Will Harden break the record for turnovers? [2016-2017]

I wouldn't really use on/off all the time because that doesn't control for teammates. We know Gordon has come off the bench and played very well. Kawhi Leonard actually has only a +1.1 on/off but has a very high rpm.

I would rather look at RAPM but unfortunately no one posts it anymore.

 

UPDATE: Important role players regressing both offensively and defensively in January. It's almost like...their performance is greatly important to our success as a team given the makeup of the roster.

*GASP*

Actually....nevermind. I take it back. Harden's 1 extra turnover per game in January is probably the main issue.

 

I am pretty sure a +4.2 rating doesn't lose us games.

 

EGo's on/off is only +3.7, so it's not like he's massively distorting Harden's numbers either.

Nylon Calculus did publish mid-season PT-PM and Harden is 10th in the league, but Pat and Ariza are not far behind.

http://fansided.com/2017/01/11/nylon-calculus-pt-pm-halfway-nba-season/

It just seems to me that the reason for our team success is more evenly distributed than many people think. It's not just because of Harden, although he has been solid overall this season. Still doesn't make him immune from criticisms, and Harden is not the only reason we were winning up to this point.

 

I agree with this. Many guys on the team are playing very well.

 

Good post. Harden is very smart, deceptively smart, and smart at deception. Got that?

Just as he uses deception on the court to fool defenders into fouling him or lunging way out of position, so does he use deception with fans and basketball people on the stat sheet. Harden cannot average double digit assists without taking all those risks that lead to the silly turnovers. If he quit taking the risks he's taking to get 11.5 assists, he'd average about 8.5 to 9 assists with about 4 turnovers. That would actually be a better stat line. But it's simply not spectacular enough. He's got to get those double digit assists.

James and Russell will never win a championship playing this way. We might as well shell down the corn here. Russ is directly responsible for Durant leaving OKC with his out-of-control ball-hogging style and Harden is directly responsible for us not having a co-star to play alongside him because he, just like Russ, does not want to share the court with another playmaker who demands the ball.

Below is a list of all players who have averaged double digit assists in the 3-point era, arranged by turnovers per 100 possessions. Harden leads everybody. The player with the highest TOV/xPoss to win a championship was Magic Johnson in 84-85. And he played on a team that played at a much faster pace than even we do. Hardens TOV/xPoss ratio is 53% higher than Magic's. In short for you guys that don't understand the power of this number........it's terrible!

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&type=advanced&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&year_min=1980&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&forceos_is=1&c1stat=gs&c1comp=gt&c1val=20&c2stat=mp&c2comp=gt&c2val=500&c3stat=ast_per_g&c3comp=gt&c3val=10&c6mult=1.0&order_by=tov_per_poss

If Harden weren't such an efficient scorer, if he were just an average efficiency scorer, he'd be benched as a point guard because he turns the ball over way too much.

Oh, but Harden is a great, efficient scorer, you insist, and that's why his turnovers don't matter.

Ok, so here's the list of players who have averaged over 25 or more points per game in the three-point era, once again arranged by TOV/xPoss. Once again, Harden rules the roost. First player down on this list to win a championship, Wade in '06. His TOV/xPoss was 4.9. Harden is 59% WORSE!

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=per_game&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&year_min=1980&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&forceos_is=1&c1stat=pts_per_g&c1comp=gt&c1val=25&c2stat=ast_per_g&c2comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&order_by=tov_per_poss


Oh, but Harden is different, you say. He's both the main scorer and distributor. He does both! Thus, his turnovers don't matter.

Below is a list of all players in the three point era who have averaged 25 or more points and 7 or more assists per game arranged once again by TOV/xPoss. Once again, James the Great on top. The only player on this list to win a championship is 12-13 Lebron. LeBron's TOV/xPoss that season was, ummmmmn, 4.2. Harden is 86% worse.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=per_game&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&year_min=1980&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&forceos_is=1&c1stat=pts_per_g&c1comp=gt&c1val=25&c2stat=ast_per_g&c2comp=gt&c2val=7&c6mult=1.0&order_by=tov_per_poss


Look, for Harden to justify 6 turnovers a game and 7.8 turnovers per 100 possessions, and be considered a championship-level distributor, he's got to be putting up about 15 assists a game! Otherwise he's got to lower his turnovers to have any chance of winning a championship.

So, you finally say, well we're not winning a championship this season anyways. And to that I say if we're not here to talk about winning championships then what are we here for? Do you really think James and MDA aren't going for a championship this year? Do you think they're just playing for coach of the year and MVP? Do you think they believe they can't win a championship this year? Of course not! They think they're going to defy the odds! They're all-in just like the Thunder are all-in on Westbrook averaging a triple double. They're fooling themselves into believing they can win it all. Harden thinks he can carry us.

But he can't. Not in today's league with the Warriors, Spurs, and LeBron's team. The difference between Harden and those guys is realistic expectations. Hardens head is too big. As great a player as he is, he thinks he can win this thing all by himself with a bunch of role players. And that's on him. That's is his Achilles. The whole franchise has bent, twisted, and torqued to Harden's every whim. We've got his coach and the roster is made up of players he wanted and recruited. This is his team, his guys, his system, his coach, and his organization.

Unless and until Harden realizes he can't win by doing it all his way then we will not win a championship and he's in danger of being the ultimate also-ran replacing Bibby, Webber, Stockton, and Malone (and McGrady) in that category.

 

Eh.... I remember last year, hoping we would have it click into place. We waited for that all year. Harden has responded. We aren't "there" but we aren't far away either. We are certainly closer than any of us thought we would be. I believe that this team is equipt to go into the playoffs and reign it in a bit. I believe we will rise up when the game slows down. This on the heals of a Feb roster adjustment.

We have made an error in being too reliant on Harden. Bringing in more talent is key. Doesn't have to be talent that dominates the ball. I personally what JH to continue pretty much exactly what he is doing. The idea that Harden is holding this organization back is insane. Just as the idea of Mitt Romney ever winning was insane. TOs suck but we are a special team. He is the #1 reason.

 

Wow this is embarrassing.

 

fify

 

Of course ESPN would report this.

Media conspiracy/

 

Season is not over, yet. There is still hope Westbrook catches him. WB is only 25 TOs behind.

So, the MVP will either be someone who surpassed the previous TO record, or someone who set the record for fewest assists by a non-center MVP (Kawhi). Kawhi also has fewest assists by *any* MVP in 34 years (Moses). (I'm not counting Robinson in '95, because we all know that MVP was Hakeem's and he had more assists.) ok, fewest by any MVP in 22 yrs

deserves its own thread?

 

Have a read
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/j...-turnover-record-and-it-doesnt-matter-at-all/

 

Also found this amusing, look at Harden's turnovers by bad passing......lowest in 5 years

 

I read they changed the definition

 

He just needed 2 more tonite for a quadruple double ......... sigh
Jokes aside, wonder if he already broke the record ........

 

Seems like if our hackers could just add +1 turnover to the Westbrook data each game we'll win this war.

 

Will finalize once the season is over, but thought I'd put this up for now.