1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

Houston vs. Chicago: Who Can Offer More?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by crash5179, Jun 23, 2014.

  1. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2000
    Messages:
    16,443
    Likes Received:
    1,233
    I wanted to create a thread with facts on what Houston and Chicago can offer to Carmelo Anthony as a free agent. There are posts scattered throughout other threads that discus (with different levels of accuracy) what each team can offer and how they get to that number. Bill Simmons released a tweet that seemed mostly absurd, claiming that it was extremely doable for Chicago to acquire both Aaron Afflalo and Melo with out giving up Taj Gibson, Joakim Noah, Jimmy Butler or Derrick Rose. But is it really?

    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>NBA peeps are worried about the Bulls right now. A starting 5 of Rose, Afflalo, Carmelo, Taj + Noah w/ Butler as 6th man is VERY doable.</p>&mdash; Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) <a href="https://twitter.com/BillSimmons/statuses/480758529540624385">June 22, 2014</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

    My goal is to make the facts plain enough, that the only real debate would be how far are the Bulls and Rockets willing to go in order to acquire Melo and can each team really shed the required salary.

    Salary Cap figures are based on Shamsports.com:
    http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/rockets.jsp
    http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/bulls.jsp

    Disclaimer:
    I tried to make this as accurate and factual as possible by including every single salary related detail in my scenarios. However, I am not David Weiner or Larry Coon so not only is it possible that there is a mistake somewhere but it’s likely there is a mistake somewhere. If you see a mistake let me know and I will edit this post with the corrected numbers.

    I start out looking at how each team can create enough money to sign Melo out right as a free agent. I will then look at possible sign and trade scenarios. Although I am not an insider, I obviously have better insight into the Rockets roster than I do with the Bulls roster.

    2014/2015 NBA Salary Cap
    The actual figures for next season’s salary cap will not be released until after the first week in July. For this scenario I will use the salary cap projection of $63,200,000 released by the NBA earlier this year.

    http://cbafaq.com/blog/?p=304

    Houston Rockets:
    I have the Rockets shedding the salaries of Jeremy Lin, Omer Asik and all of their non-rotation players. Shedding the contracts of the non-rotation players was pretty easy since most had non-guaranteed contracts or their contracts are expired or in Francisco Garcia’s case, he decided not to pick up his player option (http://www.csnnw.com/nba/sources-gar...e-agent-summer). Donatas Motiajunas was not a rotation player in the play-offs but he was one in the regular season so I kept him on the roster. Isaiah Canaan is the one player who never cracked the rotation that I kept on the roster. By shedding Canaan’s salary the Rockets would only save about $300,000 dollars in cap space (after figuring in the additional incomplete roster charge).

    Rockets 2014/2015 Salary $64,036,935
    - Francisco Garcia declining his player option - $1,316,809
    - Trade Asik & Lin for cap space - $16,749,000
    - Cut Omri Caspi non-guaranteed contract - $1,063,384
    - Cut Robert Covington non-guaranteed contract - $816,482
    - Cut Josh Powell non-guaranteed contract – $1,310,286
    - Decline Chandler Parsons option - $964,750 (note 1)
    - Parsons unrestricted free agent roster charge + $1,760,350
    - Add incomplete roster charge for 4 spots + $2,029,464 (note 2)
    - Trade the 1st round pick to prevent $991,000 Cap Hold (note 3)
    Rockets Adjusted Salary after Roster Moves $45,606,038

    The Rockets Free Agent Offer
    Assuming a 2014/2015 salary cap of $63,200,000 and a Rockets salary of $45,606,038, The Rockets will be able to offer a free agent a first year salary of $17,593,962.

    If Melo accepts the Rockets offer, their roster would look like this:
    PG: Patrick Beverley $915,243 / Isaiah Canaan $816,482
    SG: James Harden $14,728,844 / Troy Danials $816,482
    SF: Chandler Parsons $1,760,350 (cap hold)
    PF: Carmelo Anthony $17,593,962/ Terrence Jones $1,618,680
    C: Dwight Howard $21,436,271/ Donatas Motiejunas $1,483,920
    Of course if the Rockets could possibly shed additional salary but there are a finite number of teams that have the ability to absorb salary with out giving any back. If you think the Rockets can shed more salary then just subtract that salary listed from $45,606,038 just remember to add the extra roster charge of $507,336 for each additional player removed from the roster.

