https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-top-100-prospects/ Astros have 4 prospects on this list: 62. Urquidy 72. Abreu 84. Whitley 89. Conine Conine is the big surprise. He made it to AA in his first full pro season and put up great numbers along the way. There’s nothing about his pedigree that would indicate he will be a good major leaguer, but with those numbers he is one to watch in AA this season. He could be the kind of college pitcher who is never seen on top prospect lists because he doesn’t impress scouts and moves quickly thru the minors, but ends up being a long time MoR SP.
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-international/summary?sort=14,1 Fangraphs updated their international signee rankings, and Pedro Leon is 6th with a FV of 40+. That 40+ value would place him well outside the Top 100, and have him in the 8-15 range of Houston’s org list. That’s surprising and disappointing, but hopefully he will be placed in a high level and perform well, and his grade will be quickly raised.
Their rankings really mean nothing at this point because of how little information they have. They dock him for his 5'9" frame. The Astros are the only team that had a complete workout with him. They had him use equipment that provided all types of measures and they had a great deal of sophisticated video measures. Less that 48 hours after the workout and reviewing the information, the Astros had reached an agreement to pay him the highest bonus in the class at the time. He may never be special (I do not know) but the fact that only one team had a private workout, and immediately after that workout, that team signed the player to the largest bonus tells me something. Especially an organization that has a good track record. The only criticism I have heard from anyone in baseball is that there are some questions about his ability to hit off speed stuff......... he does literally every thing else well. He has an extremely strong arm, he is a very good fielder, he runs very well, he is a very good athlete and he has very strong wrists that produce carry on balls that would normally be routine outs. There is also a question about whether his size is even a negative if he can generate so much power, then his size means a smaller strike zone.
Because I couldn't find any examples of a cuban player signing a large bonus minor league deal in July and playing stateside later that season. Yolbert Sanchez was pretty much in the same situation and didn't leave the DSL. I suspect that the tax avoided on the signing bonus means more to the team and player than the 250 ABs he might get playing real games for the first time in a while.
Excited to see some young bucks get reps in ST. I’m cautiously optimistic that our farm is deep enough to survive the Greinke trade + loss of picks. Just need a few middle tier guys to improve and surprise. We really need to hit on Alvarez/Tucker/Whitley...but I’m excited to see Nova and a few other guys this spring. Any posters want to shed some optimistic light for our farm? Anything is better than the 2017 thread at this point.
As April gets closer I’m getting more and more excited about the large group of high ceiling position players in the lower levels: Korey Lee, Nathan Perry, Grae Kessinger, Luis Santana, Nova, Joe Perez, Colin Barber, Jordan Brewer. And you can add Pedro Leon to that list in July. Each of those guys has a chance to be an everyday player and several of them have a chance to be star level players. Quad Cities lineup is going to be extremely deep and I’m hoping we see 3-4 of those guys make a big jump and become the type of prospects that can either become part of the next core group or used as centerpieces of significant trades. The upper levels are pretty barren when it comes to position players, aside from Jeremy Pena (Pena is the main young position player I will he watching in big league spring training to see how overmatched he is). But Fayetteville and especially QC should be relatively stacked. The other thing I’m excited about is the pitching at the upper levels. There are easily 20 guys with MLB futures who will be assigned between RR and CC. Many of them will throw in big league spring training so it’ll be great to see where they stand. The number of guys throwing 96+ is pretty insane and even tho it hasn’t worked out the last couple of years, I’m still hopeful we will see a few guys come up and establish themselves as long term pitchers on the big league staff. Whitley, Abreu, and Javier are guys getting talked about, but lesser prospects like Taylor, Paredes, Rodriguez, Conine, Garcia, Torres, and Dubin all have excellent stuff and high ceilings. And Cionel Perez is a forgotten arm I think could surprise. This farm lacks the top tier talent it did when it was ranked among the top 5 in the league from 2013-2017, but the depth is still really really good, and the total talent pool is better than it was anytime in the decade prior to Luhnow’s arrival. And if you factor in age instead of prospect status, the youth in this organization is still amazing (Correa, Bregman, Tucker, Alvarez, Straw, and Osuna all have yet to fully enter the traditional prime age). Leon, Toro, Pena, Nova, and Lee is a fine fivesome of position player talent; I’d place each of those guys among the top 300 prospects in the league. And Id say the same thing on the pitching side with the foursome of Whitley, Urquidy, Abreu, and Javier.
From this post, I'm most interested in Whitley, Urquidy, Javier, Abreu, Lee, Toro, and Kessinger. Whitley, Urquidy, Javier, and Abreu as this year they all could help MLB team or show that maybe they won't help much at all. Lee is probably the top position prospect outside Toro who I think will be fine. Kessinger needs a swing change. If he starts hitting for power he will fly up the ranks. If he doesn't, he'll get more Fontana comps.
