Piggybacking on my WAR tiers from above. Tier 1 (5.0+) = team needs 2+ Tier 2 (3.5-4.9) = team needs 3+ Tier 3 (2.0-3.4) = team needs 3+ Tier 4 (1.0-1.9) = team needs 1+ Tier 5 (0.1-0.9) = team needs 4+ 2025: Tier 1: Tucker, Alvarez Tier 2: Diaz, Altuve, Pena, Meyers Needs 1b, 3b, LF / Tier 3, Tier 3, Tier 4. options: Dubon, McCormick, Loperfido, Cabbage, Singleton, Hummel, Hensley, Kessinger, Hummel, Leon, Whitcomb, Melton, Dezenzo, Wagner. 2026: Lose Tucker Tier 1: Alvarez Tier 2: Diaz. Pena, Meyers Tier 3: Altuve 2027: Tier 1: Alvarez Tier 2: Diaz, Pena Tier 3: Altuve, Meyers 2028: Lose Pena and Meyers Tier 1: Alvarez Tier 2: Diaz Tier 3: Altuve 2029: Lose Alvarez and Diaz Tier 4: Altuve
By 2028, Forrest Whitley becomes S tier and plays both ways- switch hitting and doing it at ohtani levels. We good for another 10 year run.
The biggest issue I see with my findings, is the lack of Tier 1 prospects. The Astros haven't produced a Tier 1 guy since Alvarez/Tucker in 2019. I had hopes for Diaz, but as a DH and part time catcher last year he produced 3.2 bWAR in 377 PAs. That's 5.5 bWAR playing full time. However, with the extra responsibility of being the starting catcher, he has shrunk to a Tier 3 level guy (0.9 bWAR in 347 PAs). Moving forward, I still see him as a Tier 2 but not a Tier 1. I see plenty of likely Tier 2 guys in the system- Melton, Matthews, Baez, Dezenzo, Loperfido, Leon, Whitcomb, etc. But I do not see any Tier 1s. They still could add another level but are all clearly a step down from the top guys of 2015-2019. I think this is why I have decided that finding a conttollable Tier 1 guy who can pair w/ Alvarez once Tucker is gone needs to be a priority (this offseason if not the trade deadline). I think swing for the fences and try to land Robert. I love Vlad and he would be huge this year and next, but doesn't fill the biggest need over the next 5 years.
I've seen the Robert Jr. love in this thread and the trade thread... but truly don't understand it. He had a single season where he hit 5.0WAR (last year). His second highest was 3.6WAR (3 years ago). He'll be 27 years old this season and may not even break the 2.0WAR mark. Why would the Astros hitch their wagon to Robert Jr in prospect cost and capitol when he is likely on the backside of his prime years as an outfielder?
His history is a valid concern. However. 1) 27 is not "the backside of his prime years as an outfielder" His final year of team control is his age 29 season, so the entirety of his contract is within his prime. 2) As for "he may not even break the 2.0 mark", he has 1.4 bWAR in 179 PAs. That's 5.1 over 648 PAs (162g × 4). Still, he is on pace for nearly 3.5 even missing 1/3 of the season. 3) He has averaged 5.5 bWAR per 162 games in his career. 4) He has a career OPS of 850 and .738 is his career worst ( as a 22 yr old rookie during COVID) 5) He plays for the most miserable organization with no talent around him to help him produce. Fewer runs, RBI, and productive out opportunities. 6) it's gotta be tough playing for the White Sox.
Deadline will have a big impact on the outlook, but a reasonable 2029 projection: SS Matthews 2B Altuve DH Alvarez LF Baez 1B Diaz RF Melton 3B Dezenzo C Janek CF Loperfido Bench: Whitcomb, Salazar, Cabbage, Leon SP: Brown, Blanco, Bloss, Blubaugh, Arrighetti RP: Dubin, Santos, Santa, Tredwell, Ullola, Scott, Forcucci, Taylor Haven’t dug in yet but I think that roster would project for 35-45 war which is 85-95 wins and would have a ton of payroll flexibility with only Altuve and Alvarez on large contracts.
It also looks like you're saying they'll part ways with Abreu after the '26 season when he's a FA. I guess with Hader signed Abreu will want closer $$.
