All season, we've operated under the presumption that the Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs would be the likely protagonists in the Western Conference finals. And even though San Antonio has hit its rough patches from time to time, we've given the Spurs the benefit of the doubt based on their history and because they've remained pretty imposing when all three stars were healthy. But now? Now we have to look at different scenarios. Somebody will play the Lakers in the conference finals in May. (That, or we'll have the lowest-rated conference finals since the Kings and Rockets threw down in 1981.) But it's hard to imagine San Antonio as that team now that Manu Ginobili is out for the season with a stress fracture in his right leg. Consider these issues: 1. The Spurs are 32-11 when Ginobili plays but only 17-16 when he's out. 2. Tim Duncan's nagging quad problem has limited him to some very un-Duncan-like production of late. (Witness his double-single against the Cavs on Sunday.) 3. The Spurs have lost some key games lately even with Ginobili in the mix. Thus, the Spurs' odds of surviving two playoff rounds in the West to get to the conference finals look increasingly suspect. The Spurs are down to essentially 1½ stars from their Big Three, and the one chink in the armor of the army of selfless role players who fill the rest of the roster is that they aren't well equipped to step up in rank. As useful as snipers such as Roger Mason and Matt Bonner may be, they won't create many shots by themselves. So although San Antonio might start the playoffs with the same No. 3 seed it held a year ago when it made the West finals, it's hard to see the Spurs surviving more than one round -- if that -- in a Western Conference where little separates the second-best team from the 8-seed. And if San Antonio takes a step back, it will clear the way for another team. Barring a major upset, somebody will play L.A. next month for a spot in the NBA Finals. And if that somebody isn't San Antonio, it will be one of the following six teams. Here's how I size them up: 1. Denver The Nuggets appear to be the big winners here for multiple reasons. First, Denver now has a sugarcoated path to 2-seed status in the Western Conference, which would provide home-court advantage in the two rounds it would need to win before the conference finals. Second, the Nuggets' opposition just got easier: Either they won't face the Spurs in the second round or will face a greatly diminished Spurs squad. Remember, it was San Antonio that bounced Denver in five games in both the 2005 and 2007 playoffs. Pitfalls still loom, however. A dangerous Utah team lurks as a potential first-round opponent, and the Jazz wouldn't be nearly as affected by the mile-high altitude as Denver's other potential opponents. Meanwhile, the Nuggies' paper-thin frontcourt means a single injury could deep-six their hopes. But the biggest reason to like Denver is that it has the highest ceiling of the group. The Nuggets have won big despite an off year from Carmelo Anthony, but if he dials it up in the playoffs and gets his wayward stroke on target (he's been more accurate during Denver's seven-game winning streak, shooting 51 percent), this team looks extremely dangerous. 2. Houston The Rockets have been 13-2 at home since Tracy McGrady checked out for the season, which would bode well for them if they were to secure a top-three seed in the West. That would give them home-court advantage in the first round and allow them to avoid the Lakers until the conference finals. Two big issues loom for Houston. First, it plays a rough final five games in which it probably needs to win at least three to climb into a top-three slot. Second, even if the Rockets succeed, a dreaded nemesis may await them in the first round: Utah. The Jazz are likely to be seeded sixth or seventh. They present a uniquely awful matchup for the Rockets and have beaten them in the first round in each of the past two years, even with Houston holding home-court advantage. Link
Houston can beat anyone - including the Lakers. Don't believe me?...see '86 when Ralph beat the Lakers with a last second miracle shot. This team is in the same spot - we're not the favorite (never have been - even in '94 or '95) but the team wins, not the individual, nor the best player. LA had Magic, Kareem & Worthy (not to mention Scott & co.) Yeah, it's a long shot, but nothing that this team's history is unfamiliar with - let's hope we can do it again! Go Rox!
