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Are the Astros going to the world series?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Air Langhi, Sep 30, 2020.

?

Are we getting to ws?

  1. Yes

    60 vote(s)
    60.6%
  2. NO

    39 vote(s)
    39.4%
  1. Major

    Major Member

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    Who pitches games 4 and 5 in that scenario?
     
  2. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    They wouldn't be played. And if they are, Garcia, and maybe someone on short rest after a short stint.
     
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  3. Nook

    Nook Member

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    I don't see the Astros going to the WS, they lack some key pieces. Having said that, I think saying the Twins imploded isn't fair to the Twins or Astros. It was a three game series which favored the Astros because it did not expose the underbelly of their bullpen. The Twins essentially ran into an Astros pitching buzz saw.

    Greinke had bad luck during the regular season but had a FIP of somewhere between 2.50 and 2.80 (depending on the method) and he only had to go 4 innings and knew going into the game he could go all out for 4-5 innings at most. Framber Valdez was quietly one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he had a FIP of 2.70 - 2.85. Christian Javier has been really really nasty when he doesn't have to pitch deep into games. Jose Urquidy has been effective since the Astros called him up.

    Also, the Astros were clearly just going through the motions to end the season. The last month the interest level was bad, the Astros went 8-17 to end the year.

    The Astros can even have a bullpen game in game 4 if they need to....... The Astros will likely have to be unconventional if they are going to win.
     
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  4. bloodwings19

    bloodwings19 Member

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    They have a astronomical chance going to the World Series than the Texans going to the Super Bowl. The only team that I'm worry about are the Yankees, they have the fire against us. And the Dodgers, they have the same anger, but if Kershaw pitches the last game against us- bank the Stros.
     
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  5. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Contributing Member

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    This wasn't just a matter of running into an Astros pitching buzz saw. I've seen the Twins a lot and that didn't look like the Twins have much of the last two years. While them not jacking it out of park certainly had something to do with Stro's pitching the mistakes the Twins made fielding and baserunning had nothing to do with Astros' pitching. For that matter while Stros pitching was great the Twins were discombobulated by the umping more than the Stros were.
     
  6. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    3 man rotation
     
  7. Major

    Major Member

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    So all the pitchers go on 2 days' rest?
     
  8. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Games 1-3........ Greinke, Valdez, McCullers, Urquidy, Javier with Pressly if needed..... this is used only if the game is close, if it isn't then the pen comes in and someone is pushed into starting game 4.

    Game 4 can be a bullpen game.

    Game 5 everyone from game 1 and the pen is available.
     
  9. Major

    Major Member

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    I don't know all the math involved here, but on the surface, it seems to me that if you think your starters are your best overall pitchers, you want to maximize their innings and minimize your bullpen pitcher innings. This doesn't strike me as the way to do it, because you're basically ensuring several of your starters go no more than 4 innings.

    This strategy seems to increase your chances of a sweep, but dramatically decrease your likelihood of winning if you don't sweep.

    Given that our 5 SPs are largely interchangable, I'd rank the SPs as SP1-5 based on *the number of great innings you think you can get from them* (rather than how good you think they are as a whole), and then I'd do the following:

    Game #1: SP 4 and SP 5
    Game #2: SP 1
    Game #3: SP 2
    Game #4: SP 3
    Game #5: SP 4 and SP 5

    SP 4 and 5 are the ones you think give you the fewest great innings, so use them in game 1 for shorter stints, and then they are best positioned for going on 3-days-rest in a game 5, if needed. Max out your innings from SPs 1-3 instead of pulling them early just to tandem. Tandeming doesn't help you in Game 3 anyway, and gives you a nightmare situation in game 4 where just one bullpen guy sucking might blow up your game.
     
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  10. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    This strategy forces you to get to Game 5 to get to a second game with double starters, and on that day they are both on short rest.

    I see this as getting 9 innings, 6, 6, 6 of rested starter innings. 27 innings
    GM 1 SP1/SP2 (9)
    GM2 SP3 (6)
    GM3 SP4/SP5 (9)
    GM4 Luis Garcia
    GM 5 SP1/SP2/Pressly/James.

    24 innings. Lose three innings this way if the Astros are winning. This path gives the Astros the ability to punt (save 2nd tandem starter) GM 1 and GM3 in case 1st starter is horrible in either game which would cause the Astros to play more like your strategy if they are losing. This strategy gives bullpen (i.e., Pressly) rest days before each outing if Astros are doing well. I'd trade three innings of a starter over the series to get a win.
     
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  11. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Is Josh James back? Rested James was performing better in the 7th/8th inning role, and was a key bridge guy the last two post-seasons.
     
  12. tochiee22

    tochiee22 Contributing Member

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    If we all pray hard enough.. we’ll get in.

    Boy would I like to get back to the WS

    just to shut the haters up
     
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  13. Nook

    Nook Member

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    I agree, although you also have to weigh the effectiveness of each starter going 4-5 innings compared to possibly going 6-7. For guys like Javier and Urquidy, telling them they aren’t going past 5 makes a difference in their stuff... they can air it out a little bit more and are likely more effective.

    My main reason for tandem starts is to limit the amount of games the bullpen can potentially lose in a series. With a bullpen start they will get 9 innings in (the pen) but if they stink it is only one game, not much difference between losing 6-3 and 10-3.
     
  14. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Was hip still bothering him?

    Is Taylor healthy and does he have trust of Baker?

    Paredes stuff looks fine, but location was giving him some trouble.
     
  15. TWS1986

    TWS1986 SPX '05
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    25 doubters so far.
     
  16. bobrek

    bobrek Person, woman, man, camera, TV
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    You were a doubter. Are you still? :)
     
  17. SemisolidSnake

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    I haven't been paying attention, so I have no idea if it's feasible. They either need to win it or not make it it all. If they were to get there and win, it "doesn't count" of course. If they get there and lose, it'll be a be "an inspiring victory in troubled times over baseball's greatest villains." They screwed their chance to negate most of this by blowing last year's WS.

    They do need to curbstomp the A's, though. If they have any self-respect, they'll envision Fiers' face on every pitch they take a hack at.
     
  18. Tomstro

    Tomstro Member

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    We are going to the world series despite carlos correa’s incredibly stupid comments.
     
  19. raj87

    raj87 Member

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    1. McCullers
    2. Valdez
    ?
    ?
     
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  20. sealclubber1016

    Supporting Member

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    The team will certainly have to be more flexible. In the 3 games series we could plan it out exactly, not so much in a 5 game.

    I agree that we have to get more than just 5 appearances out of our starters. Starters should tandem up in game 1 so that they can be ready again for a possible game 5. Games 2 and 3 will have to be played by ear, but going to another starter in a close game shouldn't be ruled out. Ideally nobody other than the starters and Pressly should pitch many meaningful innings.
     

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