It essentially all hinges on what Dwight decides to do and whether he will take less for a longer deal. If he takes somewhere south of $23M in starting salary, all the Rockets would have to do is release Lawson and hope he doesn't get claimed, trade Brewer for no salary back (very easy with all the cap space that will be out there), and renounce Terrance Jones or DMo. Do that and they have the max for Durant and could offer Lawson the room exception. That is a huuuuuuuge paycut for Lawson, but if he turns his career and life around in Houston and can bring in Durant for a super team, it may be worth it. Plus, they would be able to sign him to a bigger money deal in 2017. Obviously it all hinges on the superstars, but a 2016 Durant Rockets team could (somewhat) easily be: PG: Beverly, Lawson SG: Harden, McDaniels SF: Durant, Ariza, Dekker PF: DMo, Harrell, Dekker C: Howard, Capela And the Rockets would still have all of their picks, except for the 2016 1st going to Denver. Plus, could probably pick up something decent back for Brewer.
It essentially all hinges on what Dwight decides to do and whether he will take less for a longer deal. If he takes just south of $20M in starting salary, all the Rockets would have to do is release Lawson and hope he doesn't get claimed, trade Brewer for no salary back (very easy with all the cap space that will be out there), and renounce Terrance Jones or DMo. Do that and they have the max for Durant and could offer Lawson the room exception. That is a huuuuuuuge paycut for Lawson, but if he turns his career and life around in Houston and can bring in Durant for a super team, it may be worth it. Plus, they would be able to sign him to a bigger money deal in 2017. Obviously it all hinges on the superstars, but a 2016 Durant Rockets team could (somewhat) easily be: PG: Beverly, Lawson SG: Harden, McDaniels SF: Durant, Ariza, Dekker PF: DMo, Harrell, Dekker C: Howard, Capela And the Rockets would still have all of their picks, except for the 2016 1st going to Denver. Plus, could probably pick up something decent back for Brewer.
I can't see lawson getting waived and not getting claimed or having his last year not guaranteed and not getting a sizable contract from another team with cap space. As you said there will be a TON of money out there next year and his salary is a steal even if he's not 100%. If he doesn't get picked up off waviers or contract multiple times better than a room excretion in a scenario like that he must have imploded to tank his value that bad.
I agree he's not top 10 but he's def. top 20 all time right now. He's slowed down since the back surgery but he was a monster for his first 7 years in Orlando and he's still the best center in the game right now IMO, He plays winning basketball. Untill boogie cousins can take his game to the playoffs he's just a guy who gets empty stats. Dwight is still good for 17/12/2 with elite defense those guys just don't exists in the NBA anymore.
I believe that Lawson's contract becomes guaranteed for the 2016-17 season in late June. If we were to cut him, it would be around this time (still part of the 2015-16 season), meaning that the only teams who could pick him up would be those with $13 million in cap space in 2015-16.
That's true, there might be few teams that could pick him up, but if he's worth his contract and then some I can't see those teams not picking him up. What would else would they spend cap space on? It wouldn't be like they'd take themselves out of the FA next market. Even more cap space open up in just a few days when the next season takes effect. But say he does clear waivers. Why would he settle for a room exception when he would certainly get maxed out given the sheer amount of cap space money out there and a low supply of players? Playing for a contender might be one thing but no way any player leaves that much money on the table even with some loose agreement to get paid even more the next year if he took the RE. There are no guarantees in such a deal and he'd be taking a huge risk to do that.
Durant will not join us with Dwight here. Dwight opting out would be your only hope. I personally hope he does, just because I don't trust his body to hold up, he's thus not worth the max (other teams will pay max though) and his relationship with Harden. KD and Harden are tight, so that's one plus. A line-up of: Lawson, Harden, Durant, TJ & Capela good enough? With back-ups like Beverley, Ariza / Brewer, KJ and D-Mo? I don't know..
Money wise...where did I say he doesn't like him. You sure are looking for things, just like in the other thread. Maybe looking to quote ttfor3? Anyway, nobody should realistically expect us to get KD with Dwight here, he's not going to take a massive paycut.
Cant see Lawson doing that. But if you get Durant you don't need Lawson at all. We wouldn't even remember his name.
Let's just see if Durant can stay on the court this year. foot fractures are a motherscratcher, especially for basketball guys. I'm sort of surprised I'm the 1st in here, 10 days after the news broke (no pun intended), to bring up how Durant recently revealed a previously undisclosed 2nd break in his foot. So he breaks his foot Surgery #1 Break #1 isn't healing right, Surgery #2 to replace screw. Then Surgery #3 for a 2nd break he kept from everyone until 10 days ago. And we are Rockets fans who should still remember the sting & tragedy of Yao. I used to say I would give up the whole farm for KD. The whole damn farm. Been saying it since he was wearing an orange jersey. But now I do.not.want. At least not until you see if he can stay on the court. I hope he can because he is greatness. Stay on the court KD, and then lose to us!
Just from a cursory glance, the only teams who would be able to pick up Lawson's whole 2015 salary are Portland and Philly. With Lillard already in the fold and both teams in rebuilding mode, I'm not too sure they would pick up Lawson's salary (and the potential headaches that he could bring to a young team). Now, all of this is for naught if Lawson is unwilling to sign for the room exception. But he was already willing to bet on himself and make his 2016 salary non-guaranteed. If Durant indicates through back channels that he is willing to come to Houston, maybe the appeal of being on a historically great team and getting PAID in 2017 is enough to convince Lawson to sacrifice $ for one year. Obviously this is all a fairy-tale scenario, but it is fun to think about. Just look at this line-up: PG: Beverly, Lawson SG: Harden, McDaniels SF: Durant, Ariza, Dekker PF: DMo, Harrell, Dekker C: Howard, Capela
It will be draft day when it becomes guaranteed, so as of now only the Blazers could do it without another move. I forgot to mention that in my post, so thanks. It is a big key to that possibility. The reason Lawson might take the big 1 year pay cut and Durant might sign on is because they are former teammates and friends. If Lawson has a successful year in Houston and Dwight will take a paycut to get a longterm deal. I don't see Dwight getting a max contract. He might get a 2 or 3 year max salary offer, but not a 4 year IMO. It is a lot of money to leave on the table, but $115.6M for 5 years, in Houston, with a super team that could be together for at least a few years of that will be a lot to pass up. The max Howard could get from an outside team would be around $134.8M over 4 years, so about $20M more than the offer I propose makes the Rockets the best team possible, while signing Durant. Of course he would then get to his next contract at 33, instead of 34, so there is likely some kind of contract there, even if it is unlikely to be worth a whole lot. Especially if he isn't as successful and is ridden a lot harder on a lesser squad.
And, it may be a risk, but we could take the risk on Lawson and still have $13-20M to bring him right back with the same team and Dwight extended, if Durant passes on us. Not a bad position to be in.
Totally forgot about the cap going up! 25 million right? So we wouldn't need to trade or lose more than 1 or 2 players and keep Dwight then?
Should be around $90M. We don't need to lose anyone to keep Dwight. And Dwight would probably just have to take a slight discount to stay and make room for Durant if we combine that with renounce Jones or DMo and trading one of Ariza or Brewer.
If we have Ty/Harden/Durant, then Bev/kj/Ariza or brewer/Capella coming off your bench then Dwight will take a pay cut to put a ring on each of his fingers
http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/13530510/nba-pros-cons-kevin-durant-potential-free-agency-destinationsespn video talking about durant.
