http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/ Below is how right they were last season... Our team sucks according to them. Harden : 15.1 WAR Capela : 2.0 Ariza : 5.5 Ryan Anderson : 0.7 Beverley : 3.5 Eric Gordon : 1.1 Brewer : - 1 Montejunas : - 0.7 Nene : 1.3 Beasley : - 0.3
I am guessing the Rockets have a different projection system. Otherwise, they just spent $130M for 2 guys who are a combined 1.8 games over replacement-level (i.e. scrub) player.
Projection based on Anderson and Gordon on the Pelicans. But with a different fit and utilisation, should be different here. But I wouldnt be optimisitc in thinking we'll get to 55 wins or anywhere near there.
To be fair except for GSW, every team overspent for wins this past offseason. It comes down to matter of degree, and whether or not the player has a chance of increasing his WAR over the life of the contract, basically potential. A good number from them I like is "5-Year Market Value" I don't mind the signings so much if the player had a chance of getting better. I have a hard time seeing the two guys we signed actually improving, but you never know. Anyway, some other notables Mozgov : 0.6, 1.6 Million 5 year value Durant: 14.1, 227M Horford: 8.9, 104M Marvin Williams : 6.1, 55M
I strongly dislike the signings, mainly because in 3 years, Anderson and Gordon's contracts might be toxic either due to not being very good or injury (and taking up like 30% of our cap)... And Harden will just bounce for a better situation. I'm thinking the Rockets win 45-50 games, we can get over 50 towards 55 if we somehow turn into a top 15 defense, but that's gonna require Capela becoming a stud.
Easily the most brainless acquisition of the off-season. Easily beating overpays for players like Crabbe or Turner.
