To answer your question about the stats for last season: Our opponents averaged 100.3 pts/100 possesions with Ariza on the floor and 102 pts/100 possessions with Ariza off the floor. Opponents fg% was 44.2 with Ariza on the floor and 44.4 with Ariza off the floor. Opponents 3pt% was 31.9% with Ariza on the floor and 32.8% with Ariza off the floor. So basically, last season we were positive in all three categories when Ariza was on the floor. This year we are negative in all three categories. EDIT: As I fully expect someone to reply and say that Ariza's poor number are due to the fact that he's on the floor with Harden for most of his minutes: Rockets opponents score 105.7 pts/100 possessions when Harden is on the floor and 106.1 pts/100 possession when Harden is off the floor. You'll notice that opponents are scoring more points (+1.3) pts/100 possessions when Ariza is on the floor than they do when Harden is on the floor. The other interesting item is that our opponents actually score more points per 100 possessions with Harden off the floor than they do when Harden is on the floor.
It's hard to tell, especially on defense where there isn't great public data out there. But according to plus/minus metrics Ariza is only slightly worse than last year. What's weird is that those numbers say he's better on offense than defense this year. Whereas last year obviously it was flipped. His offensive numbers are pretty much the same as last year (notable higher 3pt% though) and I'm not inclined to believe that he's suddenly become a bad defender, instead it's team-wide issues. In sum, I think Ariza is still Ariza.
No under any circumstance Ariza is part of a winning championshop team. He is the second guy after Harden on this team.
His offense for me is still incredibly hit and miss. Fits the definition of a 3 and D player if you discount the fact that he can't consistently score.
as posted before, from the eyeball test it definitely looks like his man has been getting into the lane a lot more often this season. in any case, i hate him in transition. i've never seen so many 2on1's and 3on1's get F'd up because this guy can't dribble/pass/think on the break. and in halfcourt i really think the offense would open up again with another competent wing in the lineup (remember how much easier it was getting buckets with parsons?) who can put the ball on the floor and finish at the rim. it's too bad KJ can't shoot or stop traveling, otherwise he'd be decent next to james. it's too bad beasley can't lockdown wings too. it's too bad brewer can't shoot, guard wings, or dribble -- errr, nevermind
It depends on what Ariza's issue has been on defense this season and on who you'd replace him with. If he's lost a step then that's a problem. If he's had an injury that we don't know about then it could be as simple as letting him get healthy. Guys are blowing by him this year which they didn't do in previous years. I've said it in multiple threads, but the guys that we depend on to be defensive specialists haven't been good this season. Because of that we are playing way too many players that are average to below average on both sides of the ball. Best case we bring in guys that are plus players on both offense and on defense, but that's easier said than done. Alternately, we can get guys that are plus players on only one side of the ball but we can't continue to play this many players that aren't above average on either side of the ball. A big man that could pass would be helpful. Right now once the ball goes to any of our bigs, they can't really create much for teammates. Many posters want us to pass the ball like GS or SA but that's difficult when you don't have multiple players who are good passers. Compare the offensive players on our team other than Harden with their counterparts on other teams and you'll see that we are at a big disadvantage. Defensively we don't have an elite defensive player or even a very good one for that fact. Most of the contenders have 1 or 2 all-defensive team level guys. Ariza, Dwight and Beverley are all stronger on defense but none of them have been good defensively this season. I can't even decide if Brewer's strength is offense or defense. That in itself is very telling.
Yeah offensively he's not going to create, he never has. Blows a lot of layups. Just ugly when he shoots off the dribble. Defensively I'm just not sure. Maybe he lost at step at 30. Or maybe the team defense is just so screwed up with all the botched switching that they are blowing by him when he's out of position. Either way we should probably trade him. We're not contending next year so we should try to get something in return for him.
No one is untouchable. Harden, Ariza, Dmo, Brewer... all should be on the list of assets if it makes this team better. If Ariza nabs us someone better then so be it. We'll grow to love someone else. I love the way Ariza has played the past two seasons for us. He has been nothing but great. However if he needs to be used as a filler for a guy like Anthony Davis , Durant or anything that'll help this team then so be it.
Maybe Ariza needs DMo the X-Factor to be effective on defense. :grin: Possible reasons for his slip in defensive numbers: 1. Age. He simply has lost a step. 2. Team/Morale. The whole team sucks on defense. It takes away the motivation to play hard. 3. Chemistry. The communication on the court just broke down. (Maybe the DMo comment above was not that much of a joke.) 4. System. Did they change the defensive system this season? Maybe it's just not a good system for Ariza. 5. Wrong stats. Maybe those stats are just not reliable measures for how well an individual plays defense. (Eye test seems to agree with the numbers, though not conclusive IMO.) It could be a combination of more than one thing.
A higher percentage of our possessions result in points when James is on the floor, giving our team time to set up more often.
I think what we have is a redundancy between Ariza and Bev, and we need someone who can score at that position. Personally, even though he shoots better, I rather have Beverley gone in favor of keeping Ariza. However, Ariza has lost a step defensively and I don't know if that's due to not wanting to play hard since no one else does (which he still plays hard, a true professional) or because he actually isn't that top tier defensively anymore.
Bringing the truth, as always. Hell yes, trade him for anything of value. He might be done. Or by all means, trade Harden. HA HA HA HA HA .
i don't think it's because he's lost a step. he's out of position way to often now. a lot about staying in front of your guy is simply using good footwork to cut off the angles, and ariza just goes for the steal a lot now instead of staying home. and as far as contesting jumpshots, he's not evening putting a hand up a lot of times. bev has been guilty of the same. so i don't know what's gotten into our guys' heads, but i'm relatively certain this is not physical-related. guys like bruce bowen and battier were still able to lockdown well into their 30's, and they were a lot less athletic than ariza. we had 38yr old charles jones on our '95 playoff squad solely as a defensive stopper, and he was effective in frustrating much quicker guys like mvp robinson.
Nice idea, would love it if it happened, but generally teams drafting in the 4-7 range don't have the current need a Trevor Ariza. I know we once traded a nice pick for Battier but that was an anomaly.
I think the Pelicans with Anthony Davis could really use a guy like Trevor to get that back into the playoff mix...
If you're going to start a 3&D point guard like Beverley then Ariza has to be replaced by a playmaking 3 that can handle and dish, something Ariza just can't do. Championship teams have at least 2 playmakers from the perimeter playing substantial minutes together. So one of Bev/Ariza needs to be replaced in the starting line-up. My preference would be to replace Beverley. A playmaking 1 is easier to acquire than a playmaking 3.
