http://www.letsgotribe.com/2012/8/20/3253495/the-drafts-2005-2010-how-bad-was-it I was reading the post above about the Indians' 2005-10 drafts (my other team... life is grand! ) and came across a reference to the Astros (about halfway through the analysis). Everybody knows we drafted pitifully during this period and we've seen some numbers here and there to support that obvious fact, but this guy did his own unique research and dug a little deeper than what most of us have probably seen. Again, the piece is completely geared toward the Indians so there is no detailed analysis pertaining to the Astros beyond that horrifying negative WAR value (the only team in all of baseball in the red during that span to date). That said, I am very interested in acquiring that detail, as well as extending it back to the 1993 season, Drayton's first as owner, in order to get a full picture of how the farm system fared under his watch. I am posting this now because I don't know if and when I'll have time to do the grunt work to put together such analysis so I figured we could at least start a discussion about it in the meantime and that maybe others would join in on the effort, or provide similar already existing numbers for that period. At a minimum, it's just a discussion point. Maybe you see flaws in this guy's analysis, beyond what he acknowledges himself in the post. I've seen a number of his comments in the past and he's pretty sharp and articulate for what it's worth but it seems like he did this on his own so there could be gaps and shortcomings that he overlooked. Anyhow, that's about it. If and when I get time to do the number-crunching, I'll post my findings. If any of you are interested enough to do some research, please share your results. Also, one important point to consider if and when we ever have all this data is that McLane inherited a farm system much like he inherited Biggio and Bagwell entering their primes. What to look for is the trend over his 18 years or so as owner. It'd be even better to also know stuff like investment dollars in scouting, development and advanced technologies relative to the rest of the league over that period but I doubt that information could ever be found. I'm sure it would be really telling if it could be though.
Guys who made it to the bigs that we drafted and signed (though I tried to mention guys that we failed to sign, but had reasonable big league careers) 1993: Billy Wagner, Bryant Nelson (25 games, none all with Boston in 2002) 1994: Ramon Castro, Scott Elarton, Russ Johnson, Oscar Robles, Tony Mounce, John Halama, Julio Lugo 1995: Tony McKnight, Brian Sikorski, Barry Wesson, Derek Wallace, Aaron Miles, Jeriome Robertson, Tim Hamulack 1996: Mark J. Johnson, Brian Dallimore, Wade Miller, Roy Oswalt, Tom Sherean 1997: Lance Berkman, Tim Redding, Jason Alfaro 1998: Brad Lidge, Dave Matranga, John Buck, Morgan Ensberg, Keith Ginter, Colin Porter 1999: Mike Gallo, Jason Lane, Chris Sampson, Gregg Dobbs 2000: Chad Qualls, Cory Doyne, Eric Bruntlett, Todd Self, Mike Burns, (Bourn drafted, but not signed) 2001: Chris Burke, Kirk Sarloos, Phillip Barzilla, Charlton Jimerson, Brooks Conrad, DJ Houlton, Matt Albers, (Lance Cormier not signed) 2002: Mitch Talbot, Mark Mclemore 2003: Jason Hirsh, Josh Anderson, Jimmy Barthmaier, Edwin Maysonet, Mark Saccammano, (Drew Stubbs not signed) 2004: Hunter Pence, Ben Zobrist, Troy Patton, Chad Reineke, Drew Sutton, J.R. Towles 2005: Brian Bogusevic, Tommy Manzella, Brandon Barnes 2006: Chris Johnson, Bud Norris 2007: Only one guy we drafted has made the majors, and he didn't sign (Robbie Weinhardt). Only 6 are even still in the minors. 2008: Jason Castro, Jordan Lyles, J.B. Shuck 2009: Dallas Kuechel, JD Martinez
Using Baseball Reference WAR: 1993 WAR: 26.9 (15.7 with HOU) 1994 WAR: 21.5 (4.9 with HOU) 1995 WAR: -2.7 (0.0 with HOU) 1996 WAR: 62.5 (57.1 with HOU) 1997 WAR: 48.7 (45.1 with HOU) 1998 WAR: 25.3 (19.6 with HOU) 1999 WAR: 0.8 (3.5 with HOU) 2000 WAR: 2.5 (5.8 with HOU) 2001 WAR: -0.4 (-1.8 with HOU) 2002 WAR: -0.3 (0.4 with HOU) 2003 WAR: 0.2 (-0.2 with HOU) 2004 WAR: 43.6 (15.1 with HOU) Great move trading Zobrist for Huff 2005 WAR: 0.8 (0.8 with HOU) 2006 WAR: -0.8 (-0.7 with HOU) CJ's terrible defense is the culprit 2007 WAR: 0.0 2008 WAR: -2.4 Yeah, Lyles has been terrible. 2009 WAR: -0.4
FWIW, our top prospects when McLane got here were: Todd Jones Phil Nevin Brian Hunter Bobby Abreu Alvin Morman Jeff Juden Orlando Miller James Mouton Gary Mota Chris Hatcher Other guys in the system at the time include Carlos Guillen & Richard Hidalgo, who were still 16/17 at the time.
Interesting facts: Tim Pupura was director of player development from 1997-2004. During Hunsicker's tenure, he had 4 quality drafts, his first 3, and then his last. The 5 in between were brutal. Early results from Heck's drafts are terrible.
I remember him having some power/speed potential. http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=mouton001jam His year in '93 in AAA was really good, especially considering he skipped AA. 40 steals, 40 doubles, double digits in homers and triples as a middle infielder is certainly promising, though he was already 24. Part of the problem for him was that Biggio fellow blocking him at 2B. Light hitting corner outfielders just don't make it. I remember being really excited about Orlando Miller after he hit 2 homers in a game early on.
PCL (AAA) MVP in his 3rd year of pro ball out of college. He was an awful, awful IF so they moved him to the OF. Terribly slow bat that couldn't hit big league pitching: see Fernando/JD Martinez, Dominguez, Petagine, Lane, Ginter, , etc....
1999- Mike Rosamond* 2000- Robert Stiehl* 2001- Chris Burke* 2002- Derrick Grigsby* 2003- Jason Hirsh 2004- Hunter Pence 2005- Brian Bogusevic, Eli Iorg* 2006- Max Sapp* 2007- Derek Dietrich 2008- Jason Castro 2009- Jio Mier, Jordan Lyles 2010- Delino, Folty 2011- George Springer 2012- Carlos Correa If we would have had quality drafts from 1999-2002, we could have had some great teams when Roy, Andy, Roger, Biggio, Baggy, and Lidge were around. Instead, 1 made it to the majors and all are out of baseball now. Granted, Chris Burke showed alot of promise, just never was able to produce consistently.
Yuck list but we did have great times during that time frame anyway. There weren't too many spots that didn't have a solid or better player. The odds that a draftee would have gotten SS or #4 starter and really made a difference were slim.
I blame Chris Burke for why Drayton never spent money in the draft again. He was our one over slot guy, and was the biggest bonus he handed out until DDJ (who go about the same). Of course, if Carlos Hernandez and Wade Miller had stayed healthy, we'd have been a lot better as well.
I think Drayton felt burnt by it. If Chris Burke was successful, you'd at least have an easier time convincing him to spend again.
Who, Burke? Not really. Also, he paid for Castro and DD jr. If he really felt burned by Burke he wouldn't have wanted to have any high draft picks.
