Zach Lowe on Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets

Patrick thinks this series will go to 7. 4-3 Rockets.

 

Let DD have his video conferences started again.

 

Go read the entire thing

• The Rockets have been preparing for this all season -- longer, even -- and here is what they face: a Warriors team that is 24-3 in the playoffs since signing Kevin Durant. Houston has to beat them four times in seven games. Golden State with Durant has lost three times in six playoff series.

• But these Rockets were built over the summer, and then tweaked midseason, specifically for this series. They are 50-5 when all three of James Harden, Clint Capela and Chris Paul play. By any measure, they represent the most profound challenge the Warriors have faced in the Durant-Stephen Curry era.

• Houston can surround Harden with four good defenders, and Golden State usually offers one safe-ish place to hide him. The matchups will be fun, even if they switch in a blur on every possession.

• We don't even know yet who the Warriors will start: the Death Lineup, with Draymond Green at center, or a more traditional lineup probably featuring Kevon Looney in place of Andre Iguodala. If Golden State starts small, Houston can stash Harden on Iguodala, slot Capela onto Green, Paul onto Curry, Trevor Ariza on Klay Thompson, and the immovable PJ Tucker onto Durant. Against bigger lineups, Houston could match up across positions -- with Harden on Thompson (gulp) -- or slide Harden onto Green, or even Looney. I would bet (reluctantly) on the Warriors starting Game 1 with Looney.
  
  
• That is one of the most basic swing factors: Whose blah 3-point shooters make more? Houston will leave Iguodala and Green open. Golden State will do the same with the above Rockets, though perhaps not as blatantly.

• Related: I can't wait to see how daring Houston is playing its best shooting lineups. The Rockets are impossible to guard with all three of Paul, Harden, and Eric Gordon on the floor. But Houston sacrifices a little defense to pump up its long-range shooting. Do they even dare play Gerald Green against an offense that will force him to make a half-dozen quick-hitting decisions on every possession? (Ryan Anderson has been excised precisely because he has such a hard time in this matchup. They might dust him off if they get desperate for scoring, but otherwise, I'd be surprised to see much of him.) Do they try Ariza at power forward?

• Houston is vulnerable to calculated transition rushes. The Rockets often set up their offense with a shooter in each corner, and Capela under the rim. If Harden drives and misses, the Warriors have a chance to run with four Rockets loitering way below the foul line. That is death. Against most teams, Houston's floor balance doesn't matter. Against the Warriors -- and especially the Warriors with Green at center -- it matters. One of those corner shooters is going to have to loop back toward half court earlier than usual.

• A related battleground: turnovers. Houston has coughed it up on only 9.8 percent of its possessions in the playoffs, a comically low number that would shatter the all-time single-season record. That is one benefit of slowing down and playing isolation basketball: It's hard to turn it over when you don't pass. If that number stays in the same ballpark, the Rockets increase their chances. Ditto if the Warriors suffer too many bouts of the sort of arrogant sloppiness that has occasionally undone them.

• It will be tempting for Houston to slow the pace, wait for all of Golden State's switching to produce a mismatch, and attack it. Turning the series into a rock fight might even represent its best chance. But the Rockets have to be careful taking that strategy to an extreme. Harden has a tendency to indulge in dance-offs against wing defenders who don't even constitute any sort of mismatch, and laze into step-back 3s. That has been a good shot for him -- maybe the defining shot of his (likely) MVP season. He will make some. I doubt he makes enough against Golden State's most capable defenders. Houston will not win this series if Harden falls into the trap of launching too many semi-contested step-backs. It saps Houston's offense of its rhythm. He needs to drive more -- to use his one-on-one game to either get to the rim, or unlock easier shots for teammates.

• This is another reason Capela stands as such an important player. He is by far Houston's best screen-setter. When he is on the floor, Harden is more likely to call for a pick instead of hoarding the offense. Yes, Capela clutters the paint when Harden chooses to drive one-on-one. That's OK. He and Harden have a nice chemistry making plays in tight confines around the basket. No other Rocket can duplicate Capela's rim-running and shot-blocking. He is their only source of offensive rebounding -- they have rebounded a pitiful 12 percent of their own misses in the playoffs with Capela on the bench -- and scrounging a few second-chance points is always useful against the Warriors' smaller lineups. I'm not sure Houston can win without Capela giving a solid 32-plus minutes in every game. How Capela fares against Curry on switches -- and whether Curry's knee allows for his twitchiest dribbling flurries -- is perhaps the most important bellwether.

