That's why i said...he and Phil Jackson is night and day when it comes to being smart strategy wise and coaching wise. He ought to play Scola more since no one is generating offense. It always seem like he just know how to find a way to lose game. Stupidity is at its highest when you see it on TV.
reading these responses.. i dont think anyone noticed WHY Chuck fouled Noah. I think FOULING may have been Chuck's decision. If you watch that play again, Noah made a quick slash to the basket and caught the ball going towards the basket. Chuck at this point could have allowed him an EASY bucket or make him earn it at the line. Chuck chose to make him earn it, which i think was the RIGHT call. I dont think that fouling on the inbounds play was RA's call. Our defense was playing well enough to make the stop, but the Rockets just screwed the pooch on that one...
I never question Jeff Van Gundy when it comes to substitution and strategy wise because he just know who to put in the lineup to maximize the potential and he does it based on the game situation. But as far as Rick Adelman, he sucks at it. His substitution pattern is always in question and his strategy as far as taking advantage of opponents is just not there. Sure he's better than Jeff Van Gundy in terms of offensive play calling and being more creative and so forth..but I rather have JVG than Adelman. I don't remember i question JVG as far as who he should play or who he should put in the game under certain circumstances. We only question his lack of offensive sets but he was perfecto as far as strategy and substitition...not like Adelman.
It just shows Adelman has no confidence with their defense or he had a brain freeze. However, they did foul a guy that was missing free throws. The refs also took precious seconds away by not calling the intentional fouls rt away esp. the last play by Lee. That said, Rockets lost this one because of too many turnovers.
Chicago scored at a 48.6% clip the whole game. I know it is naive to take that at face value. Especially since Rose caught fire in the fourth. But that is just a point of reference. Joakim Noah is a 77.2% FT shooter this season. For his career he is 71.2%. For a chance to tie we needed him to miss both freethrows, since even if he made one it would have been a 2 possession game. The odds of a 71.2% FT shooter missing both FTs is 8.29%. (0.288^2) I would say it is oversimplification to say the Bulls had a 48.6% shot of scoring, but certainly it wasn't the 91.61% chance that Noah would make at least make one free throw. The other suggestion that it was to "extend the game" doesn't really make sense either. We had 2 timeouts so there was 2 chances to foul, hope for a miss, and score. Assuming we score 2 points 100% of the time after each foul(which is unrealistic but just for arguments sake), we still need them to miss 1 FT on each trip, just to be back to square one and be down 3 with a chance to tie. The odds of Noah(71.2FT%) missing at least 1 FT is 48.7%. (1-0.712^2) Assuming we foul Rose on the next trip(which we did), the odds of him(77.5FT%) missing at least 1 FT is 40.0%. (1-0.775^2) The odds of both these events happening simultaneous, which is what was needed for us to have a chance to tie, is 19.5%. So the conclusion is unless you feel we have less than a 19.5% chance of getting a stop on them, it would have been better to just play straight up and rely on your defense. And yes I know you can never put an exact number on these things, but this is just to put things in perspective. The bottom line is, the odds of success after fouling is extremely low. No where near worth it when you could just play some defense even if they are likely to score. Winning games in the NBA is hard enough as it is. No need to sabotage yourself with stupidity.
I don't think it's as cut and dry as that. It's hard to take into account the human element (nerves, fatigue) when doing those calculations. Who would've guessed Lee would have missed both free throws in the San Antonio game? Weird **** happens all the time in sports.
I think I acknowledged that it was not as cut and dry as that. But it still puts things into perspective. The odds were better to just play some D. WAY better. EDIT: And to your point about Lee. He is a career 85.6% FT shooter. So there is a 2.1% chance that at any given time he misses both FTs. Weird **** didn't happen. 2.1% happened.
They weren't going to foul...but I think once Noah got the ball on the inbounds, they got the go-ahead to foul since he isn't a notable free throw shooter. Either way, we messed up.
Except that Scola played 37 minutes and had 4 fouls early in the third. He was in foul trouble. Seriously though, do some of you even watch these games?
Part II Ironically once again against the Bulls. 1. Needing just FTs to seal the win, we fail to put our best FT shooter in the game. 2. Leading 3 with time running out, with the Bulls out of timeouts, all we had to do is foul to seal the win. I understand that not a lot of coaches like to employ this strategy, so some may not want to put this one on Rick. Just because most coaches are too stubborn to do it, that does not mean Rick is right when following suit. Rick Adelman has his strengths along with his flaws. He is more of a laissez-faire kind of coach that excels in managing the big picture. He is also good at playing to his personnel's strengths. On the other hand, he is horrible at in game adjustments, and more importantly, mirco-management. When so many games are decided by a possession or two, micro-management: like the two pointed out above, could mean the difference between a W and a L. Maybe this could have gone in the post game thread, but issues like tonight are becoming a trend. On a night where we played well enough to win, a win that could well have turned the whole season around, it is again wasted by a few minor details that could have made the difference. I am in no way advocating a coaching change, mainly because there are no replacements that would be better. But it does beg the question, if we aspire to becoming a championship contending team down the line, will Rick Adelman's lack of micro-management hold us back? He has had championship caliber talent before, only to come up just short. Short enough where a few tweaks by a more creative/attentive coach could have overcame?
I just did not understand why they did not foul DRose on the floor before the last second shot at the end of regulation? They were down 3, FOUL HIM on the floor.....Rudy T did that all the time... I never understand coaches that don't do that.....it is just stupid, IMO. DD
The thing about it that puzzles me is that when people criticize Adelman for not being a micro-manager, I think of Phil, who is not a micro-manager by any stretch of the definition, but obviously has a couple of rings. Adelman was okay. I don't blame him for not putting in Martin, as it's not like Martin necessarily would have been the one getting fouled, you do need to play defense, and you have to go with the guys who brought you back in the game. And the fouling strategy is risky, because if Rose realizes it, he fires up a shot, gets three free throws, and that's a problem too. Really, the one person I would blame for this loss would be Budinger. This cannot, I repeat, cannot continue. At all.
Yup. You got it. Rick is in love with Brad Miller, and that's why Miller took that last shot. Is it really a good idea to give a 35yo backup center the last 3ptr shot? Noooo. But Rick loves Brad. Not good.
Not fouling was the 1st big mistake. And then why in gods name was Brad Miller doubling Noah on the pick and roll, only to give Rose a wide open 3??? Did Adelman not drill into their heads to not allow a three? We played hard all night, but we also have to play smart. That was just dumb. And a mental mistake like that is on the coach, because it is his job to let everyone know how he wants to defend that last possession. NO THREES. I am not saying I want JVG back, but it is on this type of stuff that a detail-oriented coach like him excels. Ideally it should be the assistant coach's job, as I am sure Thibodeau did for the Celtics.
