Interesting - can you explain the methodology behind this, please? Can I conclude from this that the more minutes Sengun gets, the higher the likelihood of a Rockets victory?
I would say no! - starters are often subbed out in blow out losses, hence correlating more minutes of starters with wins - Rebounds are also correlated to opponent team missing shots, which is when you win games
You are reading it the right way - it could indicate that. But as @NewAge pointed out these things leave room for us to provide context around the results. For example, we are a horrible rebounding team, so when Sengun has an especially good rebounding game it probably has an outsized impact on the game. I did this for a few players on our team, just playing around. FVV's greatest win predictor was somehow personal fouls - the more he committed, the more his teams won. Interesting. Spoiler A Random Forest is a bunch of Decision Trees. Each tree looks at random parts of the data which is meant to reduce overfitting. So then you consider all these different Decision Trees and, altogether, they should be more accurate than a single Decision Tree. Anyway, I'm going to use this offseason to fiddle around with various NBA stats and will try to show them in ways we don't typically see them. Mainly because I'm just curious.
For years I was just a plain old data analyst. What a boring ass title. So lame, thought the young Haymitch. Then Data Scientist came into existence as a job title and I thought it was so cool. Got my Masters in it. But since there is literally no formal definition for Data Scientist it is often used by Excel users whose knowledge peaks at a pivot table. So now I don't even want to use that label because it has jumped the shark. My actual job title is Senior Statistician, but Data Scientist is probably more accurate, and I wouldn't be surprised if my title was changed to that at some point. But in real-life settings when I don't want to talk about work and someone asks what I do, I just say "data analyst" because no one is interested after that so they have no follow up questions.
Cool stuff. I would be interested in something like "comparable players" - looking at players who played the same position and their trajectory of improvement if they had similar stats in season 1, season 2, at the same age. It seems counter-intuitive to me to think that Sengun would not improve from season 2 to season 3 (unless a new coach would cut his minutes and/or take the ball out of his hands). For me, the logical progression from this: would be that he plays something like 31/32 minutes and gets his stats up to at least 18/10/5/1/1, which I think would already put him in the top 5 center region. If he can keep up his 3-point shooting from 2023 (43.8 %) at higher volume AND be so good on defense and has the stamina that he even gets 33/34 minutes, I could even see him average 19/11/6 or something like that, which would be pretty elite at age 21 already. @Haymitch - did you see this thread? https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/...-you-would-least-want-to-build-around.318837/
Maybe Bam wouldn't have agreed with the local experts like Kelly Iko and others who thought Bruno Fernando should start over Alpi.
I don't think he had that choice. He often expressed hidden frustrations bc his schedule did not allow him to improve his game. I remember one time he talked about how amare can do so much more a few years into the league.
He joined RW few days ago. And he repeatedly said Alp needs to get better on defensive end or his minutes will decrease and he might lose his spot in the starting lineup because there will be accountability and bla bla bla. The funny part is he didn't say anything similar for any other player in the roster. Someone really needs to let some people know that when it comes to accountability, Alp should be the least concerned among youngsters in the team since you know he was the best prospect in the team last season. By far. I don't take Kelly Iko seriously. I don't think he knows much about the game. He just knows what's going on within the organization more than we do and that's about it.
I don't know who it is in the Rockets front office who keeps slagging off Alpi to the few people with some sort of media or "insider" access, or if it's these people's own bias speaking, or a mix of both, but it's truly bizarre. Brunogate, then Alpi outplays everyone on the team the entire season, and the same people are still spouting the same stuff. Accountability, yes, of course - defense, yes, of course - but that applies equally to everyone. With some of these guys, it almost sounds like it just comes down to them not liking him/his "archetype", and they don't even care how well he plays, they don't even want him to succeed. It's really weird.
Watched that earlier. Interesting comparison of him with Sabonis and Jokic. Rockets are going to be legit this season. Lots of players are going to eat.
