[Graphs] Rockets take good shots, just missing them

That point regarding the defense is hilarious and obscene. Thanks for sharing this

Is there any way to get the raw data? Small sample size, but I'd like to see how the defense has performed under Mchale vs. Bickerstaff

 

Fak hemistri, long liv statistiks

 

I've thought this throughout the season. They miss open shots that they should be making. From all areas of the court.

I've watched games specifically looking to see if it was their shot selection that is causing their misses.. and it's really not. They are getting plenty of good looks but they just brick them.

 

clever way of saying rockets suck

 

The problem is through 20 games they don't look to be reversing that trend... So at what point is it no longer a "fluke"?

 

It's amazing how wide open they get just to brick every open shot.

 

By the way, how crazy is it that the Grizz are right there with us defensively? Both squads off to a confusing and disappointing start.

 

It's not just how good the shot is, but who's taking them. There's a reason Brewer and TJones get completely wide open looks all over the place. Also, I don't care what the dot on the half court map shows, a walk up hoisted three early in the shot clock by Harden is NOT a good shot. Huge difference between a set three and one that is dribbled up to, unless your name is Steph Curry.

 

This thread should remain open replacing that "walkng dead" Jeremy Lin thread. So much to chew on here thx for posting this

 

So, we are missing our 3s. That's all that chart is saying. The "Expected" part of it for us is just theoretical. Any team in the NBA could create those stats if they want to. You're stupid to try those shots if you can't make them.

Taking "Good Shots" for our expected eFG% means we rely on the extra point from a three points. Because we are certainly not getting enough easy layups this year like we did last year. We are not getting in transition like last year, and we are not getting scoring from our bench either.

 

I'm assuming the "Expected" shot % is a Big Data concept looking at the mass of NBA shots on the whole and calculating the % chance of where shots are successful. While not perfect, the indicator over time is a good one.

This tells me a couple things: with regression analysis there is a reasonable expectation that our offense will improve as we regress to the mean of the "expected" shot value.

The other thing it tells me is that our defense is terrible, but could see a slight improvement as teams regress to the mean (they are still "over" shooting against expectations).

I'd be interested in seeing a correlation chart of the offense v defense...as in if you begin hitting more of the expected shots does your defense stat improve as well because you are giving up less rebounds, fast breaks, etc by making the opponent take the ball out of bounds and begin fresh on a make.

 

Yea that would be definitely great to see. Definitely one of my main head scratchers from the start of this season up to now

 

To me, this says more about our defense than anything. It's been awful.

If we're going to give a lot of minutes to Harden and Lawson...and we are......we've got to have a rock solid front court on the defensive end. Howard, Capela and DMo can all hold their own.....we need one more guy.

 

This is the post I made about this in the other thread:
Yes it is based on shot selection (offence and defence). This in that instance was calculated by Paltnow based on the Sportvu data.
Pay attention to the defensive one in particular. Analysis has shown that % on 3pointer is much more correlated to NUMBER of 3s a team allows.Also transition offence as we all know allows the best fg%.
As you see in the sheme the Rockets allow the opponents offence to get what it wants basically. That's why we suck.
It's not because we have been "unlucky" with the opponents hitting the shots. It's because they find those shots and hit them.

Our offence on the other hand clearly demonstrates that it should be much better because our shot selection is perfect and that we can't hit the wide side of the barn.

These charts can predict a lot of times regression. So based on this the msot likely outcome is that our offence will improve drastically but our defence will remain bottom 3 in the league.

You can tweet Seth about this or Nyloncalculus. Or ask him to make the chart if he can. He often replies to people and explains questions as well for stats etc. He's one of the most helpful and insightful basketball people on tweeter in my opinion.

 

It doesn't take into account WHO takes them (if he's Curry Korver or ..well Brewer) but it definitely takes into account if the 3pointer was shot half court and if it we unguarded or not (by the distance of nearer defender).
The efg% of a shot guarded vs unguarded is different as well the efg% of a shot half court or near the 3point line even if both would count as 3pointers.

 

Crying.

 

But what does astrology have to say? We be Rockets.

 

I'm assuming we're getting "good" shots precisely because nobody expects us to make them. Seems like a pretty good assumption actually. If the team actually started making its shots, defenses would adjust to contest more of them, and our atrocious ball movement would not be able to counter that.

 

Up to a point. Teams dont' change their whole defensive sheme for a matchup in RS. We still get the most unguarded 3s in the league.
And as I said the analysis has shown that the % of 3pointers a team makes is correlated mostly on the raw number of 3s it allows.
If teams leave unguarded 3s, the data suggests that sooner or later we will make them.
That's why its regression stat. Our efg% WILL rise.

And also if the teams started guarding more of our 3s,they would stretch their defence, the paint will become less packed and we will get more good shots near the basket.