Yao, Adelman, 3 pointer, efficiency

I was just thinking about our new coach and system in relation to Yao and his ability to shoot the ball. I would like to start a discussion and get opinions from the board on the effectiveness of Yao's distance shooting, do you think he has 3 point range, if so, what percentage do you speculate he can shoot from 3, and what percentage would he need to shoot from 3 to make our offense better?

Personally, I feel he can shoot it. I don't know at what clip, but I have to believe that he could hit 1 out of 3 when wide open. And I wonder if he could do better than that. If he can shoot almost 90% from the FT line, he's 7'6", I think there is the possibility that he could hit 40% out there.

What I'm wondering is how efficient he would have to be from 3 to improve our offense. Yao has a career PPS of 1.43, that would equate to roughly 45-46% from 3 to keep his PPS at the same level. But, I don't know if he has to shoot it that high to make our offense better. If the defense is packing it in, and all of a sudden we run a couple plays that result in Yao getting a wide open look from 3, and we've got another efficient scorer that can go into the blocks (Bonzi/McGrady or someone else with post up skills and a mismatch) and score efficiently, doesn't that make us more efficient as a team even if Yao only shoots say, 35% or so out there? If we could do this and get a higher percentage of shots away from Rafer and towards a more efficient scorer on the block, wouldn't that make us more efficient as a team?

Rafer took the 2nd most 3 point attempts in the league last year, simply unbelievable. And his PPS hovered around 1.06, simply terrible. Some of you are going to make the argument that he won't be taking those shots, that Mike James will, which I agree. Even if we kept Yao in the low block for every minute of every game next season, I can't help but feel that MJ is going to be eating up some significant minutes that Rafer had this last season, .........that is if Rafer is still on the team. (I think we're trying to get rid of him.) But that's not the point of this thread. The point of this thread is to focus on Yao's effectiveness and the overall effectiveness of our offense. Last year, teams would simply pack it in on Yao at different points, and he became much less effective. I believe it is at those times that his efficiency took a big dip downward and consequently, our team efficiency took a big dip downward. This year, teams are going to do the same thing. They would still much rather get the ball away from Yao in the low block and have MJ jacking as to have Yao eating them up down low. So, we're still going to have the same problem of Yao getting tripled down there.

When you look at Yao's shot chart on nba.com, you see that he took a significant percentage of shots (~35%) from the baselines up to the high post areas, FT line extended. And while he hit a decent percentage from there I happen to believe that was the least efficient shot for him to take, because of the fact that those were typically highly contested turnaround jumpers that were the result of multiple defenders pushing him away from the basket further and he was fed the basketball back on the repost and took the turnaround. The turnaround jumper from the right side of the basket, specifically along the baseline I do not mind, in fact, I like it because Yao is able to use his body to shield off the defender and get off a nice looking shot. But the turnaround from the left side of the floor, I particularly feel is ineffective, simply because he cannot use his body as a shield and he is not quick enough to jump over the defender and get that shot off uncontested. A good, athletic, long, player in the 6'7" to 6'10" can deal him fits when he is taking that shot, especially if they can move him out to 8 feet or further from the basket. He's got to fade down and away and it leaves our defense vulnerable to the break as he typically winds up on his can after taking that type shot. What's more, he's also not going to get the foul call on that shot. (The overwhelming majority of the fouls called against Yao's defender come as Yao is making the move towards the bucket, he's just not going to garner a lot of foul calls on jump shots, unless they are blatent.)

So, I particularly don't like that turnaround midrange jumper from the left knucle area. Instead of Yao taking those shots, I'd rather see us move him out high like Adelman is talking about, face him up, and let him receive the ball faced up with the option to pass or take a clean jumper over the defense. And my thought is, if he can hit the 15-17 footer so effectively, why can' he hit the 3 ball with the same effectiveness? And am I wrong in thinking that if he hit the 3 ball at 33-35% and hit that FT jumper at 60%, he is going to be a lot more effective than shooting those contested turnaround jumpers from 8-14 foot at a 47% clip? Not only that, but wouldn't moving out to the 3 point line create a ton of space for guys like James/Spanoulis to do their thing and get to the rim????

