What are the odds…?

*****WARNING, I WAS VERY BORED AND CREATED A LONG POST*****

I evaluated the draft from 1995 thru 2011 (17 years) for all star caliber players and where they were selected. What I really wanted to find out was what are the odds that any of our rookies (Motiejunas, Lamb, White, and Jones), the Toronto, Houston and the Dallas picks turning into all star caliber players.

Clearly the top 10 picks are the best. But what is surprising is that after the 1st pick, there has not been much of an advantage regardless if you are picking 2nd or 10th. As you will see in my break down, similar talent has been netted at both spots in the draft and throughout the top 10 picks.

Some of the players I list are a bit subjective such as Kevin Martin and Wilson Chandler or Eric Gordon and Greg Monroe who have never actually made an all-star team but I think fall in the category of all-star caliber. Guys like Taj Gibson, Chandler Parsons, Omer Asik, Courtney Lee, Aaron Afflalo are not on the list because while I think they are high quality players I don’t view any of them as all-star caliber…yet. Of course several players from the last five drafts or so are likely to become all-star caliber players like Steve Nash or Chauncey Billups did after they had been in the league for several years. I omitted any of the 2012 draft picks because they have not done anything to deserve to be on the list yet.

Here is the list which includes 91 players:

Code:

Player		Overall Pick	Year Drafted
LaMarc Aldridge		2	2006
Ray Allen 		5	1996
Carmelo Anthony		3	2003
Gilbert Arenas		31	2001
Ron Artest		16	1999
Andrea Bargnani		1	2006
Mike Bibby		2	1998
Chaunc Billups		3	1997
Andrew Bogut		1	2005
Carlos Boozer		35	2002
Chris Bosh		4	2003
Elton Brand		1	1999
Caron Butler		10	2002
Kobe Bryant		13	1996
Andrew Bynum		10	2005
Marcus Camby		2	1996
Vince Carter		5	1998
Tyson Chandler		2	2001
Wilson Chandler		23	2007
DeMarc Cousins		5	2010
Stephen Curry		7	2009
Baron Davis 		3	1999
Luol Deng		7	2004
Tim Duncan		1	1997
Kevin Durant		2	2007
Monte Ellis		40	2005
Tyreke Evens		4	2009
Steve Francis		2	1999
D Gallinari		6	2008
Kevin Garnett		5	1995
Marc Gasol 		48	2007
Pau Gasol		3	2001
Rudy Gay		8	2006
Manu Ginobli		57	1999
Eric Gordon 		7	2008
Marcin Gortat		57	2005
Danny Grager		17	2005
Blake Griffin		1	2009
Rich Hamilton		7	1999
James Harden		3	2009
Roy Hibbert		17	2008
Al Horford		3	2007
Serge Ibaka		24	2008
Z Ilgauskas		20	1996
Andre Iguodala		9	2004
Kyrie Irving		1	2011
Allen Iverson		1	1996
LeBron James		1	2003
Al Jefferson		15	2004
Rich Jefferson		13	2001
Joe Johnson		10	2001
Chris Kaman		6	2003
A Kirilenko		24	1999
Rashard Lewis		32	1998
Brook Lopez		10	2008
Kevin Love		5	2008
Corey Maggette		13	1999
Shawn Marion		9	1999
Kevin Martin		26	2004
Tracy McGrady		9	1997
Andre Miller 		8	1999
Brad Miller		N/A	1998
Greg Monroe		7	2010
Steve Nash		15	1996
Nene		      7	    2002
Joakim Hoah		9	2007
Dwight Howard		1	2004
Dirk Nowitzki		9	1998
Emeka Okafor		2	2004
Jermaine O'Neal		17	1996
Tony Parker		28	1999
Chris Paul 		4	2005
Paul Pierce		10	1998
Zach Randolph		19	2001
Rajon Rondo 		21	2006
Derrick Rose		1	2008
Rick Rubio		5	2009
Brandon Roy		6	2006
J Stackhouse		3	1995
A Stoudemire		9	2002
Peja Stojakovic		14	1996
Jason Terry		10	1999
Dwyane Wade		5	2003
John Wall		1	2010
Ben Wallace		N/A	1996
Gerald Wallace		25	2001
Rasheed Wallace		4	1995
David West		18	2003
R Westbrook		4	2008
Deron Williams		3	2005
Yao Ming		1	2002

Pick 1 produced 12 All-Star Caliber Players out of 17 selections.

No surprise that the number 1 pick produces such a high success rate. The odds are slightly better than 2 : 3 that whatever team drafting with the number 1 pick will get an all star player. The best player selected here was Tim Duncan but other notable selections include LeBron James and Yao Ming.

Picks 2 thru 10 produced a combined total of 50 All-Star Caliber players out of 153 selections.

For teams selecting in this range the odds are almost exactly 1 : 3. The first obvious thing here that jumps out at you is the drop off from success immediately after pick number 1. Of course pick number 2 has a much higher chance of success than the remaining selections right? The odds are slanted because we are averaging 2 thru 10 together, right? Sure, a little but not as much as you might think.

