Brown and Endersby in High A stick out to me, though that could be due to the glut of arms in Fayetteville. It'll be interesting to see which arms stand out there. I've always had a soft spot in my heart for Marty Costes because the Astros drafted him twice. He's apparently got real power, and hasn't ever been bad, just hurt.
Without many blue chip prospects, Astros need to keep finding the everyday MLP stalwarts. Many of the current young guys on Astros that are having positive impacts weren’t even highly thought of prospects. Shoot, when Altuve was called up way back, had he ever even been ranked in the top 10 Astros prospects on any list? Back then all the hype was for Delino DeShields. I for one though Altuve was going to be a one season place holder until DeShields came up... Geesh was I wrong.
I saw that Marty Costes’ brother Maxwell Costes is expected to be drafted pretty high. From the interview of Marty on the Fayetteville podcast he seems like a high character prospect so I wouldn’t mind them drafting his brother.
https://www.mlb.com/news/astros-minor-league-spring-training-report Not much new there. More hype for Leon and Brown. Positive notes on Solomon. Pena is hurt. Nova has put on 35 pounds, so he is likely to be more of a 3B than SS.
Rome's reply comment mentioned CJ Stubbs drew rave reviews in camp, which is a great sign. Notable they have Matijevic listed as an infielder. My guess for opening day lineups/rotations for each team: AAA: CF Siri SS De Goti 3B Toro 1B Jones RF De La Cruz DH Shaver LF Dawson 2B Hinojosa C Stubbs Rotation: Ivey, Conine, Dubin, Hansen, Hartman AA: SS Leon 3B Kessinger C Stubbs 1B Gonzalez 2B Matijevic RF Taylor DH Manea CF Adolph LF Costes Rotation: Brown, Donato, Daniels, Mushinski, France High A: CF Barber SS Nova RF McKenna C Lee DH Abreu 1B Schreiber LF Rodriguez 2B Santana 3B Valdez Rotation: Brown, Rivera, Henley, Ruppenthal, Lopez A: CF Daniels SS Whitcomb RF Barefoot DH Dirden 3B Perez LF Corona C Berryhill 1B Ramirez 2B Correa Rotation: Macuare, Schroeder, Ramirez, Moclair, Melendez All the rotations under AAA will probably vary throughout the season.
May, June, July Then he's got the Fall and Winter leagues to tune up if needed, and he'll be ready for something next Spring. He's only 21
Went through an exercise tryin to gauge the odds of Houston having an internal option to replace Correa and/or Straw next season. I figure the odds of any player at High A or lower being mlb ready by opening day next season are essentially zero, so I only evaluated guys assigned to AA or higher. Here’s how I grouped their individual odds of being ready to be an everyday mlb player next season: ~1% each (guys who can’t hit or play CF/SS): Garrett Stubbs, Lorenzo Quintana, Mike Papierski, Colton Shaver, Scott Manea, Chandler Taylor. These guys can’t play CF or SS, and their bats don’t profile as having any realistic chance of being good enough this season to warrant an everyday mlb job next year, either in Houston or as a major trade chip. ~1% each (guys who can play CF/SS but probably can’t hit): Mike Wielansky, Miguelangel Sierra, David Hensley, Marty Costes, Corey Julks. These guys can play CF or SS but their bats are very unlikely to take the step necessary to warrant a full time big league role by next season. ~1% each (guys who might be able to hit but can’t play CF/SS): Norel Gonzalez, JJ Matijevic, CJ Stubbs, Jake Adams. These are AA bats with upside, but with major question marks and defensive limitations. This is where I will mention that it’s possible a bat emerges (like Gonzalez) who can play 1B and hit well enough to warrant moving Gurriel back to 3B and Bregman to SS next season. ~5% each (guys who can play CF/SS and might be able to hit, but it’s a long shot): Ross Adolph, Grae Kessinger, CJ Hinojosa, Alex De Goti, Jake Meyers, Jose Siri, Ronnie Dawson. These guys can play CF or SS but would have to take an unexpected leap forward to warrant replacing Straw or Correa. Unexpected, but plausible. ~5% each (guys whose bats might be good enough to make room for, or be used in trade): Taylor Jones, Bryan De La Cruz. These guys have significant offensive upside, but would have to hit so well that Houston would be convinced to move Gurriel back to 3B and Bregman back to SS. Although it is also possible that Jones could show well enough to play 3B and De La Cruz could be tried in CF. Unlikely, but possible. ~10% each: Abraham Toro, Jeremy Pena. Toro is a good prospect with the upside of an everyday major league 3B. A great season from him would warrant moving Bregman over to SS. But the odds of Toro taking that step forward aren’t that great. Pena was poised to be the SS of the future before breaking his wrist. Had that injury not occurred he would be in the tier with Leon. But now the odds of him coming back in July/August and playing well enough to convince Click to make him the starting SS in Houston are pretty long. ~20%: Pedro Leon. Leon has the offensive ceiling and defensive skill set to replace either Correa or Straw. But he hasn’t played consistently and has never faced competition like he will this season. A good season likely pencils him in the Astros lineup next year. I’ve pegged the odds of that as around 1 in 5. All totaled up that adds up to ~100% so if I were placing bets on whether a player in Houstons upper minors is in the Astros everyday lineup early next season, I would take that bet.
Abreu graduated and MLB.com added CJ Stubbs to their Top 30. Stubbs has a big opportunity this season. Success in AA will give his stock a huge boost especially if he shows he can stick at catcher. They rate him with 45 power but I think he is more of a 50 with potential for 55. I also think he could be a 45 speed rather than 40. 45 hit, 55 power, 55 arm, 50 glove would make him a pretty good catching prospect.
