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A Prediction: Both Harden & Westbrook Will Be Gone

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Furious Jam, Sep 16, 2020.

  1. Furious Jam

    Furious Jam Contributing Member

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    We know the COVID is hurting Tilman more than the average NBA owner with his interests primarily being in hotels, restaurants, and casinos.

    We know that next season will involve bubbling of some kind which will drive team revenues down again.

    And we know that the trade value of Harden will never be higher than it is right now - that he's a declining asset.

    Based on the foregoing, it would make perfect sense for Tilman to tank next year to save money during another irregular season. I think he trades Harden for a boatload of picks and uses one or more of the picks as a sweetener to move Russ as well. Tucker will be gone too but you keep Gordon in short-term to see if he can have a better season and increase his trade value.

    BTW, I don't like my prediction but it makes sense nevertheless. Why spend so much money on a team that won't make the finals and that fans won't be able to see in person anyway? Now is the perfect time to tank when no one is in the building to watch it.

    Watch to see who we hire as a coach. If it's JVG or another big name, then obviously I am wrong. But if it's some young assistant, then I fully expect that the decks will be cleared.
     
  2. psaman17

    psaman17 Member

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    Sounds reasonable. Could happen but theres a higher chance we just stay put.
     
  3. riko

    riko Member

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    No one is touching Russ deal period. Harden big the right deal comes o would consider but it’ll have to be a godfather like deal
     
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  4. Haymitch

    Haymitch Contributing Member

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    There is no possible Harden trade that gives us picks that are worth a damn. Whatever team he goes to will at least be in the top 10 for the duration of his deal, so we're looking at picks 20-30. Those picks won't get you anyone to build around.
     
  5. SuperMarioBro

    SuperMarioBro Member

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    I could see us trading Harden, but not before making some final attempts to shore up the lineup around him... If we can't do that (likely meaning we can't dump Westbrick and/or Gordon's contracts and somehow make improvements there), then we probably need to trade Harden. I love The Beard, but it would be best for the team to start anew rather than keep trying trying to make Westbroke's square pegs fit in here, and if we can't trade WOATbrook. Harden deserves a legit shot at a title while he's still in/near his prime, and the Rockets need to rebuild. By the time Worstbrook's contract ends, Harden's window will be closing (though I expect he'll still be very, very good).
     
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  6. gogispade

    gogispade Member

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    Jimmy aint going nowhere. He gonna retire as a Rocket, with or w/o a ring.
     
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  7. banzai

    banzai Contributing Member

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    If we’re looking at this on a business standpoint, why would you sell low? Also, if your theorem is true, why would other teams put themselves in that same predicament? Who said we would be in bubble again? Westbrook is hurt - we traded an injured CP3. Harden is still a scoring machine and is evolving into a 2-way player. Unless you have insight into Tillman’s actual financials, I couldn’t see myself making that call. I think it’s gonna start with who’s our coach. Then go from there.
     
  8. Reeko

    Reeko Member
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    dude’s been ducking the tax for years

    What money has he been spending?

    u trade Harden, then get ready for irrelevancy and potentially many many years of being garbage

    if Harden is ever traded, it had better be for a young star locked into a contract, or a young player with clear star potential still on that rookie deal...Idgaf about a “boatload of picks”...all those picks won’t be in the lottery if they’re coming from the team Harden is traded to
     
  9. Le$$

    Le$$ Member

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    There wouldn't be a talk about finding a coach. Why would morey job be safe is this was the solution?
     
  10. SuperMarioBro

    SuperMarioBro Member

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    It can be a multi-team trade, and/or you could get picks by proxy from another team. The other possibility is trading him for expiring contracts, along with picks... and you *know* Tilman would love some expiring contracts right about now.

    None of this is to say I want us to lose Harden, or that I think it's best for the team (especially right now), but I could see it happening within a season or two, and might even support it by then, both for his sake and for ours, for reasons I mentioned in my last post.
     
  11. Will

    Will Clutch Crew
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    "The one thing I believe you do in business, and you do in basketball, is you never sit still. You always keep it exciting. Not only is it exciting that we’re a better team, but it’s exciting for the fans. I owe it to them to give them the best opportunity to win a championship every year."
    -- Fertitta, Oct. 2019
    https://rocketswire.usatoday.com/20...tta-tells-final-hours-of-paul-westbrook-deal/

    One big reason to believe in the double trade scenario is that sentence #1 in that quote probably outweighs sentence #4. Fertitta comes across as one of those "If it ain't broke, break it" guys. Casinos and all that. Certainly trading CP and all those picks reflects that mentality.

    I absolutely believe he'll trade Harden at some point. But this year, as opposed to next? I'm skeptical.
     
  12. BigBum

    BigBum Member

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    I do agree with this, scale of 100

    Harden trade value is 95 now
    Harden trade value is 35 in 2022 offseason
     
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  13. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Easter Egg Hunter - Tell me why? نحن عائلة
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    Is this prediction for this year or the next 3 years?

    Huge difference, even next year.

    Let's get this straight.
     
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  14. napalm06

    napalm06 The Tilman Dark Ages Begin
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    Well, he was wrong (and was proven very wrong) about sentence 4, so there's that. :cool:
     
  15. kingkingston

    kingkingston Member

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    Eric Gordon will be 32 in December, so even if he has a good season.....it won't increase his trade value
     
  16. SuperMarioBro

    SuperMarioBro Member

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    I think that's kind of his point.
     
  17. BigBum

    BigBum Member

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    It’s bad idea to trade Harden next few months because no picks to rebuild,

    At first Trade Westbrook for a couple of first round picks.

    Knicks land WB
    Rockets land Randle and 2 Dallas picks
     
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  18. Will

    Will Clutch Crew
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    Yeah, I'm starting to worry that instead of a restaurant mogul we got a casino operator
     
  19. SuperMarioBro

    SuperMarioBro Member

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    ... Why? You're expecting Harden to have a really bad year or something? I think even if he did, it would be made up for by the fact that he only has one year left on his contract after this year. He'd be a low-risk, high-reward acquisition for any team... which now that I think of it is actually a good reason why Tilman won't bother trading him before the 2022-23 season, if at all.
     
  20. psaman17

    psaman17 Member

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    You're gonna have to attach first round picks to get rid of WEstbrook at this point. Dude was exposed in the playoffs.
     

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