1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

2020 Hurricane Season

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by KingCheetah, May 18, 2020.

  1. Supermac34

    Supermac34 President, Von Wafer Fan Club

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2000
    Messages:
    6,248
    Likes Received:
    999
    https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

    Existing records of past Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane numbers (1878 to present) in fact do show a pronounced upward trend, which is also correlated with rising SSTs (e.g., see blue curve in Fig. 4 or Vecchi and Knutson 2008). However, the density of reporting ship traffic over the Atlantic was relatively sparse during the early decades of this record, such that if storms from the modern era (post 1965) had hypothetically occurred during those earlier decades, a substantial number of storms would likely not have been directly observed by the ship-based “observing network of opportunity.” We find that, after adjusting for such an estimated number of missing storms, there remains just a small nominally positive upward trend in tropical storm occurrence from 1878-2006. Statistical tests indicate that this trend is
    not significantly distinguishable from zero
    (Figure 2). In addition, Landsea et al. (2010) note that the rising trend in Atlantic tropical storm counts is almost entirely due to increases in short-duration (<2 day) storms alone. Such short-lived storms were particularly likely to have been overlooked in the earlier parts of the record, as they would have had less opportunity for chance encounters with ship traffic.
     
  2. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2002
    Messages:
    52,657
    Likes Received:
    36,922
    You don't really *have* to, do you?

    What was Allison?
     
  3. Xerobull

    Xerobull Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2003
    Messages:
    18,117
    Likes Received:
    7,334
    Atlantic Daily Briefing
    Issued: 04:36 AM CDT Sunday September 20, 2020

    [​IMG]

    Teddy

    Hurricane Teddy is about 340 miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Winds are estimated to be 110 mph. A general northward track is expected in the coming days as it gradually transitions into a large, strong, non-tropical low. Gales are likely in Bermuda tomorrow and over much of Atlantic Canada on Tuesday and Wednesday.

    Beta
    Tropical Storm Beta is about 205 miles southeast of Galveston, Texas. Winds are near 60 mph. The system has not moved much overnight. However, a west to west-northwest track is expected to begin soon. We think it will move into the middle Texas Coast by Monday as a strong tropical storm. Our primary concern will be heavy rainfall for much of coastal Texas and coastal Louisiana.

    Wilfred
    Tropical Storm Wilfred is about 1285 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Winds are estimated to be near 40 mph. The system is likely to remain weak as it tracks west to west-northwest. We think it will weaken to a remnant low in 2 days.

    Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
    The remnants of Paulette are located several hundred miles south of the Azores. The disturbance continues to have a persistent, cohesive low-level circulation. However, it continues to be lacking in shower and thunderstorm activity. The system is expected to continue southward over warmer waters over the next day or two before turning east to east-northeast. Conditions are expected to become moderately favorable for tropical or sub-tropical development. The chance of development is 60 percent.

    Disturbance 48 has been repositioned farther north. It is now north of the Cabo Verde Islands. Model guidance support for development is very weak. However, there is some atmospheric rotation and thunderstorm activity associated with the system. The chance of development is 10 percent.

    We have recognized Disturbance 49. It is a small low-pressure area near Melbourne, FL that formed along a frontal boundary. It is producing a small region of gales offshore of Florida. The system is expected to drift southward into Florida today and weaken. Development is not expected.

    Tropical Storm Beta Advisory 13
    Valid: 09:00 AM CDT Sunday September 20, 2020


    [​IMG]


    Current Location: 27.2N, 93.0W
    Geographic Reference: 195 miles SE of Galveston, TX
    Movement: West-northwest at 8 mph
    Max Winds: 60 mph gusting to 75 mph
    Current Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
    Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
    Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 140 miles
    Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 140 miles
    Organizational Trend: Steady
    Forecast Confidence: Average
    Estimated Central Pressure: 997 mb

    Key Points
    1. Landfall is expected tomorrow over the Texas Coast.
    2. Beta is expected to weaken a little before landfall.
    3. Heavy rainfall is the greatest threat from Beta.

    Our Forecast
    Beta remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are unfavorable for intensification with moderate wind shear and very cool, dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico. Beta is not expected to intensify before making landfall. In fact, it probably will weaken somewhat. Winds are likely to be in the 45 mph to 50 mph range at landfall. After landfall, Beta should weaken to a tropical depression.

    Beta is expected to move to the west-northwest during the next 24 to 36 hours. This motion will bring the center inland around Matagorda Bay tomorrow afternoon. After landfall, Beta is likely to slow again before turning more to the east-northeast. The slow motion is expected to result in significant rainfall totals over coastal Texas and southern Louisiana. The dry air present over Texas means that widespread rainfall totals will not be as high as in some previous storms. However, areas that see training rainbands could receive more than 15 inches of rainfall from Beta. Thus, heavy rainfall remains the greatest threat from this tropical storm.

