' That kind of confidence coming from your coach really makes things easier."

D'Antoni learned in Phoenix that to "follow the noise" instead of your instinct and analytical evidence is counterproductive. He felt strongly that playing small was the Rockets' best path to compete for a title. The numbers from Morey's analytics army supported it. Houston went all-in without hesitation.

"And there's no crime in not quite getting there," D'Antoni said. "The worst is if you don't [lean in] all the way."

This decision elicited reactions -- many skeptical, many fascinated, some a mix of both -- across the league. That included a coach of a team whose run of winning the West five straight seasons had come to an unceremonious halt this year.

"When they just said, 'Screw it, let's go all small,' I admired it," Kerr said. "I like people that go for it. Who knows if it's going to work or not? I do know it's really difficult to guard."

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BEFORE SHAWN MARION was a key to the "Seven Seconds or Less" Suns, he was a skeptic.

The 6-foot-7 Marion had been an All-Star as a small forward. Now D'Antoni wanted him to match up with Duncan, with Nowitzki, with Minnesota's Kevin Garnett, with Sacramento's Chris Webber? It took "The Matrix" some time to come around.

"Finally, I was like, 'F--- it, I accept it as a challenge.' And it was a challenge," Marion said. "It wasn't easy, but what I was able to do and how I was able to do it, ain't too many guys in the league who could have done it. Not for no full year.

"Guys can easily switch off and guard for a few minutes here and there or a couple of possessions here and there. Not for a whole game or a whole season. ... They'd get burnt out."

Marion says he believes that toll was evident on Tucker, the league's shortest starting center by several inches, before the NBA season was suspended because of the coronavirus pandemic on March 11.

In Tucker, Marion saw a player who was running on fumes, having been forced to bang with bigger bodies every night. The numbers support that theory, as Tucker had a team-worst net rating of minus-19.2 points per 100 possessions during the last five games before the shutdown, with the Rockets giving up 118.9 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor.

"He's almost too tired physically to shoot the ball, because they're wearing him out," Marion said. (Tucker shot 25% from 3-point range the last five games before the season's suspension, as did Harden, who also guards primarily centers and power forwards.)

The slump before the season was suspended actually doesn't concern the Rockets too much. It's a small sample size, and Morey notes that the Rockets have had a tendency all season not to be as energetic against teams they are "quote-unquote supposed to beat every night," such as the three sub-.500 teams who beat Houston during that stretch.

D'Antoni and Morey do acknowledge a concern about how they'd fare defending, say, Lakers superstar Anthony Davis for a seven-game series. They also note that's a concern for any team who faces the Lakers, regardless of size, so the Rockets will take their chances forcing tall stars such as Davis and Denver's Nikola Jokic to defend 3-point shooters on the other end.

"A lot of people have guarded [Davis]. It hasn't worked," D'Antoni said with a laugh. "I don't care who guards him. He's still going to be Anthony Davis. We're not going to all of a sudden turn him into a pedestrian player."

Yes, D'Antoni acknowledged, the Rockets' small-ball philosophy relies on its players to exert extraordinary energy to compete defensively and rebound. It's on the glass where the Rockets have been most vulnerable, ranking 29th of 30 teams in rebounding percentage (46.1) since the trade for Covington.

Opposing coaches privately wonder what the cumulative effect of the Rockets competing against bigger foes will be during a playoff series.

"It's tough, but winning's hard," D'Antoni said. "If you're going to win, you're going to be dog-tired at the end. That cracks me up: 'Oh, they're going to be tired.' Well, yeah! It's a tough league."

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The NBA has adapted since the "Seven Seconds or Less" Suns took the league by storm, but it has still followed D'Antoni's lead as the Rockets continue to push the boundaries of NBA offenses.

Should he fall short this time, at least it won't be due to half-measures.

"People say, 'Well, you can't win,'" D'Antoni said, referring to a deep playoff run. "Well, we weren't going to win the other way for sure. I get the arguments, I get it, but this is the only chance we have. And I think it's a good chance."