    Sign & Trade Option:
    The Rockets could always go the sign and trade rout as well. If Phil knows he is losing Anthony would he be willing to sign and trade him for Lin, Asik and the Rockets 1st and 2nd round picks this year? The Rockets could sweeten the deal by throwing in Terrence Jones.

    Note 1:
    The Rockets will likely make Chandler Parsons the qualifying offer $2,875,130 to keep him a Restricted Free Agent. However, the Rockets can rescind the qualifying offer if they need the extra money for signing Melo. Parsons would then become an Unrestricted Free Agent but the Rockets would retain his bird rights. No team would be able to out bid the Rockets but Parsons would be under no obligation to accept the Rockets offer. The Rockets would still be charged a normal cap hold of $1,760,350 as a full bird free agent (190% of his current salary). My numbers for Chandler Parsons comes directly from the article written by David Weiner which I have included the link to.

    http://rockets.clutchfans.net/5862/chandler-parsons-contract-exercise-decline-team-option/
    http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q38


    Note 2:
    NBA teams are required to maintain a 12-man roster at minimum. Teams are assessed an incomplete roster charge equivalent to the rookie minimum player salary for each spot less than 12. In my scenario the Rockets have 7 players under contract and additionally they have a cap hold for Chandler Parsons, which gives them 8 occupied roster spots out of 12 required. The math at this point is simple, 4 empty roster spots at $507,336 each.

    http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q14
    http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q16

    Note 3:
    First round picks are assessed a cap hold. Cap holds are based on the previously bargained rookie wage scale. The Rockets currently hold the 25th pick in the 2014 draft, which is valued at $991,000. The Rockets will need to trade this to prevent the salary cap charge.

    http://www.cbafaq.com/scale2011.htm

    Chicago Bulls
    Bill Simmons tweeted that the Bulls could get both Aaron Afflalo and Carmelo Anthony and still keep, Joakim Noah, Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson so that is the roster I will start with. Mike Dunleavy, Tony Snell and Greg Smith are the only guaranteed contracts the Bulls will have to move. Technically, Boozer is also guaranteed but for this scenario we are going to amnesty him.

    Bulls 2014/2015 Salary 68,020,818
    - Amnesty Carlos Boozer - $16,800,000
    - Cut Ronnie Brewer non-guaranteed contract - $1,310,286
    - Cut Mike James non-guaranteed contract - $1,448,490
    - Cut Louis Amundson non-guaranteed contract - $1,310,286
    - Trade for cap relief Greg Smith contract - $948,163
    - Trade for cap relief Tony Snell contract - $1,472,400
    - Trade for cap relief Mike Dunleavy contract - $3,326,235
    - Trade #16 draft pick to prevent $1,468,900 cap hold (note 4)
    - Trade #19 draft pick to prevent $1,266,000 cap hold (note 4)
    - Add incomplete roster charge for 8 spots + $4,058,688 (note 5)
    Bulls Adjusted Salary after Salary Moves $45,462,828

    The Bulls Free Agent Offer
    Assuming a 2014/2015-salary cap of $63,200,000 and a Bulls salary of $45,462,828, The Bulls will be able to offer a free agent a first year salary of $17,737,172.

    If Melo accepts the Bulls offer, their roster would look like this:
    PG Derrick Rose $18,862,876
    SG Jimmy Butler $2,008,748
    SF Carmelo Anthony $17,737,172
    PF Taj Gibson $8,000,000
    C Joakim Noah $12,200,000

    Additionally, Aaron Afflalo makes $7,500,00 next season. So if you somehow trade for him you effectively have to subtract that from what the Bulls can offer Melo. The new offer would be $10,237,172 which is not something I think Melo would consider.

