i cant believe a rockets fans would say there's no difference between the 12 and 14, since we've been burned in the past not once, but a few times, but a team picking right before us. There is a difference. Its not likely to be the difference between an all-star and a bust, but it may be the difference between the "sure things" and the not so sure. Those picks are around the point where it gets tricky figuring out who to pick. I rather get a sure pick than having to guess on a player...
rubio will probably be just another rudy fernandez tall, skinny and quick gaurd who shoots 3s and can slash to basket but cannot get a strating role on a team!!!
Pretty different players but don't want to kill the thread with Rubio talk...we can continue this in the Rubio/Navarro vs Llull thread. :grin:
Very very good post. Its all about draft position. I could completely care less if the rockets lose the rest of these POINTLESS games this season. I would rather have the 11th pick over the 14th pick any day of the week. This season is over. You play the rookies to nauseum and build for next season.
There is no such thing as a sure thing in an NBA draft. Especially after the top 5. How do you know we would not have drafted the same person 2 slots up back when we were getting burned in drafts? CD did alot for the Rockets, great drafting was not one of them. Meanwhile, Morey has been brilliant for us. Morey does not have to "guess on players." He uses statistical analysis and great scouting to determine who to take. Every pick he has ever made has panned out except for Joey Dorsey (as somebody mentioned above). Look at Aaron Brooks, Carl Landry, Chase Budinger, hell Jermaine Taylor. We even drafted Nicolas Batum and Rudy Gay. In a deep draft, the difference between 12th and 14th should not be that great.
greg oden was a number one pick, jordan hill was a number 8th pick, they both were considered busts by their draft teams
Dumb comment. There is no "exponential decay", as the draft picks get lower. If only the draft was that way, then the Pritch-slap of Brandon Roy wouldn't be so bad. The draft isn't a video game, where you get a player that has 95 player rating instead of 97 player rating. Each draft has a limited selection of impact players that can be stars. In rare occasions, a draft may not have any star players. Folks like to point to 2nd round gems like Ginobili, but it's even worse here. There can be several years with no star players at all in the 2nd round. If every projected star on your draft board is gone, you are out of luck. Your stars could be available 14th, but it could be available 12th. If the 12th or 13th guy chooses him or trades him, you miss out completely. Picking lower also hurts your trade ups. Sometimes another team(Minnesota) will trade down 2 spots, if they their draft projections have the in-between team(Portland) not drafting their target (Randy Foye). They would trade down 2 spots lower contingent on their target player still being available. So the Rockets at 12 could set up a deal to leapfrog the 11th team, if the Rockets believe that the 11th team will take their star player. It only works if the 10th team can still get their target player and something extra, like your 2nd round pick or extra cash. Trading from the position of 14th spot is much harder. A team drafting 10th has to risk 3 teams not choosing their pick, instead of only 1 player. The risk is not worth it for an extra 2nd pick and cash.
i agree with you, nothing in the draft is certain, morey is very good at drafting players with some potential, especially late in the 1st round and in the 2nd round, lokk at brooks, landry, rudy gay, and chase buddinger and jermaine taylor, all these players have scored at least 13 points in an nba game
The Rockets had a deal in place for Roy, contingent on Randy Foye being available at the 8th spot. Portland got word somehow and drafted Foye to block the Rockets and take Roy. I know the Rockets would have drafted the person 2 spots up, because Clutch was there. http://www.clutchfans.net/news/1468/trade_up_options_could_exist_for_rockets/ Tradiing up is dependent on the in-between teams not choosing the higher drafting team's pick. The lower you are, the harder it gets. You add 3 teams between you and the trading partner, instead of 1.
The real fan wants a championship and getting a higher pick brings you closer to that. Playing Scola 51 minutes tonight is rediculous.
I remember reading that. I thought he was talking about the CD days. I was hoping and praying we got Roy. Used to watch alot of P10 bball back when I lived in the West coast and he was always one of my favs. But it just did not pan out. I'm still happy with Battier. He has been nothing but class and production for this squad (tho it does not show in the #s. The coaching staffs he has had would probably agree).
at least Morey is able to convert him into one of the assets for Martin while Dorsey value was quiet rising.
I'm gonna go out on a limb here, because I don't for sure know the answer to this question. Since the Rockets last championship; outside of Kobe, has a player drafted higher than the Rockets 1st round pick that year won a championship?
If Kobe is still left then, which happens one out of 100 times, maybe. The point is which one does less harm and more good? Tanking or kicking. We can use math people on this board to calc the drop off from 12th to 14th. But OTOH, in some people's mind, winning attitude and tenacity such as making a buzz-beater is priceless. So it's hard to say. But yeah, definitely I am more in tune with winning than tanking at this point, as opposed to, say, a choice between the 6th or 8th pick.
I'm so pissed at Morey for drafting Dorsey. He presents the D-league's version of Iverson's hate for practice.
