I like how this thread is slowly becoming "tips on how to break even or even profit off natural disasters" lmao
Atlantic Daily Briefing Issued: 04:31 AM CDT Monday September 28, 2020 Active Systems None Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 51 is located over the eastern Caribbean from the Virgin Islands southward to northern Venezuela along 64W. It is moving to the west at 12 mph. It will track westward across the Caribbean this week. It is forecast to reach the northwestern Caribbean late this week where the possible system will decelerate and conditions will become more favorable for development. Due to the expected deceleration of the system, it may remain over the northwestern Caribbean through at least Sunday and possibly next Monday. The future track beyond a week from now remains highly uncertain. It is typical for systems that develop in this region this time of year to track to the north or northeast. However, confidence in the exact development time, intensity and track of this possible system remain very low this far out. The chance of development is estimated at near 50 percent over the next seven days. Disturbance 50 is located near 19.0N, 46.5W, or about 1080 miles to the east of the northernmost Leeward Islands. The disturbance is moving to the west-northwest at 20 mph. Thunderstorms have increased with the disturbance over the past 24 hours. However, it remains very poorly organized. This system is forecast to move west-northwest over the next several days over the open Atlantic and will pass well north of the Caribbean. Conditions are not forecast to be favorable for development and tropical development is not expected.
No. 22 more named storms with Omega hitting Tuesday November 3rd. Atlantic Daily Briefing Issued: 04:30 AM CDT Tuesday September 29, 2020 Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 51 is located over the Caribbean to the south of Hispaniola along 69W. It is moving to the west-northwest at 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach the northwestern Caribbean late this week where it will decelerate and conditions will become more favorable for development. The system then could track into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or meander across the northwestern Caribbean Sea from Saturday through early next week, where it could encounter some wind shear. However, the track of this disturbance remains highly uncertain at this time. The most likely track based on steering currents and climatology would be to the northeast toward Florida and/or the Bahamas. The chance of development is estimated at near 50 percent over the next seven days. Disturbance 50 is located about 500 miles to the east-northeast of the northernmost Leeward Islands along 54W. The disturbance is moving to the west-northwest at 20 mph. Thunderstorms remain disorganized with the disturbance. This system is forecast to move west-northwest over the next several days over the open Atlantic and will pass to the northeast of the eastern Caribbean. Conditions are not forecast to be favorable for development and tropical development is not expected. Disturbance 52 has been identified over the tropical Atlantic about 1050 miles to the east of Trinidad along 45.5W. It is moving to the west at 15 mph. It is forecast to move across the Windward Islands on Thursday and track to the west-northwest across the Caribbean Friday through early next week. There could be a brief opportunity for the disturbance to develop as it moves across the Caribbean. Afterward, this disturbance could become absorbed by a more dominant Disturbance 51 by Saturday or Sunday. There is a 10 percent chance of development over the next seven days.
22 MORE?!?!?!? What the F*ck . . . is this the END OF DAYS They Season of a thousand storms!! Rocket River
Just for giggles. Tropical Depression Twenty-five Intermediate Advisory 1a Issued: 10:00 AM CDT Friday October 02, 2020 Current Location: 18.1N, 84.7W Geographic Reference: 230 Miles SE of Cancun, MX Movement: Northwest at 8 mph Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph Organizational Trend: Slowly Becoming Better-Organized Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1007 mb Disturbance 51 has been upgraded to Tropical Depression Twenty-Five by the National Hurricane Center. There are no changes to our forecast.