The Corpus assignment seemed so aggressive I kind of assumed he was sent there to sink or swim until Lee or Perry was ready for AA. It sounds like the Astros are really excited for him. He essentially played 1 season at Catcher before being drafted, so if he performs at AA, it will answer a lot of questions about his profile.
Looks like RHP Lupe Chavez retired. He was acquired for Scott Feldman a few years ago and had gotten some notice, but had an odd family situation in Mexico that threw his career into turmoil, and it looks like he is now done for good. https://www.milb.com/player/lupe-chavez-660826 Perusing the GCL/DSL rosters (which I don't think have been updated as there are quite a few DSL guys who have been confirmed as being in the states), here are the guys not on any roster but still show as in "Houston Astros Organization" on milb.com; it's pretty safe to assume they are all injured, although some may have been released without it being announced: C: Nathan Perry, Cesar Salazar IF: Jake Adams, Jeremy Pena, Deury Carrasco, Zach Biermann, Bryan Arias, Cody Orr OF: Carlos Machado, Jordan Brewer, Luis Guerrero P: Forrest Whitley, Carson LaRue, Cody Deason, Jairo SOlis, Valente Bellozo, Garrett Gayle, Ryan Gusto, Jairo Lopez, Leovanny Rodriguez, Carmen Benedetti, Shea Barry, Derek West, Peyton Plumlee, Elian Rodriguez, Kevin Dickey, Jervic Chavez There are also a bunch of prospects who were confirmed to have signed with Houston that do not show up anywhere in milb.com. These are almost all recent DSL signees whose profiles just haven't been created yet, although Kyle Gruller was a UDFA that once appeared on Corpus' roster, so not sure what happened to him: Juan Santander, Narbe Cruz, Fernando Caldera, Christopher Morales, Richi Gonzalez, Everett Cooper, Luis Perez, Elvis Garcia, Luis Encarnacion, Josue Payano, Denfry De La Cruz, Danyuri Guzman, Eurys Martich, Richel del Rosario, Yamal Encarnacion, Kyle Gruller Also, there are 4 prospects who were recently added to the DSL roster that I had not seen anything on before, all pitchers: Jose Andujar, Carlos Hiraldo, Cesar Rojas, Alimber Santa. A quick google search didn't turn up anything of note. I believe the GCL/DSL games will start up in June, but a quick search didn't come up with anything concrete.
More CJ Stubbs hype with bonus hype for Kenedy Corona. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/cj-stubbs-could-join-brother-in-reaching-majors/
Former Astros draftees (2011 to present) active in other systems: Springer (1, 2011): Jays MLB Adrian Houser (2, 2011): Brewers MLB Nick Tropeano (5 ,2011): Giants AAA Rio Ruiz (4 ,2012): Orioles MLB Brett Phillips (6, 2012): Rays MLB Mark Appel (1, 2013): Phillies MLB Tony Kemp (5, 2013): A's MLB Jake Nottingham (6 ,2013): Brewers MLB Jason Martin (8, 2013): Rangers AAA Daniel Pinero* (20, 2013): Tigers AAA Tyler White (33, 2013): Jays AAA Brady Aiken* (1, 2014): Indians AAA Derek Fisher (1, 2014): Brewers MLB JD Davis (3 ,2014): Mets MLB Jacob Nix* (5, 2014): Paders AA Jamie Ritchie (13, 2014): Snakes AAA Nick Tanielu (14, 2014): Padres AAA Ramon Laureano (16, 2014): A's MLB Mac Marshall* (21, 2014): Giants AA Ryan Thompson (23, 2014): Rays MLB Daz Cameron (1, 2015): Tigers AAA Tom Eshelman (2, 2015): Orioles AAA Trent Thornton (5, 2015): Jays MLB Patrick Sandoval (11, 2015): Angels MLB Drew Ferguson (19, 2015): Mets AAA Cole Sands* (22, 2015): Twins AA Kody Clemens* (35, 2015): Tigers AAA Luken Baker* (37, 2015): Cards AA Jake Rogers (3 ,2016): Tigers AAA Tyler Buffett* (7, 2016): Reds Restricted Brian Howard* (17, 2016): A's AAA Chuckie Robinson (21, 2016): Reds AAA Darius Vines* (32, 2016): Braves Rk JB Bukauskas (1, 2017): Snakes MLB Corbin Martin (2, 2017): Snakes AAA Josh Rojas (26, 2017): Snakes MLB Cody Bohanek (30, 2017): Mets High A Josh Breaux* (36, 2017): Yankees High A Trey Cumbie* (38, 2017): Rays Rk Seth Beer (1, 2018): Snakes MLB Dalton Roach* (21, 2018): Cards AA Lyle Lin* (29, 2018): Snakes A Ben Gross* (34, 2018): Twins High A Peyton Battenfield (9, 2019): Rays High A *never signed with Astros.
I like your conclusion . But I think you gave yourself a bit of a hidden out with the “everyday lineup” when most of the post is about SS/CF . You do grant the possibility of Bregman moving to SS and one of the minor leaguers taking 3rd. You even said something about Yuli . what do you think of the possibility of Tucker moving to CF . And a young guy coming up and playing right ? Tucker is just an overall tricky player to evaluate . Sometimes he Actually looks like Ted and makes great catches and sometimes he Looks like a minor leaguer (both offensively and defensively ) I really got sold on him last year . I hope that wasn’t the peak lol . To me , he might have the highest position player upside on the roster .