• It will be chic to paint this series as a referendum on Paul and Harden. Nonsense. There would be no shame losing to this Golden State team. Paul has already proven his playoff bona fides. Harden has been to the Finals, further than Paul, but he is the one with more legacy points at stake -- especially after his meltdown against San Antonio last season. The Rockets cannot afford Harden falling back into bad habits and old tendencies. Too many step-backs won't cut it. Houston needs to lean more on those sets where Harden and Paul zoom up from the corners, bolt off a pindown screen, and sprint into a handoff at the top of the arc. No one has defended those. Harden should have the energy for that, and to defend at his best. That is a lot of why Houston pursued Paul -- to ease Harden's burden, and preserve energy for this moment. Houston can try to hide Harden on Iguodala, Green, Livingston, even Looney -- anyone but Thompson, Curry, and Durant. They can't bank on that, though. Houston's switching and Golden State's turbo pushes mean Harden will be on one of those guys here and there. And in Golden State's system of whirring screens and cuts, everyone is a threat. Every defender has to be on high alert. If Harden is a weak link, the Warriors will exploit him. If he fights and holds his own, the Rockets have a chance.

• Houston has home court, and the perfect tool set to stress Golden State. I just keep coming back to Golden State's experience, elite shooting, and stylistic versatility. Warriors in 6.

 

Puts this into perspective. A daunting task.

I thought this was a $hit comment. Unnecessary and the kind of thing that the NARRATIVE people would cherry pick from that ENTIRE article and use as the BASIS of their commentary. Don't feed the trolls Lowe.

 

That is his conclusion.

 

He raises a good point, and the only point that matters.

Golden State is 24-3 in the playoffs last two years, and we have to win 4.

Let's go.

Also Mike Greenberg: "I hope I'm wrong, and the good news is I almost always am."

 

He's exactly right. Many people are buying into that narrative. He didn't say he agreed. Don't see the problem with him pointing it out.

 

It is simplistic. Not worth brining up except feeding the trolls.

 

lol more than half of the teams they ve met were seriously handicapped by injuries and none were close to rockets in talent except for last year cavs

 

Hidden locker room camera catches Steve Kerr giving his pre-game speech:

 

Jokes on him. The last play in that movie was an iso play with Jimmy never passing it.

 

Lowe previewed the Rockets/Warriors series for a majority of his podcast with Coach Casey on Friday (it's really good stuff).

Of course all the breakdowns are here what Rockets need to do to beat the Warriors etc, but the most profound moment comes at the (50:00) mark: HARDEN NEEDS TO SHOW UP AND PLAY THE MOST COMPLETE GAME HE HAS EVER PLAYED (which includes defense). HARDEN HAS TO BE BETTER THAN HE HAS EVER BEEN EVERY SINGLE GAME. Harden needs to play the best defense of his life!

All the bullsh-t about match ups and ISO's and ball movement won't matter if Harden goes out and puts forth max effort on both ends. Harden is that good IMO.

MDA said it best in the last GSW game: There is no getting tired, NOT THIS GAME!

I'm not a Harden hater. I whine about Harden as much as anyone on Clutchfans, but I'm giving Harden ZERO excuses. Sickness, influenza, asthma, knicks, scrapes bruises, concussions, double teams.. ZERO EXCUSES.

Another interesting tidbit mentioned in the pod is MDA should encourage Clint to try and be a top 4 player in the series. They reference the Spurs championship run with Kawhi going up against Lebron saying that Pop told Kahwi to be as good as Lebron in that series. It worked.

 

Disagree. I Like him posting these hot takes. It keeps me surfing clutchfans and NOT YouTube and it's a big time saver!

Thanks op !

 

How many of those were played against a team with Harden - Paul and Capela?

 

This

 

Good points by Lowe, anything can happen in the playoffs, we have seen the unexpected happen before and I truly think we can beat them if we bring energy and focus every single game.

 

The fact he picks warriors in 6 sort of underscores his entire article and analysis. It's like you read pages upon pages of why this will be an interesting and somewhat evenly matched series but in the end he goes with his heart and takes the warriors to win in a dominating fashion. If he said warriors in 7 I might feel like he listened to his own analysis. To pick the warriors in 6 means you think houston will ultimately lose HC and/or lose steam early in the series. So be it. Is houston really only one game better than the pels or the spurs? I don't think so.

 

“The warriors have the 2 best players on the court.” Get the **** out of here.