2020 ain't over yet! Atlantic Daily Briefing Issued: 05:00 AM CDT Sunday October 04, 2020 Gamma Tropical Storm Gamma is located over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico, just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. It is currently moving to the NNW at 5 mph. It is expected to move little today before turning to the west and then the southwest, which will take the system toward the Bay of Campeche. There is no threat to the northern Gulf of Mexico. Winds are 50 mph. Fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next few days before weakening begins. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information. 52 Disturbance 52 is located about 225 miles SE of Kingston, Jamaica. It is moving to the west-northwest near 9 mph. A turn to the northwest should occur tomorrow, taking the system toward the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and then toward western Cuba on Wednesday. Thereafter, it is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico. While we are forecasting the system to be a tropical storm when it impacts Cuba, Increasing wind shear is expected in the Gulf. Our forecast is for dissipation to occur before reaching the northern Gulf Coast. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 53 is along 44.5W, or a little more than 1000 miles east of the Caribbean. It is moving to the west near 10 mph. This motion will bring the disturbance through the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by the middle of the week. The disturbance is disorganized this morning. Environmental conditions are marginal at best for further organization. There is a 10 percent chance of tropical development within the next 7 days. Disturbance 54 is located over the open Atlantic well ESE of Bermuda along 49.5W. It is moving to the west-northwest near 10 mph. This general motion should continue for the next couple of days. The disturbance has become a little better organized over the past 24 hours. There is now a 20 percent chance of tropical development. Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory 9 Valid: 09:00 AM CDT Sunday October 04, 2020 Current Location: 22.2N, 88.2W Geographic Reference: 115 miles ENE of Progreso, Mexico Movement: North-northwest at 3 mph Max Winds: 50 mph gusting to 65 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 90 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 90 miles Organizational Trend: Steady Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 995 mb Key Points 1. The forecast track was adjusted slightly to the north in this update. 2. There remains a flood risk for the Yucatan and for southern mainland Mexico. 3. There is still no threat to the northern Gulf of Mexico. Our Forecast Gamma continues to move to the north-northwest over the southern Gulf of Mexico this morning. However, the system has decelerated. Gamma is forecast to move very slowly over the next 24 hours. Thereafter, we expect a slow westward and then southwestward motion to begin, taking Gamma into the Bay of Campeche. Once Gamma moves into the Bay of Campeche, a slow and erratic motion is expected due to possible interaction with Disturbance 52 to the east, which is also likely to develop into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm over the next few days as it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico. The forecast track was adjusted slightly northward in this update and keeps the center of Gamma over the Bay of Campeche. The slow motion is expected to result in prolonged heavy rainfall for parts of the Yucatan as well as southern mainland Mexico despite the northward adjustment of the track. Fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next several days. There are already signs that wind shear is affecting the system as it appears that the mid-level circulation of Gamma is displaced to the northeast of the surface circulation due to the strong southwesterly winds in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. This could prohibit intensification, though there still remains a chance for slight intensification in the short term. In addition, cool, dry air will begin to affect the system more and will cause some slow weakening of the system this week. Toward the end of the week, a more definitive weakening trend is expected as conditions become less favorable for development. Based on the latest track, there remains no threat to the northern Gulf of Mexico. Expected Impacts Onshore Yucatan: Additional street flooding is likely. Southern Mexico: Flash flooding and mudslides could cause damage, as well as major travel delays. Isolated power outages will be possible over coastal areas of the southern Bay of Campeche. Expected Impacts Offshore Bay of Cam peche: We expect the outer squalls directly associated from the system to move into the eastern Bay of Campeche tomorrow. Tropical storm conditions will occur in the vicinity of the center. Seas could easily exceed 15 feet. Disturbance 52 Advisory 2 Valid: 09:00 AM CDT Sunday October 04, 2020 Current Location: 16.1N, 75.8W Geographic Reference: 140 miles SE of Kingston, Jamaica Movement: West-northwest at 9 mph Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles Organizational Trend: Increasing slowly Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1007 mb Chance of Development: 80 percent Key Points 1. Disturbance 52 is likely to develop into a tropical storm over the northwestern Caribbean. 2. Environmental conditions are expected to be hostile for the system over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico. 3. The forecast is for the system to become a remnant low prior to reaching the northern Gulf Coast. 4. While the track forecast has average confidence, the intensity forecast has low confidence. Our Forecast Disturbance 52 is located to the southeast of Jamaica. Environmental conditions over the next 2 to 3 days are likely to be favorable for further development. It is likely that the disturbance will become a tropical depression by Monday night, then a tropical storm by Tuesday morning over the northwest Caribbean. Thereafter, environmental conditions should become fairly hostile for the system to survive as it moves north-northwestward to northward into the Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear from the outflow of Gamma as well as an upper trough over the Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to begin weakening when it moves over the central Gulf of Mexico. It is then forecast to become a remnant low prior to reaching the northern Gulf Coast. Confidence in the intensity forecast is low as there is a major difference between the statistical and dynamical models. Our forecast favors the dynamical models and keeps the system weak. The statistical models indicate a much stronger system. The current west-northwest motion should continue over the next day or so, before a turn more to the northwest happens. This trac k will take the system toward the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and then toward western Cuba on Wednesday. The likely tropical storm should reach the central Gulf on Thursday. If the system were to survive to reach the northern Gulf Coast, it would probably do so during the day Friday. Expected Impacts On Land Cayman Islands and Western Cuba: Street flooding is likely due to heavy rain. Isolated power outages may also occur. Expected Impacts Offshore Central Gulf of Mexico: The first squalls may reach the deepwater lease areas south of Louisiana and Mississippi by late Wednesday. It is possible that Tuesday could be the final full day of good flying conditions.