    Expected Impacts Offshore
    Northwest Gulf:
    Squalls, enhanced seas, and tropical storm conditions, at least in squalls, are expected over much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico today early Tuesday. The best chance of receiving more persistent gales over the deep water leases will be in areas north of the center

    Expected Impacts Onshore
    Coastal Texas: Areas of flooding are likely. Where the heaviest rains occur, expect widespread street flooding with some inundation of structures near waterways. Gusty winds could result in power outages. Minor coastal flooding is also likely.
     
  4. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2007
    Messages:
    35,506
    Likes Received:
    14,802
    Seeing Beta is heading into Galveston.. Stay safe out there..
     
  5. RKREBORN

    RKREBORN Member

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    5,119
    Likes Received:
    3,428
    [​IMG]
     
  6. Xerobull

    Xerobull Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2003
    Messages:
    18,117
    Likes Received:
    7,334
    Its not, as of now and the cone is shrinking. See my post.

    Irony- it might hit Katy
     
    B-Bob likes this.
  7. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2007
    Messages:
    35,506
    Likes Received:
    14,802
    That's good news for Galveston but still going to cause problems for the Houston Area.
     
  8. STR8Thugg

    STR8Thugg Member

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2010
    Messages:
    2,445
    Likes Received:
    1,242
    Galveston should definitely get its fair share.
     
    davidio840 likes this.
  9. Haymitch

    Haymitch Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2005
    Messages:
    23,250
    Likes Received:
    11,226
    Looks like Cypress gonna get it
     
  10. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 1999
    Messages:
    41,702
    Likes Received:
    6,236
    Galveston actually drains better/faster than Houston... hence why Harvey was worse for Houston.
     
    STR8Thugg likes this.
  11. marks0223

    marks0223 Astros STILL 2017 Champions
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2007
    Messages:
    6,140
    Likes Received:
    5,363
    Beta went and got itself an eye.
     
    davidio840 likes this.
  12. Roscoe Arbuckle

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2014
    Messages:
    2,837
    Likes Received:
    1,501
    You Beta You Beta You Bet!

     
    No Worries likes this.
  13. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2002
    Messages:
    52,657
    Likes Received:
    36,922
    Houston gonna get beta cucked
     
    marks0223 likes this.
  14. Houstunna

    Houstunna The Most Unbiased Fan
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2013
    Messages:
    24,555
    Likes Received:
    14,367
    The current rain in Houston is Beta. Plans are screwed
     
  15. davidio840

    davidio840 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 14, 2010
    Messages:
    7,008
    Likes Received:
    2,158
    Depending on where Beta actually makes landfall will determine the Galveston impacts. Harvey didn’t produce a lot of surge from the GoM into Galveston due to the direction it came from and the landfall location. I think it was 1-4 feet max is memory serves me right.

    Beta is coming in from the East (think Ike) so the surge from the GoM will be be higher. That prevents runoff from both Galveston and Houston.

    By the way, Houston is just a flood nightmare regardless. The Barker and Addicks reservoirs (misuse, whatever you want to call it there are still lawsuits going on) played a big role in the long duration flooding in west and downtown Houston area mainly due to Buffalo Bayou.
     
  16. Rodman23

    Rodman23 .GIF

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2012
    Messages:
    5,394
    Likes Received:
    3,085
    Awesome pics, Beta. Great size. Look thick. Solid. Tight. Keep us all posted on your continued progress with any new progress pics or vid clips. Show us what you got man. Wanna see how freakn' huge, solid, thick and tight you can get. Thanks for the motivation
     
    KingCheetah likes this.
  17. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 1999
    Messages:
    41,702
    Likes Received:
    6,236
    Galveston can withstand most medium surges.
     
  18. Houstunna

    Houstunna The Most Unbiased Fan
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2013
    Messages:
    24,555
    Likes Received:
    14,367
    Pretty sure 5mph is slow-moving for a tropical storm.

    Slow-moving Rain + Houston = Problems
     
    mikol13 likes this.
  19. Surfguy

    Surfguy Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 1999
    Messages:
    17,978
    Likes Received:
    4,787
    D/FW going to miss out on another one? I'M SICK OF THIS SH*T! HURRICANES ARE COCK BLOCKING US ALL BECAUSE WE'RE CUNTS UP HERE! ;)
     
    Andre0087 likes this.
  20. marks0223

    marks0223 Astros STILL 2017 Champions
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2007
    Messages:
    6,140
    Likes Received:
    5,363

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now