2 guys I didn’t mention because I personally am not high on them, but who bear watching this spring are Taylor Jones and JJ Matijevic. Jones being added to the 40 man roster was eye opening, since it means obviously Luhnow thinks he has a major league future. And any 1B protected from the Rule 5 means the front office thinks the bat can be special. That Jones was protected over someone like Jonathan Arauz, who most people had ranked as one of the top 20 prospects in the system, says something. Like I said, I’m not high on him, but there’s evidence that I am way wrong. Matijevic has the pedigree and exit velocity to also potentially be an impact bat, and there’s reason to believe his middling numbers over the last 2 seasons are not representative of his talent level. I am typically very skeptical of prospects who strike out a lot and have defensive limitations, but I still think Matijevic is worth seeing how he fares when/if he gets at bats against big league pitchers this spring.
BA's top 30 is now on their site. Most notably they have Blair Henley at 22, Austin Hansen at 27, and Chandler Taylor at 30. Henley apparently gained a bit of velocity by the end of the season, Hansen is up to 98 with 2 potential above average breaking balls, and Taylor is ++ power, + arm, average speed with a huge question about the hit tool. They also had Jose Rivera throwing 97-102 which is harder than other outlets have reported, I think. I continue to be excited about the pitching in this system, but it would be really nice to see some of that materialize at the major league level.
With 26th man added to active roster, I can see the potential for defensive liabilities getting a better chance of hanging around. That spot will be interesting to see how it turns out across the league. Though as long as Reddick is on the roster, I think Astros options are limited. Jones is a guy who needs to learn to get loft on the ball.
Saw Henly pitch a few times when he was at UT and he can really spin it. Glad to see a Longhorn having some success in the Astros system.
I spent some time evaluating the position players in the system using 4 very basic criteria (strikeouts, power, pedigree, defensive ability) which evolved from observing what have seemed to me over 10 years to be the leading indicators of prospect success. In the end prospects fell into 10 groups: Spoiler: Prospect Tiers Keep in mind these are not grades or rankings, but groupings based on filtering for criteria. I have made notes wherever a prospect seems out of place in an attempt to highlight potential underrated/overrated guys. Tier 1: Checks all the boxes. Highly likely to be an everyday player and potentially a star level player: 3B Abraham Toro RF Pedro Leon Tier 2: Checks all the boxes, but has limitations that likely prevent the player from being a star: IF Jack Mayfield C Nathan Perry: hits for power, doesn’t strike out too much, plays a premium defensive position, relatively high draft pick pedigree Tier 3: 1 major wart, but high upside and moderately high floor: SS Jeremy Pena IF Freudis Nova OF Colin Barber: hits for power, plus defender/athlete, big bonus draftee, doesn’t strikeout too much OF Jordan Brewer IF Grae Kessinger C Garrett Stubbs 2B Luis Santana OF Ronnie Dawson: strikeout problem is his only wart; hits for power, plays a passable CF, 2rd pick Tier 4: 1 major wart and limited upside, but a moderately high floor (starting with this tier players are just listed in order of highest level they’ve reached): Tanielu: only lacking power Quintana: premium defensive position, hits for power, doesn’t strikeout too much Julks: only lacks power; plus athlete who doesn’t strikeout too much Adolph Manea: hits for power, doesn’t strikeout too much, plays catcher Papierski: catcher who doesn’t strikeout and was a bonus pool pick Taylor: Power, defense, pedigree, just strikes out way too much E Valdez C Stubbs Salazar J Perez J Ramirez Pinto J Alvarez Cueta Y Martinez Palma Liranzo Corona Tier 5: 2 major warts, but high upside: Jones McCormick Matijevic McKenna Lorenzo Tier 6: 2 major warts, and floor/risk outweigh ceiling: Wrenn De Goti Ritchie A Sierra R Rodriguez Adams Shaver Meyers Costes M Sierra Dennis Campos W Abreu Wielansky A Lee Nix Machado Guerrero Reese Carrillo Carrasco Barefoot Rivas N Rodriguez S Mendoza Y Ramirez Hurtado C Gonzalez Santander Caldera Morales Balogh Machandy T Ramirez R Toro A Ortiz Uceta Tier 7: non-prospects with 1 interesting/redeeming quality who have reached the upper levels: Ferguson Canelon De La Cruz Duarte Robinson Tier 8: non-prospects with 1 good quality who are in the lower levels: Schreiber Hensley R Castro Holderbach Biermann T Dawson Paulino Arias Pavlica G Castillo Cortabarria Krabbe Urdaneta J Mendoza Giron Mascai Jordan Marte Guilamo Grullon O Diaz Tier 9: seemingly no redeeming qualities but has somehow made it to the upper levels: Benedetti Tier 10: no redeeming qualities, lower levels: A Castillo Morillo
I have gotten all excited the last 2 springs about lower level players playing in big league games, but I’ve learned the lesson; it has almost no bearing on where they will be assigned. But obviously if a guy goes out and gets hits against big league caliber pitchers, that’s a good sign.
