Why is everyone against upgrading at PG (in the near future)?

AdrenaLINe · Dec 2, 2012

w00t said: ↑

"Why is everyone against upgrading at PG"

For the same reason why you can't make a poll's with Lin anymore... These forums are flooded with Lin's "fangirls"
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well if were going to talk girly.... you are a guy jealous of another guy

cytrynowa · Dec 2, 2012

Well, this thread was interesting for a while... now back to the same old crap.

Sherlockfever · Dec 2, 2012

w00t said: ↑

"Why is everyone against upgrading at PG"

For the same reason why you can't make a poll's with Lin anymore... These forums are flooded with Lin's "fangirls"
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lol, you can't blame Lin for his charisma to attract fans, nor can you blame fans for being attracted to Lin. I didnt' become his fan overnight, and it's definitely beyond his ethnicity. I'm a good fan with sound judgement, give me credit:grin:

Allegro · Dec 3, 2012

torocan said: ↑

Actually, the problem isn't that AST% is not a perfect stat (not stat is), the problem with AST% is that it's a fundamentally flawed and misleading statistic.

Notice that within the formula it is a derivative of total Team assisted goals, in other words percentage of total assisted team buckets throughout a game. The problem with this is it inherently misrepresents assist efficiency as it's a gross volume stat.

What I mean by gross volume stat is this. Let's assume a hypothetical.

If Harden is the primary ball handler and handles the PG duties 3x as much as Lin, even if Lin is 2x more efficient, Harden will still have a 50% higher AST% as Lin. In other words, like PPG, it does NOT take into account efficiency in terms of the performance of those duties.

Now, when I talk about Lin as a facilitator, I'm specifically seperating that from his overall efficiency as a "playmaker", which you defined as being able to generate a shot for oneself AND team mates.

Harden is one of the most efficient "playmakers" in the game. This is because his ability to translate a possession into either a Shot OR an Assist that results in points is very high.

However... that does not necessarily mean that Harden should be the primary ball handler. There are multiple reasons for this, one of which is that his efficiency drops off dramatically when he is forced to play the PG AND Shooting guard roles simultaneously. It's just WAY too easy for teams to key in, double team/shadow and pack the paint (ala OKC or Miami).

When I talk about Facilitation, I actually try to look at more granular statistics (ones that attempt to isolate passing efficiency).

Now, there is no single stat that can paint an accurate picture, but when you take a look at a broad range of statistics that look at aspects of passing and they point in the same direction, I don't think you can fully discount their accuracy.

So, let's look at some...

Lin vs Harden

AST/40 - 7.2/5.2
AST+/40 - 8.3/6.1

Assist Rate - 29.36%/16.15%
Assist/TO - 2.08/1.21
Assist/Bad Pass - 5.6/2.9

%age Dunk Assists - 22.78%/17.18%
%age Close Assists - 30.37%/20.31%
%age 3pt Assists - 29.11%/37.5%
%age Jumpshot Assists - 17.72%/25.0%

%age Jumpshot+3pt Assists - 46.83%/62.5%
%age Dunk + Close Assists - 53.15%/37.5%

Offensive Fouls - 3/7
Bad Passes - 14/22
Ball Handling Turnovers 21/24

%age of TO's from passes - 36.8%/41.5%

Notice that even after isolating Harden's playmaking (looking exclusively at passes attempted), every stat category favors Lin in terms of passing. Not just the number of successful passes leading to points scored, but the Quality of those passes, as well as the number of turnovers as a ratio compared to general assists.

Even if you completely exclude Harden's general ball handling TO's and adjust for passes attempted, the percentage of passes he attempts that result in TO's is higher than Lin's.

Now, whether that's due to Harden being double teamed more (as the primary offensive threat and PG simultaneously), or simply due to him being an inferior general passer (debatable), what is indisputable is the shots that result from his Facilitating is simply inferior.

Lin produces higher quality shots for his team mates, which statistically will always result in higher point production when viewed purely in terms of facilitation. In other words, Lin makes his team mates better MORE than Harden makes his team mates better.

That doesn't mean that Harden is NOT the less efficient playmaker. That actually can't be determined from passing stats exclusively. What it does mean is that Lin elevates those around him more, and that would include elevating Harden's shooting due to the quality of looks.

Does this mean Harden shouldn't be the primary "playmaker"? Not necessarily. However, I still maintain that it makes sense in terms of clock usage for Lin to *initially* generate shooting opportunities, but for those playmaking opportunities to work their way to Harden more often than to other players on the team in general.

In more broad strategic terms, it's also good strategy to start the ball AWAY from Harden more often. Not only does this give opposing defenses more different offensive looks to deal with, this gives Harden more room to operate off the ball, and more importantly to work with cutters and screens to give him open space opportunities to either isolate a defender, or to initiate a Pick and Roll without being under immediate double team pressure.

Anyway, just some more stuff to think about.
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I just noticed your post. It's fantastic.

I can't rep you now (dumb site says I have to spread some reputation around first). Quoting you is the next best thing.

jocar · Dec 3, 2012

TC777JLIN168 said: ↑

Yes! And I hope when that happens Lin will go to LAL that will solve my dilemma. In two years, Kobe will likely retire or as he has said, pass the team to DW12. Nash also has only a 2 year deal. They will need a good pg that can run D'Antoni's system (MD signed a 4 year deal).

Honestly, I was and still am shocked to see how blind the hate is for Lin in Rockets fan base. Witnessing the Linsanity last season was the best thing that has happened to this old basketball fan in many years. You guys are so quick to throw him out, post knee injury and playing in a new team, a new coaching system with a new superstar teammate notwithstanding. I wanted to like the Rockets; in fact, I've become quite infatuated with this team. But the fan base with all their fangs is what's turning me off. For the sake of the players, I hope the team will do well this season. But they don't deserve such a fan base.
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Are you dissing the entire Rockets fan base because of probably 50 at the most (out of 45,000 CF members) of "Lin hater" posters? --half of who became "fans" in 2012.

This, and your recurring wet dream posts of Lin going to your beloved Lakers are getting tired. If you're so turned off, stop posting here. Another fanatical tard for the i-list!

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Why is everyone against upgrading at PG (in the near future)?

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