Isn't the million dollar question is who's buying SPY calls worth millions and making money off both sides?
the speed at which the the rumor was squashed makes me believe it was purposely leaked to see how the market would react to a pause.
I'm envisioning the following happening in the next week or so from Truth Social: DJT (he didn't post/say this...just what I think he would or could): I just got off the phone with Xi from Ghina. We had a very productive conversation. More soon. TARIFFS WORKING! MAGA-OPOLIS COMING! HANG TOUGH! Markets jump
So much for not negotiating. Headline: Bessent says Pres. Trump, U.S. Trade Rep. Greer to open trade negotiations with Japan.
They will algorithmically identify MAX PAIN and shake the trees, draining every last cent possible - SLOWLY. Boiling frogs. Get out or get cooked.
The end goal is likely to end the dollar as the reserve currency. Here’s the white paper from Stephen Miran one of Trump’s former advisers. I ran it thru ChatGPT to disgest it easier. The implementation is nowhere close to what Miran suggested but this seems to be the rough framework that the admin is using with tariffs. The next thing to look for if this is the framework would be US beginning to intervene in forex markets to weaken the dollar. https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/do...o_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf
That was my biggest concern, we enjoy so many benefits of being the world's reserve currency...cough cough...stability being what other countries expect. I'm not very optimistic that this whole ordeal will work out in our favor in the long term.
They view it as a disadvantage now and view it as something that is hollowing out the US middle class and making the US less competitive. I have no opinion one way or the other. I'm just trying to figure out what exactly is the plan. Bessent was very blunt about wanting a dramatic change to the global finance order on par with something of the magnitude of Bretton Woods. I included this PDF to the chatGPT conversation I have going about tariffs and it at least made things start to make some sense. Trump explains things like an moron but clearly the people in his admin have major plans. China seems prepared for the end of globalization but Europe seems to be completely unprepared for it.
They don't want to end the dollar reserve. Trump wants to have his cake and eat it. It's more like ring-fenced trade zones with vassal and friendly states. If you're willing to hold your nose in the poo flinger forum, I posted an interview about it with progressive Ezra Klein and an editor of FT/provst of Kings College, Gillian Tet, who came up with the idea of the Mar a Lago Accords. https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/...d-in-both-parties.323778/page-3#post-15673992 Tet is pretty deft at staying on the facts, acknowledging Miram's credentials while stressing his caveats as the weaknesses. I guess it's because Ezra goes full on attack mode to make them feel contrasting. This is noted in Miram's paper, where the price increase would be a one time hit because China's pricing and CB advantage means they can weaken currency to offset the tariff tax imposed on their companies. This is the basis of Trump's bigly claim that he can have tariffs with little to no price increases. Their theory is rooted in the existing Trump/Biden tariffs, which is a completely smaller scale and the strong belief that companies will be loathe to pass on price hikes when people are stretched.
That was the contradiction that I saw in the white paper. They mentioned how a rising dollar could offset tariffs but also too they mention open market forex operations to weaken the dollar. I'm guessing it is resolved somehow in that paper or maybe it isn't? I'll have to trudge through it rather than letting GPT read it for me. And I had clutch ban me from d&d awhile back lol. I was wasting too much time there, but I can find the interview. I'll check it out. I'll have to get more into your point about ring fenced trade zones because I'm trying to think through what you mean but I don't think I'm really seeing that outcome. I could definitely see the EU becoming even more of a vassal state to the US though. I see the imperialist moves against Greenland, Panama, Canada and Mexico as a revival of the Monroe Doctrine to counter China. However, we've gone about this in a very unfriendly and counterproductive fashion.