What happens when they run out of names for these natural disasters? I'm ready for Tropical Storm Pizza or Hurricane Sweatpants to rear their ugly heads.
Looks like there is an increasing potential that Delta pushes a bit further west than initially anticipated. Latest Euro ensembles show it possibility getting closer to our area. Time to keep an eye on this one.
Atlantic Daily Briefing Issued: 03:54 AM CDT Tuesday October 06, 2020 Delta Hurricane Delta is located about 465 miles east-southeast of Cancun and is moving to the west-northwest at 10 mph. Reconnaissance aircraft indicates maximum sustained winds have increased to 90 mph and this strengthening trend will likely continue today. The latest track takes Delta across the far northeast Yucatan as a powerful category 4 hurricane early Wednesday followed by a track into the central Gulf on Thursday. Landfall is forecast over the south-central Louisiana coast Friday night as a category 2 hurricane. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 53 is located along about 50W or about 770 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Movement is to the west near 5-10 mph. On this track and speed the disturbance should move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday or Friday with some increasing showers and thunderstorms. There are no signs of organization and tropical development is not expected. Hurricane Delta Advisory 9 Valid: 03:00 AM CDT Tuesday October 06, 2020 Current Location: 17.2N, 80.9W Geographic Reference: 465 miles ESE of Cancun Movement: West-northwest at 12 mph Max Winds: 85 mph gusting to 105 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 9 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 6 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 21 out of a possible 50 points (5 size, 16 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 75 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 115 miles Organizational Trend: Increasing Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 973 mb Key Points 1. Delta continues to intensify. 2. We are now forecasting Delta to make landfall around Cancun early Wednesday as a category 4 hurricane. 3. Landfall is now forecast to occur over the coast of Louisiana with 105 mph winds. Our Forecast Delta continues to intensify. Winds have increased to at least 85 mph. Delta is intensifying faster than we were previously forecasting. Therefore, we have raised the short term predicted intensity. Delta is now forecast to strike near Cancun as a category 4 hurricane with winds of 140 mph tomorrow morning. Some weakening is expected as the hurricane interacts with the Yucatan. While this is not as strong as were Hurricanes Wilma and Gilbert, Delta is expected to be an exceptionally dangerous hurricane at landfall. After striking the Yucatan, Delta is forecast to move to the west-northwest tomorrow and early Thursday. We still expect a turn to the north to occur late on Thursday. As Delta approaches the northern Gulf Coast, it is expected to turn to the north-northeast. We have made a slight west shift to the forecast track. Landfall is forecast to occur Friday evening over the Vermilion Bay. After landfall, an acceleration to the northeast is expected. The European model is well west of our track. However, we have disregarded that due to its westward bias this year, as well as a very unrealistic depiction of Delta during the first couple of days. That said, we cannot rule out future westward shifts to the forecast track. Environmental conditions appear as if they will be fairly favorable for Delta to at least maintain its intensity until it moves into the northern Gulf. A secondary peak intensity of 125 mph is expected over the Gulf. While weakening is expected before landfall, most reliable model guidance indicates that Delta will remain a strong hurricane until landfall. Our new forecast is for the winds to be 105 mph at landfall. Expected Impacts On Land Cancun and Cozumel, MX: Widespread severe damage and long lasting power outages are expected. Northern Gulf Coast: There is an increasing risk of widespread, long lasting power outages as well as significant wind damage. Damage from tidal surge is also possible. Inland flooding could also occur due to heavy rainfall. Expected Impacts Offshore Central Gulf of Mexico: The first squalls may reach the deepwater lease areas south of Louisiana and Mississippi by late tomorrow Thursday.
SWLA/ Lake Charles really, really doesn't need another major hurricane. Laura absolutely wrecked shop... downed trees, debris etc is still everywhere and many, many roofs are still damaged. My 90 year old grandparents were without power for 20 days despite being 75 miles from the gulf.