Probably just a data entry error, but Marty Costes is listed as a SS on the big league roster for today’s game.
Spoiler Welcome to this year’s ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball. I’ve been compiling and writing such rankings for 13 years now, and those of you who’ve read them before will find the format here similar to those from the recent past. Today kicks off the prospect package with that top 100, and it will be followed by some notes on players who just missed the list, organization rankings, farm reports covering at least 20 prospects in each team’s system, and notes on prospects who might appear in the majors this year or who might be breakout prospects for the 2021 rankings. I see as many players as I can in person each year, but these lists are the product of conversations I’ve had both this offseason and over the course of the past 12 months with individual scouts and executives from all 30 teams. I speak at length to the latter sources about their own prospects, and to the former about prospects they’ve seen over the year, comparing notes when I’ve seen the players or simply asking questions when I haven’t. I also consider the players’ performances to date, and some advanced data available via Trackman, to try to get the most accurate evaluations possible — citing the data where appropriate or useful — and to further inform the rankings. It is not a science, let alone an exact one, but I hope you’ll find it informative. I tend to favor upside in prospects more than certainty, but there is value in both. A player who is all ceiling and no floor isn’t as valuable, in the trade market now or in considering his expected value in the long term, as one who has a somewhat lower ceiling but a much higher floor. I want players who might be stars, and after that I want players who might be above-average big leaguers — but I also try to keep in mind that many of these prospects won’t reach their ceilings, and to consider what other scenarios exist for their futures. I refer to grades throughout the prospect rankings on the 20-80 scouting scale, where 50 is major-league average, 80 is the highest possible score, and 20 is the lowest. I’ll also use similar language, referring to tools that are above (a grade of 55) or below average (45 or less), or referring to plus (60) or even plus-plus (70) or doubleplusungood (a grade of 1984). I try to discuss players’ tools, their frames, their level of athleticism and other physical attributes, as well as their skills, their aptitude, and other mental or intellectual attributes as well. This is comparable to how major-league teams evaluate players, although they will always have the advantage of access to more and better data than those of us on the outside can get. The least I can do for you is try to reflect how the industry thinks about players, and give you the most accurate possible picture of the prospects in these rankings through both the lens of my own evaluations and those of the people within the industry whom I most trust. To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2020, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days on an active roster prior to Sept. 1 in the major leagues heading into this season. Thus Houston outfielder Kyle Tucker is ineligible because he has 131 at-bats in the majors, one over the threshold. I also exclude players who have come here as free agents from Japan’s NPB or Korea’s KBO, because while they are rookies (and I would vote for them if I have a Rookie of the Year ballot), they are not prospects by my definition. Finally, please bear in mind that I hate your favorite team, and that is reflected in all of the rankings. 1. Wander Franco, SS, Tampa Bay Rays 2. Jo Adell, OF, Los Angeles Angels 3. MacKenzie Gore, LHP, San Diego Padres 4. Gavin Lux, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers 5. Cristian Pache, OF, Atlanta Braves 6. Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox 7. Dustin May, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers 8. Jarred Kelenic, OF, Seattle Mariners 9. Alex Kirilloff, OF, Minnesota Twins 10. Adley Rutschman, C, Baltimore Orioles 11. Nate Pearson, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays 12. Luis Patiño, RHP, San Diego Padres 13. Daniel Lynch, LHP, Kansas City Royals 14. Forrest Whitley, RHP, Houston Astros Whitley will pitch at 22 for all of 2020, yet it seems like there are already people within the industry questioning how good he’s going to be. Some of it is unsurprising given how bad his 2019 season was; he got to Triple A and bombed, probably with help from the Happy Fun Ball, giving up four or more runs in more than half of his outings — including relief outings designed to help him right the ship — and allowing nine homers in 24 1/3 innings for a 12.21 ERA. The ball wasn’t the only problem, as he was falling behind in counts too often in Triple A. So the Astros gave him a break, tried to work on his mechanics, and had him essentially rehab in the GCL and High A before