    Sign & Trade Option:
    Of course it’s hard to judge what other GM’s value in terms of players. Perhaps Orlando would accept some combination of players the Bulls plan on shedding plus Meritoc and one of the Bulls 1st round picks for Afflalo. I doubt it but you never know. Then if Phil knows for certain that Anthony is leaving New York he might be willing to sign and trade Melo for Boozer and the Bulls other 1st round pick.

    Note 4:
    As is the case with the Rockets, all teams are assessed a cap hold for first round picks. In order for the Bulls to avoid the 2.7 million in cap holds they will need to trade away the picks. Obviously they can use the pick in conjunction with trading one of their guaranteed contracts or even add it in a sign and trade. Regardless, if the Bulls are serious about signing Melo as a free agent, the picks will have to be traded away.

    Note 5:
    If the Bulls shed all of the contracts except Rose, Noah, Butler and Gibson; they will be 8 spots shy of the required 12. As stated earlier, there is an incomplete roster charge of $507,336 per roster unfilled roster spot less then 12.

    Summery
    Both the Rockets and the Bulls can possibly create cap room to sign Carmelo Anthony and still maintain a roster capable of challenging for a conference title and possibly an NBA title. In the scenario’s above the Bulls can offer Carmelo $143,210 more than the Rockets. Are two 1st round picks and Carlos Boozer worth more than Omer Asik, Terrence Jones, Jeremy Lin and a 1st and 2nd round pick? Maybe Phil would laugh at both of those deals maybe he loves one or the other.

    Another factor to consider is that while the Bulls can offer Carmelo $143,210 more than the Rockets, he would have to pay state income tax against 100% of his Chicago salary as opposed to no state income tax in Texas. Of course the real wild card in Carmelo’s decision might be La La. Where does she want to live and how much of a voice does she have in the decision?

    Last, which roster would Carmelo value more. We have argued this in other threads but at the end of the day it’s who Melo values the most not us. Both teams have the ability to put a championship roster around Melo providing Derrick Rose can come back healthy and as the same player he was prior to his injury over 2 seasons ago.
     
    15 people like this.
  2. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2002
    Messages:
    49,329
    Likes Received:
    20,491
    Nice summation, crash. I'm surprised Chicago and the Rockets are that close after all the machinations. I hope you have things sorted out correctly. If you don't, aelliot's gonna come in here and bust your chops! ;-)-
     
  3. CrazyDave

    CrazyDave Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2002
    Messages:
    6,027
    Likes Received:
    435
    It's summery, people suppose be ornery.
     
  4. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2008
    Messages:
    80,838
    Likes Received:
    80,344
  5. sjackson0

    sjackson0 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2002
    Messages:
    1,494
    Likes Received:
    160
    Thanks Crash! Awesome
     
  6. Gimmmethemike

    Gimmmethemike Member

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2009
    Messages:
    2,812
    Likes Received:
    240
  7. Rox>Mavs

    Rox>Mavs Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2010
    Messages:
    2,539
    Likes Received:
    1,161
    Thank you for this thread!!! Been trying to scout info in all the threads on my own. So helpful!
     
  8. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2000
    Messages:
    16,443
    Likes Received:
    1,233
    Nice find J.R.

    It's good to see the jock tax laid out in that graphic. Of course I don't realistically think Houston or Chicago can offer Melo that much money. If the Bulls offer up Taj Gibson in a trade to shed salary cap I guess it could happen but that would really leave the Bulls depleted and their roster a lot less desirable IMO.
     
  9. Plowman

    Plowman Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 1999
    Messages:
    8,944
    Likes Received:
    6,628
    Nice breakdown Crash....very nice.

    Like you said, it's not just about who can offer more $$$, though.

    It's all about where Melo Yellow wants to go. He's in the driver's seat....big leverage for that team.

    LaLa has gotten to do the NY thing......

    And even though it's the easier route in the East, you just can't count on Rose staying healthy...way too much downside risk for him. Melo wants perennial contender status West or East.