What I envision is an offense where we are able to take what the defense gives and make it work in our favor, constantly forcing the defense to make another ajustment that doesn't work either. They single Yao, throw it to Yao down low and let him torch them with his post game and and 1s. They want to pack it in on Yao, bring him out high and use cutters/creators/penetration to get guys like MJ/VSpan to the rim and kill them with high percentage finishes, dishes, and and 1s. They want to keep Yao out high and scramble the perimeter with small guys to take away our cutters and penetration? Get McGrady/Bonzi in the post up and let them make hay. Force the opponent into the bonus as early as possible, then drop Yao back into the post and let him collect and 1s and foul shots.

I'm not saying make Yao another Okur standing around at the 3 point line. What I am wondering is does he have 3 point range and what percentage he would have to shoot out there and add to our efficiency.

1. Can Yao shoot the 3?
2. If he can, what percentage does he have to make the team better than if he were taking turnaround 8-14 footers?

 

I'm not advocating Yao going away from the post. I'm advocating Yao getting out of the post when he is tripled and those percentages turn down into the 40s and he isn't getting the fouls called. We had way too many games last year where the defense would make the adjustment and shut him off. That's when his efficiency drifts downward. He's a great player, it's a tribute to him that his efficiency is as high as it is. But I think it can be higher or at least our team will be better if when defenses pack it in, we face Yao up, create space, and let another penetrator or post up player operate, taking what the defense gives and turning it into a strength as opposed to trying to force the ball to Yao, creating more turnovers, and creating lower percentage shots for not only Yao but also guys standing around the 3 point line that cannot finish, cannot draw fouls, and are marginal shooters.

What if he could nail 45% from the 3 point line??? Would that be high enough for you? What would be different about that in regards to his current efficiency? Especially if we have replaced Rafer with penetrators/finishers like James and Spanoulis that are highly effective at drawing fouls?

What I'm basically saying is when the defense forces it, we should string them out by moving Yao out high and let him take 2-3 of those shots a game along with giving James/Spanoulis a huge alley to the basket to draw some fouls and finish or giving McGrady/Bonzi the opportunity to post up a single smaller overmatched defender.


If Yao can shoot 33% from 3, that's the same thing as shooting 50% faced up from the FT line, no difference, and we already know Adelman is going to bring him out to the FT and face him up some. If he simply brought him out a little bit higher, it would create more space, have the same effect (if Yao can hit 1 out of 3 out there) and leave Yao in a position where if the defense gets the run out, he's a lot closer to the other end to get back ( ). He's not going to get offensive boards or fouls called on his jump shots regardless of whether he is faced up from 15 feet or whether he's at the 3 point line. I don't see the negative of putting out there over facing up from the FT line, unless he simply can't shoot the 3 ball.

 

Sure, borrow one of those brooms from Barkley and put a glove on the end of it?

 

Hmmm, interesting. I don't agree that a turnaround contested jumper is no different than a face up 15 footer. To defend a face up jumper, the defense is going to have to commit out on Yao, which takes a defender away from the basket. On a turnaround jumper the defender is in prime position to attack the basket on the shot. When you are faced up it is a lot easier to determine if you can get the shot off uncontested as opposed to the turnaround move, especially when you are turning around into the defender who is already riding your hip to prevent the post up. Anybody that has played basketball knows if you receive the ball faced up to the basket from 15 feet away and you can shoot the J, you can make a very good decision on whether you can get that shot off. If you are a good shooter, you can stare down the defender until you are actually in the middle of the shot before taking a look at the rim before release. It's a whole different play and much easier to execute. If the defender runs at you, you've got the pass or in Yao's case, one dribble, one step and slamola.

And using Bruce Bowen's poor FT shooting to prove a point that you cannot correlate FT shooting to 3 point shooting is a poor discorrelation in and of itself. Look at the player. Yao's shot will be the same shot, he faces up, raises up and fires. No lift, he's 7'6". It's basically a set shot off his tip toes. His 3 point shot is going to be the same thing, catch, raise up, fire, off his tiptoes. He's 7'6".

Mo WIlliams is 6 foot nothing and is shooting off the dribble most of the time. How in the world you use him as an analagy to Yao's ability to shoot the 3 ball is beyond me.

You should be drawing from players like Okur/Raef. Yao's ability to shoot the 3 ball should more closely resemble theirs than Mo Williams. Except that he is significantly bigger than either of them.

 

Not to mention if you are trying to guard Yao on the perimeter with a guard, there is either a significant mismatch somewhere else on the floor with some big trying to defend a small, or the defense has gone small and it is time to drop Yao back in the post and let him throw down a few.