1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

Officially the WORST record in the league

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by DaDakota, Apr 12, 2021.

  1. Sanctity

    Sanctity Member

    Joined:
    May 9, 2019
    Messages:
    2,255
    Likes Received:
    1,609
    Wizards organization:. You John Wall have impressed us so much, here's gazillion dollars for your dance talents. You will forever be the contract that can't be moved. Unless....
     
  2. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2011
    Messages:
    8,891
    Likes Received:
    11,322
    The idea that having the worst record is irrelevant is just wrong.

    This has nothing at all to do with the Rockets owing OKC their pick outside the top 4 , that is irrelevant.

    Previously the #3 pick was the first lotto ball pulled and #4 was as far as the worst team could fall.

    Correct me if I'm wrong here -



    With the rule change , the #4 pick is the first lotto ball pulled.

    The worst record would pick no lower than 5th.
    The 2nd worst no lower than 6th.
    The 3rd worst no lower than 7th.

    With that understanding , there is some mathematical advantage to having the worst record because the more teams that leap into those top 4 picks , the further down each of those teams do fall.

    If the a team finish's worst , that means 4 teams have to jump ahead of them to push them to 5.

    If they are second worst and 4 teams jump them they get #6.

    If 4 teams jump the 3rd worst team they get #7.

    Remember they each have the same odds for each picks 1 thru 4 but #2 has one worse outcome than #1 and #3 has two worse outcomes than #1 and one worse than #2.

    There is "Some" advantage in having the worst record in that it limits how far you fall from that top spot.
     
  3. DonatelloLimestone

    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2021
    Messages:
    1,804
    Likes Received:
    1,959

    From my understanding what we see in tv is not the ‘live action pull’. I believe they do it several times over in the ‘backroom’ in terms of whatever their formula is to approach each odds and then do one for tv excitement with everyone outside so getting pulled first doesn’t change the outcome, it makes for great tv unless they changed how they do that with the new rules.

    It’ll be a crap shoot, so long as we don’t float over number 3 our best shot is a 52 percent, basically around Tobias Harris/Sabonis fg chances per game or a more optimistic look is our chance is about 10 percent higher than steph currys chance at making a 3 he shoots.
     
  4. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 1999
    Messages:
    8,341
    Likes Received:
    4,810
    That's not how the lottery works.

    Each of the bottom three teams has IDENTICAL mathematical odds at each of the top 4 picks. Each of them has a 52% chance at a top-4 pick and a 48% chance at falling outside the top-4.
     
    Sluball3, B-Bob, daywalker02 and 2 others like this.
  5. dmoneybangbang

    Joined:
    May 5, 2012
    Messages:
    20,941
    Likes Received:
    12,825
    Having the worst record just helps lock you in the top 3 best odds.
     
    daywalker02 and DaDakota like this.
  6. gogispade

    gogispade Member

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2014
    Messages:
    1,015
    Likes Received:
    658
    now we all know that the tanking is real becouse Clutch didnt even start game thread for Indy game haha
     
  7. DJboutit

    DJboutit Member

    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2008
    Messages:
    2,632
    Likes Received:
    491
    We are a

    [​IMG]
     
    B-Bob and ico4498 like this.
  8. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2011
    Messages:
    8,891
    Likes Received:
    11,322
    That's exactly how the lottery works , the first 4 picks are dictated by ping pong balls and the rest by record from worst to best. The percentages are irrelevant in this discussion as the hypothetical is that none of the worst 4 remain in the top 4 picks.

    Sure they are "equal in mathematical odds". Where they aren't equal is in the consequences after falling out of the top 4.

    The team with the worst record can only fall to 5.
    The team with the second worst record can fall to 6.
    The team with the 3rd worst record can fall to 7.

    That's the worst case outcome for any of those teams.



    Hypothetically the lottery falls like the following -

    1Toronto
    2Sacramento
    3Washington
    4OKC

    The rest of the draft is placed by record.
    5 Minny
    6Houston
    7Detroit
    8Orlando

    Bottom line , there are circumstances where being worst has its advantages over being 2nd / 3rd worst.
     
  9. PatBev

    PatBev Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2017
    Messages:
    3,067
    Likes Received:
    4,534
    Somehow Minnesota has a worst record

    They really are a bad franchise lol
     
    TimDuncanDonaut likes this.
  10. RHU525

    RHU525 Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2002
    Messages:
    4,521
    Likes Received:
    6,175
    At this point they have to be losing on purpose. Because their pick will go to Golden State outside top 3.
     
  11. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2006
    Messages:
    88,844
    Likes Received:
    42,771
    [​IMG]
     
  12. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 1999
    Messages:
    8,341
    Likes Received:
    4,810
    Sure, but those circumstances are inapplicable to the Houston Rockets in the year 2021 . . . which is what I thought this entire thread was about.
     
    Wulaw Horn, B-Bob and YOLO like this.
  13. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2006
    Messages:
    88,844
    Likes Received:
    42,771
    Mathematics and luck which can be worked out by mathematics.
     
  14. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2011
    Messages:
    8,891
    Likes Received:
    11,322
    Correct because if the Rockets fall outside the top 4 they give it to OKC and get Miami's pick being the worst of the three.

    My initial response was in regard to a tweet in one of these threads on tanking - so many they all run together now - I can't locate that tweet but it caused some uproar , mostly towards Silas.

    The point of the tweet was that being worst had no advantages and that's just downright false.

    Being worst means that teams pick would fall no lower than 5 - regardless of debts owed.
     
  15. YOLO

    YOLO Member

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2012
    Messages:
    46,478
    Likes Received:
    44,654
    Are you talking about this tweet from Clutch.



    If so, there's nothing false about it, because he's talking about the Rockets
     
  16. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2011
    Messages:
    8,891
    Likes Received:
    11,322
    No. Was another .... really not a big deal.
     
  17. Dash

    Dash Member

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2014
    Messages:
    441
    Likes Received:
    530
    nah nick caserio gives me hope for the texans
     
  18. banzai

    banzai Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2013
    Messages:
    2,410
    Likes Received:
    1,404
    I kinda like that every game we go down by 20... then comeback like blind fury and scare the crap out of us and other teams... can you imagine when we ain’t gotta pull the chute at the end? We can’t let Dallas ever best us tho. Lol
     
  19. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 1999
    Messages:
    14,947
    Likes Received:
    6,152
    Tilman deserves it
     
  20. HoustonWest

    HoustonWest Member

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2014
    Messages:
    351
    Likes Received:
    605
    I guess. I still think it's a bit of a flaming bandwagon with passengers foaming at the mouth to perpetually blame Fertitta for everything. Yes the Westbrook trade was bad, many felt it was predictably bad. Certainly was ill-advised in hindsight.

    It's not like he did it for no reason -- the trade was done to appease Harden, who evidently hated Fertitta a lot more for other reasons. But it's not like Fertitta did it without consulting with Harden.

    Harden will ultimately get his own blame for how things went down due to his passive persona and inability to bond with Paul -- or attract other stars to Houston (which matters when, in this era, players are effectively running shadow free agency).

    Had that trade not happened, would Paul still be in Houston? Doubtful, but certainly Houston might have more trade assets. I highly, highly doubt Houston would have gotten the haul that Oklahoma City received from Phoenix; the situations were entirely different.

    Let's not pretend like the outcome wouldn't have been much different. I think Harden would've still wanted out to team up with his buddy Durant. The championship window closed when they couldn't land Butler -- not Fertitta's fault.
     

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now