he finished with a month in Double A (where he still walked too many guys) and six starts in the Arizona Fall League (where he finally had some success, with a 2.88 ERA and 9 walks in 25 innings). His stuff was as good as ever in October, 91-97 mph with a plus cutter and plus-plus changeup as well as two breaking balls that were more average, although on other days his curveball and slider have shown plus. It’s an absurd collection of pitches, but he has to repeat his delivery better so he can throw more consistent strikes, especially early in the count. His upside is unchanged — a No. 1 starter who can give you 200 innings — and we’ll see shortly if the mechanical tweaks he’s made this winter get his delivery to where it needs to be. 15. Jazz Chisholm, SS, Miami Marlins 16. Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox 17. Ronny Mauricio, SS, New York Mets 18. Brendan McKay, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays 19. Julio Rodriguez, OF, Seattle Mariners 20. Casey Mize, RHP, Detroit Tigers 21. A.J. Puk, LHP, Oakland Athletics 22. Spencer Howard, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies 23. Dylan Carlson, OF, St. Louis Cardinals 24. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Detroit Tigers 25. CJ Abrams, SS, San Diego Padres 26. Jesús Luzardo, LHP, Oakland Athletics 27. Ian Anderson, RHP, Atlanta Braves 28. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Chicago White Sox 29. Daulton Varsho, C, Arizona Diamondbacks 30. Hunter Greene, RHP, Cincinnati Reds 31. Royce Lewis, SS/OF, Minnesota Twins 32. Matt Manning, RHP, Detroit Tigers 33. Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks 34. Edward Cabrera, RHP, Miami Marlins 35. Nolan Jones, 3B, Cleveland 36. Sean Murphy, C, Oakland Athletics 37. Leody Taveras, OF, Texas Rangers 38. Alec Bohm, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies 39. Brandon Marsh, OF, Los Angeles Angels 40. Brendan Rodgers, 2B/SS, Colorado Rockies 41. Riley Greene, OF, Detroit Tigers 42. Luis Campusano, C, San Diego Padres 43. Taylor Trammell, OF, San Diego Padres 44. Joey Bart, C, San Francisco Giants 45. Kristian Robinson, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks 46. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates 47. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Kansas City Royals 48. Francisco Alvarez, C, New York Mets 49. Sixto Sanchez, RHP, Miami Marlins 50. DL Hall, LHP, Baltimore Orioles 51. Clarke Schmidt, RHP, New York Yankees 52. Heliot Ramos, OF, San Francisco Giants 53. Vidal Brujan, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays 54. Matthew Liberatore, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals 55. Brennen Davis, OF, Chicago Cubs 56. Josh Lowe, OF, Tampa Bay Rays 57. Alek Thomas, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks 58. Marco Luciano, SS, San Francisco Giants 59. Logan Gilbert, RHP, Seattle Mariners 60. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore Orioles 61. Kyle Wright, RHP, Atlanta Braves 62. Braxton Garrett, LHP, Miami Marlins 63. Josiah Gray, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers 64. Xavier Edwards, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays 65. Bryse Wilson, RHP, Atlanta Braves 66. Shane Baz, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays 67. Deivi Garcia, RHP, New York Yankees 68. JJ Bleday, OF, Miami Marlins 69. Jordan Balazovic, RHP, Minnesota Twins 70. Jeter Downs, 2B/SS, Boston Red Sox 71. Mitch Keller, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates 72. Adrián Morejón, LHP, San Diego Padres 73. Jordan Groshans, 3B/SS, Toronto Blue Jays 74. Carter Kieboom, 2B/3B, Washington Nationals 75. William Contreras, C, Atlanta Braves 76. Alek Manoah, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays 77. Tony Gonsolin, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers 78. Nick Lodolo, LHP, Cincinnati Reds 79. Oneil Cruz, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates 80. Brailyn Marquez, LHP, Chicago Cubs 81. Brice Turang, SS, Milwaukee Brewers 82. Nolan Gorman, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals 83. Jesus Sanchez, OF, Miami Marlins 84. Travis Swaggerty, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates 85. Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers 86. Evan White, 1B, Seattle Mariners 87. Hunter Bishop, OF, San Francisco Giants 88. Ryan Rolison, LHP, Colorado Rockies 89. Orelvis Martinez, SS, Toronto Blue Jays 90. Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox 91. Diego Cartaya, C, Los Angeles Dodgers 92. Matthew Allan, RHP, New York Mets 93. Jose Israel Garcia, SS, Cincinnati Reds 94. Braden Shewmake, SS, Atlanta Braves 95. Brett Baty, 3B, New York Mets 96. Corbin Martin, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks 97. Ivan Herrera, C, St. Louis Cardinals 98. Geraldo Perdomo, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks 99. Jasson Dominguez, OF, New York Yankees 100. Quinn Priester, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
