Top 30 free agents, 2014 offseason

With the talk of what to do about Chandler Parsons, and how much money he is liable to get if he is allowed to become a restricted free agent next summer, I decided to put together a list of the top 30 available free agents in the 2014 offseason.

The key term here is "available." The majority of such lists includes everybody. I find this annoying. Some players simply are not going anywhere; they'll re-sign with their current teams because the logic of the collective bargaining agreement dictates that they'll do so. Thus, when fans look at such lists, they are wowed by the star power, and fail to distinguish between guys who are theoretically available vs. guys who are ACTUALLY available.

I consider the following guys to be, for all intents and purposes, unavailable:

Tim Duncan
Dirk Nowitzki
Carmelo Anthony
Andrew Bogut
Paul George
DeMarcus Cousins
Greg Monroe
Derrick Favors
Gordon Hayward
Eric Bledsoe

Carmelo pretty much has to live in either NYC or LA to placate his annoying wife. Neither the Clippers or Nets will have cap space. The Lakers will have cap space but that organization is a disaster and nobody wants Kobe as a teammate.

Obviously Duncan and Nowitzki will play their entire careers with their current teams.

If Bogut is relatively injury-free then the Warriors will bring him back, and he'll want to re-sign.

The other guys' teams will match any offer sheet, even up to the max. This is not to say that, for example, Cousins doesn't get traded before the February trade deadline, but it won't matter, because whoever trades for him will match any offer sheet.

Then there is the special case of Andrew Bynum and the team option on his contract. I am not going to include him on my list because either a) he has a strong season, in which case the Cavs exercise their option or b) he misses a ton of games due to injuries, in which case he is damaged goods and will not be a desirable player. Bynum's career may be closer to the end than you think.

Next, we have the special cases of Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. 100% chance that Lebron and Bosh opt out and hit free agency, although they are highly likely to re-sign, barring some unforeseen circumstances. If Wade is healthy and productive, he'll also opt out and re-sign. These guys are living the dream, why screw that up? I am, however, assuming that all goes well in Miami this season; if bad/unforeseen stuff happens, look out.

Since all of these guys are highly likely to stay put, we can now rank the top 30 free agents, the REAL list, containing only guys who are truly available:

1 Pau Gasol
2 Chandler Parsons (RFA, if he is allowed to become RFA)
3 Luol Deng
4 Marcin Gortat
5 Paul Pierce
6 Thabo Sefolosha
7 Andrei Kirilenko
8 Shawn Marion
9 Kyle Lowry
10 Ed Davis (RFA)
11 Mario Chalmers
12 Ray Allen
13 Shane Battier
14 Al-Farouq Aminu
15 Evan Turner (RFA)
16 Emeka Okafor
17 Danny Granger
18 Jordan Hill
19 Avery Bradley
20 Kris Humphries
21 Robin Lopez
22 Patrick Patterson (RFA)
23 Jameer Nelson
24 Chris Anderson
25 Brandon Rush
26 Ron Artest
27 Amir Johnson
28 Spencer Hawes
29 Lavoy Allen
30 Matt Bonner

We can quibble about these rankings ("Patrick Patterson should be higher than Kris Humphries!", etc.) but my point here is that Parsons is #2 on this list, and if Gasol is looking old in 2013-14, then Parsons is #1! In other words, teams with max cap space--and there will be quite a few--may well consider offering Parsons a deal at or near the max.

Which returns us to an ongoing discussion: what to do with Chandler Parsons? Since he is such an obvious candidate to be grossly overpaid due to market conditions, I still say that the wise move is to auction him off on draft day 2014 (or in the days leading up to the draft, more likely) for the highest pick you can get in what appears to be a stacked draft.

 

Maybe some other time. My point in creating this list was to demonstrate that Parsons is going to cost a boatload of money to re-sign, and of the wisdom in selling high, for the best draft pick (or package of picks) that you can possibly get. You draft his (presumably higher upside, and definitely much cheaper) replacement, or maybe you draft a player who plays a different position and use your cap space (assuming Houston is able to create cap space by trading Jeremy Lin and/or Omer Asik) for a cheaper replacement such as Luol Deng, Andrei Kirilenko, or Shawn Marion. Or maybe you package the pick received for Parsons with other picks and assets (e.g., Donatas Motiejunas, Terrence Jones) for a disgruntled star (e.g., Kevin Love). Any of these scenarios seems better to me than matching a monster four year, $50+ mil offer sheet for a good but not great player like Parsons.

 

Not simple at all. The market constantly leads to irrational results, some players are obtained for what turn out to be bargain deals, others wind up getting grossly overpaid. Just because a guy winds up with a max or near max contract does not mean that he is really going to earn that money. What is the more sensible, bang-for-your-buck contract: Chandler Parsons at four years, $50+ mil or Luol Deng for three years, $25 mil? Or Kirilenko at three years, $20 mil? And be sure to factor in that Houston could (if it plays its cards right) Deng or Kirilenko for half Parsons' price AND a really good young (and cheap) player via a mid-lottery pick in the stacked 2014 draft, instead of a very expensive Chandler Parsons.

 

Indiana traded the pick used to draft Kawhi Leonard for George Hill just one year before Hill hit free agency. Toronto traded the #12 pick in the draft for Kyle Lowry. Minnesota traded a pick in the mid-teens for Chase Budinger. None of these players were deemed as desirable as Parsons will be next spring. I completely disagree. And Parsons is going to cost more than $40 mil. AND a good player drafted at around #10 overall provides much more value (bang for your buck) than Parsons at $50+ mil.

Morey has created a juggernaut by focusing on value, by taking a completely unsentimental approach to player valuation. So why abandon this approach?

 

There are many, many examples of a player hitting free agency under the right conditions and hitting the jackpot, not just in the NBA but in all pro sports. If we focus just on the NBA, Parsons fits the profile of such players:

1 Relatively young, thus, he is presumed to have "upside"
2 Expected to remain highly productive for the length of his contract
3 A key player on a championship contender

I pointed out recently that Horace Grant was, for a period of time, the highest-paid player in the entire NBA. Juwan Howard is another player who fits this profile; he received a massive contract in free agency. There are many, many other examples.

Take another look at my list of players who figure to be ACTUALLY obtainable. Now try to look at these players objectively, rather than as a Rockets fan. Even when you look at the list objectively, it's difficult to conclude that Parsons should be any lower than #2 on this list. If/when there is a fairly large number of teams with cap space, determined to spend that cap space, logic and past experience dictate that Parsons will hit the jackpot. Look at the money that Josh Smith got this past summer. Parsons is going to hit free agency at a younger age and does not come with Smith's baggage; in fact, Parsons is perceived to be the consummate teammate, a leader, even.

 

You're right. Evan Turner will have to make major strides in 2013-14; otherwise, you're right, he'll be unrestricted. One of many players on this Sixers roster who are prime trade candidates between now and the February trade deadline as Daryl Morey Jr. reshapes the roster.