I think the Rockets monitor their spot in the standings the most, out of teams 2-8. They should, under no circumstances, face the Jazz again. I mean, if someone up there really wanted us to face the Jazz, we would see them in the 2nd, or WCF's, right? I want to face Portland or NOLA. All the other teams can go duel it out.
I really want to see Houston win the division now. We matchup well against Denver. Artest would shut down Melo. It would really be a boost of confidence to go into next season having made it to the WCF.
the thing about playing utah is, houston knows Utah's offense inside and out, but they know our OLD offense. Although Adelman is still coach, this is a new team in a way and have been trying to find themselves all season. It seems like they are coming along now and finding a good flow, which Utah hasn't really faced yet. so that's an advantage right there.
Hasn't Houston known Utah's offense for the past 2 decades or so? I think the problem with Utah will just be a matchup problem and nothing else. I'm not saying we can't beat them, but they're one of the teams I really don't want to face.
I wasn't really refering to defending them, just purely talking about offense. There has to be at least a slight advantage going into a series, knowing exactly what they're going to do, but they have to wait and see for our offense. But i think the utah playoff thing is overblown, sure they have beaten us two years in a row, but we're not the same team at all. Last year i dont even count due to Yao's injury. We win that with him. The year prior to that we weren't very deep. Even without Tmac now, we still have a second guy in ron, we have a deeper bench with Wafer, Lowry, and Landry. Scola has also completely adapted to the NBA. Add how much hate the rocket have for utah, and I dont care if we face them. I believe we'll beat them if we have homecourt.
Maybe Sloan is just catering his whole gameplan around beating us and no one else? After all we did have the better of the matchup issues in the early 90's.
Jerry Sloan's offense is pretty simple. Isn't it basically pick and roll? Stockton-Malone and now D.Will and Boozer. I totally agree, Jazz gives Rockets matchup problems.
The matchup problems go both ways. They can't handle Yao's offense or ron forcing his way in. In the past they have been aggressive, like always, and that gives them the edge in the mismatches. All houstonhas to do is be aggressive, that's it. If they coward down and take hits and get knocked down, they'll never win,but if they hit'em back the Jazz will show their weaknesses. Remember they pretty much foul on every posession, the idea is the refs wont call that many fouls, so they let a lot go, which gives utah an edge. If Houston does the same then there's no advantage for the Jazz. That's all there is too it.
hmmm...a sports journalist sees what i see. "golden opportunity" or as i said "best chance". the Rockets need to get the 2nd or 3rd seed to avoid the Lakers the first two rounds. the third round is where a miracle (Rockets made of course) needs to happen. if they can avoid the Jazz too, even better. his insight on Denver was pretty interesting too. anyone know how the Rockets do against the Billups led Nuggets on the road?
i don't want to face neither denver or utah in the first round. portland and nola makes since for us. we can beat either teams. if we play denver or utah in the second round, i have full confidence we'll take both teams to 6 or 7 games and probably win. then the lakers, that's another story. they're talented and deep. should be interesting.
Unbiased point of view: I see us getting out of the first round for sure if we don't face the Jazz. But I see the Jazz stopping us in the second. WCF: Lakers - Jazz (Lakers win) My homer point of view: I see us getting out of the first round, beating either NOH, PORTLAND, DENVER. Then, I see Yao having a amazing series against the Jazz to give us the win. WCF: Lakers - Houston (Lakers win because of Rockets fatigue) All roads head to Utah, except if the fall against Portland/Denver in the first who could upset them! I would be satisfied if my homer prediction was to come true. We don't have the team we expected to have, so I think the way we are playing is amazing!
Now the Rockets need to do everything possible to get the #3 seed, even if it means playing Utah in the first round. We need to realize that all of a sudden, getting to the conference finals is a real possibility. But if the Rockets want that to happen they cannot face the Lakers in Round 2. I would rather face our nemesis Utah in Round 1, but have a real shot of getting to the finals.
I was just gonna say that...it seems to me that they swarm yao the way the glove and the rest of the team used to swarm the dream....