Pick number 2 had 7 all-star caliber players out of 17 selections giving teams 1 : 2.4 odds of success while pick number 10 had 6 all-star caliber players out of 17 selections giving teams 1 : 2.8 odds of success. OK but all all-stars are not the same talent level, there is your Michael Jordan all star and your garden variety Danny Ainge all-star. Obviously there is a serious talent drop of from pick 2 thru pick 10 right? Uh…no, not really.

The best players selected with the 2nd overall pick in the last 17 years are Kevin Durant and LaMarcus Aldridge while the best player selected at pick 10 are Paul Pierce and Andrew Bynum. Pick 3 produced Pau Gasol, Deron Williams and Chauncy Billups. Pick 4 produced Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul and Chris Bosch. Pick 5 produced Kevin Garnett, DWayne Wade and Ray Allen Pick 6 produced Brandon Roy, pick 7 Richard Hamilton, pick 8 Rudy Gay and pick 9 Dirk Nowitzki and Amare Stoudemire.

It should be obvious that except for a few exceptions (picks 6 thru 8), teams selecting in draft positions 2 thru 10 have enjoyed roughly the same odds of selecting a high level all-star regardless of draft position within the top 10.

Picks 11 thru 15 produced a combined total of 6 All-Star Caliber players out of a 85 selections.

And there is your cut-off! Teams only have about a 1 : 14 odds of successfully landing an all-star caliber player drafting in this area. The drop off after pick number 10 is astronomical and it’s not even a gradual drop off. In 17 years picks number 11 or 12 did not produce an all-star quality player, let’s hope Jeremy Lamb can break that trend!

The best players selected in this area were Kobe Bryant at 13 and Steve Nash at 15.

Picks 16 thru 20 produced a combined total of 7 All-Star Caliber players out of a 85 selections.

This group actually produced all-star caliber players at a slightly higher rate giving teams in this area 1 : 12 odds of success. Not much of a difference except that this is the first group that as of yet has not produced a single serious Hall of Fame candidate. The best players in this category are Ron Artest, Jermaine O’Neal and Zach Randolph.

Picks 21 thru 25 produced a combined total of 5 All-Star Caliber players out of a 85 selections.

The odds for teams successfully drafting all-star caliber players in this area were only 1: 17. Not really too much of a drastic drop off but there was another slight drop in the quality of talent as the best players were Rajon Rondo, Gerald Wallace and Andre Kirilenko.

Picks 26 thru 60 only produced a total of 9 all-star caliber players out of 595 possible selections.

There is certainly no surprise here. The best players selected in this area were Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker. Brad Miller and Ben Wallace should also be mentioned but they were not drafted.

So What Does It All Mean?

Simple, if you want to have a decent chance at All-Star quality talent you realistically need to be drafting in the top 10. The exception to that are the really deep draft classes. The 1996 draft produced 8 all-star caliber players (9 if you include undrafted Ben Wallace). Five of those all-stars were drafted from picks 13 thru 20 and included Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash,. The 1999 draft class produced 12 All-Star Caliber players. Five of those players were drafted outside of the top 10 and included Tony Parker, Ron Artest and Andre Kirilenko. The 2001 draft class produced 7 All-Star Caliber players. Four of those players were drafted from picks 13 thru 31 and included Gerald Wallace and Zach Randolph.

Most recently the 2008 draft class so far has produced 8 All-Star Caliber players. Players drafted outside of the top 10 are Roy Hibbert at 17 and Serge Ibalka at 24. There are other players from that draft class that could prove themselves as All-Star Caliber players such as Goran Dragic, Nicolas Batum, Omer Asik, Mario Chalmers and DeAndre Jordan.
OK so it doesn’t take an Einstein to know your odds of drafting All-Star Talent later in the draft increase in a deep draft.

How This Relates to the Rockets

Let’s start with the Donatas Motiejunas. If we just look at the last 17 years of draft history, unless that draft class is as deep as the 1996, 1999 or 2001 draft classes, the odds are astronomically low that he will ever become an All-Star caliber player. Just based on history it’s not very likely that his ceiling exceeds anything Luis Scola ever achieved. Having said that let’s hope that DMo turns into someone as good as Jermaine O’Neal became at his best.

The Rockets 2012 draft class should be full of hope. According to all of the experts, while this draft class did not have a superstar like LeBron James or Hakeem Olajuwan, it was still very deep with talent. I think the Rockets actually have a decent shot at one of their picks (Lamb, White or Jones) turning into an all-star player.

If the projections are correct about next summer’s draft then it will be top heavy with talent but not very deep. This makes getting a top 10 pick imperative if the Rockets want any shot at all at an all-star quality player from the 2012 draft. This makes the Toronto pick all the more valuable since I just do not see that team finishing outside of the bottom 8. If the Rockets pick is also a top 10 pick that would give them better than a 50 : 50 chance at getting an All-Star Caliber player in next summer’s draft. And if the Dallas pick slides to 2018 and becomes a top 10 then Jordan Hill would have more than served his purpose.

Daryl Morey has proven that you can find good quality players throughout the draft. However, the historical data shows that unless the draft is exceptionally deep, the number 11 pick is no better than the number 25 pick in terms of drafting an all-star player.