    Barring us getting a bigger name, Melo's coming to Houston. (or in addition to another in a blockbuster of blockbusters)
     
    #9 Plowman, Jun 23, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2014
  10. d12babymamas

    d12babymamas Member

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2013
    Messages:
    1,608
    Likes Received:
    34
    Yikes...that Bull's lineup looks formidable...

    Nice post OP. One thing I would add is since the East is so weak, Melo would have a better chance of reaching the finals by joining a team like the Bulls.
     
  11. d12babymamas

    d12babymamas Member

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2013
    Messages:
    1,608
    Likes Received:
    34
    LOL what plowman said...haha
     
    1 person likes this.
  12. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2010
    Messages:
    11,607
    Likes Received:
    1,068
    trade nodmo and that releases another million, i'd like to keep jones as well, but sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do.
     
  13. d12babymamas

    d12babymamas Member

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2013
    Messages:
    1,608
    Likes Received:
    34
    is true too I gues....Rose may not ever be the player that he once was....
     
  14. caneks

    caneks Rookie

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2007
    Messages:
    1,414
    Likes Received:
    202
    Chandler Parsons $1,760,350, even after he becomes a RFA?
     
  15. LonghornFan

    LonghornFan Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2002
    Messages:
    15,696
    Likes Received:
    2,600
    Excellent, excellent post. Repped.
     
  16. pugsly8422

    pugsly8422 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2002
    Messages:
    3,258
    Likes Received:
    334
    Great write up. I'm glad you mentioned the state income tax. One thing about that which some people may not realize, is that you pay the tax only for the games played in that state. So it's not a tax savings on the full 100%, but more like 40% since there are states other than Texas that do not have a state tax. I believe the current Illinois rate is 5%.

    Assuming both teams play the same # of games in states with a state tax, the difference would be the 41 games the Bulls play in Illinois versus the 41 the Rockets play in Texas.

    Illionis tax paid by Bulls - $17,737,172/2*5%= $443,429

    Difference between Bulls & Rockets max offer $143,210

    So in the end, Carmelo could pocket an additional $300,219 playing in Houston versus Chicago. With that being pocket change to Melo and probably having little to no impact on the decision, like Crash mentioned, I think Lala will have a big say in the final decision.

    One thing this didn't include is the future tax. If he signs a 4 year contract, that will be another 3 years of taxes. With max raises, he could lose about $1.5m after it's all said and done.


    Edit: As usual, J.R. beats (insert name of 90% of posters here, this time mine) to it!
     
    #16 pugsly8422, Jun 23, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2014
  17. micah1j

    micah1j Member

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2002
    Messages:
    2,635
    Likes Received:
    61
    you need to include the Rockets cutting Canaan & Daniels and trading D-Mo. They can pick Canaan & Daniels back up after signing Melo.

    That will knock the salary down to 44,011,252 making the Melo's contract start at $19,188,748
     
  18. thephatp

    thephatp Contributing Member

    Joined:
    May 20, 2005
    Messages:
    627
    Likes Received:
    31
    Honest question--why do you point this out?

    I'm curious why people continue to point out that the path is easier in the East. If nothing else, this year's finals should show that that "easier path" is worthless if you can compete in the Finals. And the bulls wouldn't compete (IMHO) against the Spurs or Thunder, or a Clippers team with LBJ.

    This point feels very overplayed to me. No offense to you d12babymamas, I just don't understand the point.

    Melo, LBJ -- They want to WIN in the Finals, not just make it to the Finals. Ask LBJ what is more appealing between those two, because he's now lived it.
     
  19. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2000
    Messages:
    16,443
    Likes Received:
    1,233
    No, that is assuming Houston pulls it's qualifying offer from Chandler to create additional cap room to sign Melo. The $1,760,350 is the amount of the cap hold required to maintain his bird rights. In this scenario Chandler is an unrestricted free agent. By making Chandler an unrestricted free agent the Rockets clear about a million in cap space.
     
  20. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2003
    Messages:
    49,622
    Likes Received:
    18,412
    Seriously - the tax thing is a lot more complicated than that chart makes it look - the "no state income tax" thing is a bit overused - it helps but like you said it doesn't amount to as much as conventional wisdom believes
     

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now