I actually think that roster would have very little flexibility. Diaz, Brown, and Scott (and Yordan but you addressed that) all come up for FA before 2029 so if they are on here they signed extensions or returned as FA. Most everybody else is into arbitration, many in deep. This team will have very few if any guys on min salary contracts. It feels like outside of Altuve and Yordan it will be " death of a thousand papercuts" where many $10-15M contracts instead of a few $25M+ contracts drive up the payroll.
There’s also 5 years of draft picks and international signings and extensions and internal development that aren’t factored into that roster at all.
It's basically impossible to put players that nobody even knows about. "3b= 2026 University of Florida starter who is the 2026 first rd pick" Or "SP= John Doe Garcia who is signed out of DR as an 18 year old in 2025" Both are entertaining but allow for less baseball talk and more sheer goofiness in the responses.
I just updated my analysis to reflect changes since the beginning of the season. Summary: Downside changes to the outlook: McCormick fell apart Bad injury news for pitchers with long term control (Javier, McCullers, Garcia) Draft only added 2 large bonus prospects (Janek and Forcucci) Upside changes: Hunter Brown and Yainer Diaz look like building blocks Prospect timelines expedited Verlander’s option not vesting frees up some payroll Spoiler: Updated Astros 5 Year Outlook: 2024 post-trade deadline 2025: C: Diaz, Caratini; 4 fwar, $7M IF: Dezenzo, Altuve, Matthews, Pena, Dubon, others; 8 fwar, $57M (includes $20M owed to Jose Abreu) OF: Tucker, Meyers, Alvarez, McCormick, Leon, others; 13 fwar, $47M SP: Valdez, Blanco, Brown, Garcia, Arrighetti, others; 11 fwar, $53M (includes $30M owed to McCullers and Javier) RP: Hader, Pressly, Abreu, others; 5 fwar, $52M (includes $12M owed to Montero) Free agent losses: Bregman, Verlander, Kikuchi, Ferguson, Graveman Prospects ready: Shay Whitcomb, Jacob Melton, Jacob Amaya, Zach Cole, Kenedy Corona, Brice Matthews, Quincy Hamilton, AJ Blubaugh, Ryan Gusto, Forrest Whitley, Colton Gordon, Miguel Ullola, Ethan Pecko, other pitchers Arbitration class: Tucker, Meyers, McCormick, Dubon, Pena, Valdez, Garcia, B Abreu Projections: 40 fwar, $220M; 87-97 wins, depending on spending and luck Needs: 1B, 3B, LF, SP Summary: They will have a little (not a lot) of money to spend, but have to be VERY prudent with it. They have some prospects who could dramatically change the outlook if they bust out next year (Matthews, Dezenzo, Melton). The glut of controllable starting pitchers carries a lot of upside and downside, and that may be what ultimately determines if Houston continues to contend. 2026: Losses: Tucker, Caratini, Valdez, Pressly Prospects ready: Miguel Palma, Luis Baez, lots of pitchers Arbitration class: Diaz, Pena, McCormick, Dubon, Meyers, Brown, Garcia, Bryan Abreu Projections: 40 fWAR, $160M; 85-95 wins Summary: This season has placed a lot of uncertainty on 2026 and beyond. McCormick, Meyers, Javier, and Pena are no longer building blocks, but instead complementary players who might get too expensive in their out years. Josh Hader’s contract looks likely to be underwater. Potentially offsetting that, along with having some available payroll, has been the expedited development of high ceiling prospects like Matthews, Dezenzo, Melton, and others. The pitching staff should be deep but lacks a surefire ace without Framber. The bottom line is that without Framber and Tucker, unless Crane is willing to dramatically overspend, if the system hasn’t developed at least 2 cost controlled stars from their current farm, this team will likely not be a contender. 2027: Losses: McCormick, Dubon, McCullers, Garcia, Bryan Abreu Prospects ready: Walker Janek, Chase Jaworsky, Nehomar Ochoa, Kenni Gomez, Alonzo Tredwell, Andrew Taylor, Ryan Forcucci, others Arbitration class: Diaz, Pena, Meyers, Brown, Blanco, Arrighetti Projections: 40 fWAR, $160M; 85-95 wins Summary: Offense built around Altuve, Yordan, Diaz, and Pena. Pitching built around Brown, Blanco, Arrighetti, Javier, and Hader. Prospects and spending will determine everything. 2028: Losses: Pena, Meyers, Javier Prospects ready: Waner Luciano, Camilo Diaz, Esmil Valencia, German Ramirez, 2025 draft picks, many others Arbitration class: Diaz, Brown, Blanco, Arrighetti, others Projections: 35 fWAR, $130M; 80-100 wins Summary: Offense built around Altuve, Yordan, and Diaz. Pitching built around Brown, Blanco, Arrighetti, and Hader. Prospects and spending will determine everything. They could have a LOT of available payroll at this point. 2029: Losses: Diaz, Alvarez, Brown, Hader Prospects ready: Eduardo Perez, 2026 draft picks, many many others Arbitration class: Arrighetti, Blanco, many others Projections: 30 fwar, $80M; 75-100 wins Summary: By this point Altuve could be the only player we can reasonably project to the roster, and he will be 39 years old. But he is also the only guaranteed contract on the books. So essentially it’s a clean slate and Dana Brown’s drafting/development process (along with any extensions and free agents) will determine if Houston has returned to just another MLB franchise, or if they are still in an unprecedented run of success. It would not surprise me at all if Jim Crane wasn’t even around by this point. My attitude is that if they don’t think they have at least 2 guys who will be in the top 5 of the 2025 ROY voting, they should trade Tucker, Framber, and Hader (eating most of his contract) to rebuild the farm, tank 2025, and hope to be back in 2026 similar to where they were in 2015.
I think the exact opposite. The trade deadline showed that you can get big returns on expiring contracts if the player has All Star level ceiling. They need to go for it in 2025 and then trade at the deadline (or before) if injuries or lack of production purs them out, or on the fringes of the race. Framber, Brown, McCullers, Blanco, Arrighetti, Garcia, and France is a very good rotation if at least 5 of them are healthy. Adding a TOR or MOR arm really helps this unit too. The bullpen has lots of depth. There are a dozen candidates who have shown potential to be positive contributors. RP are notoriously inconsistent so its just about picking the right ones at the right time. Diaz, Yordan, Tucker, and Altuve still provide a good foundation for run production. Meyers and Pena have settled in as slightly better than average starters at premium defensive positions. If they can be the 7th or lower best hitters on the team it should he great. 1b and LF should be easy and cheap positions to fill. (I know we said that this year). Hopefully some combination of Dezenzo, Whitcomb, Leon, and/or Melton turn in ROY type seasons but I don't think it's a requirement. A veteran could be signed to a Brantley-like 2yr deal for 1b,3b, or LF. No team is perfect. If Dubon ends up playing 3b or Singleton ends up at 1b again it will hurt but the rest of the talent could make up for it . It will all be about health.
Totally agree with this. Next year I would like to see the lineup look something like this. 1. Altuve 2b 2. Tucker RF 3. Yordan DH 4. Diaz 5. Sign Santander LF 6. Dezenzo 3b 7. Mountcastle 1B trade Pressly, Tamarez and Ullola to O's. 8. Pena 9. Meyers SP Kikuchi Framber Brown Blanco Arrighetti Bullpen Hader Abreu Scott Garcia Ort King Whitley Dubin Waiting in the minors Bluebaugh Gusto Ferguson Not getting my hopes up any longer LMJ.
Santander is probably going to get 5 years and upwards of $70M. Houston can’t afford to do that and add a SP. If Kikuchi performs the rest of the way like he has with Houston, he’s also going to get a sizable contract, in his mid 30s. Trading for Mountcastle is a reasonable move, assuming the cost isn’t high, which based on the deadline prices, it will be. The last thing I want is for the Astros to add anymore potential albatross contracts. I’m fine with them keeping the team together another year, as long as the moves they make do not include long term commitments and do not trade away any good prospects. Carlos Santana or Josh Bell on a 1 or 2 year deal, Mark Canha or Michael Conforto one a one or 2 year deal, and the lineup will be fine. Re-sign Kikuchi or Verlander for one or two years or Scherzer for 1 or 2 years. Be ready to sell at the deadline.
I see Bregs/JV//Trade Pressly, that should clear up about 50 mil next year off of the books and then getting LMJ/Abreu/Montero off of the books will save around another 45-50 mil in 2025. I think if Crane wants to make a move he can do this.
