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Why are we only shooting 3 pointers?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by tminusrex, Jan 13, 2013.

  1. teebone21

    teebone21 Member

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    Thank you! Harden is good but people ignore his deficiencies far to often. He doesn't score easy like other players and his game is just euro steps or 3's at top of key that are usually contested. He plays like dwade did when he was a rookie but later dwade learned to consistently shoot mids to make himself harder to guard. Harden will get there one day but he needs to learn to expand his games like others
     
  2. CantGoLeft

    CantGoLeft Member

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    First I'll say that as a NYK there wasn't much of a scouting report on Lin. Now teams know a lot about what Lin likes to do and how to defend him. The following info is from nba.com advanced stats. His shooting fg% is down everywhere on the court this year except at the rim.

    a rim
    b paint(w/o a)
    c midrange
    d corner 3P
    e above the break 3P

    2011/2012 2012/2013
    fg/fga % (% of fga) fg/fga % (% of fga)
    a 81/164 .49 (42.8) 102/183 .56 (45.1)
    b 30/65 .46 (17) 14/42 .33 (10.3)
    c 36/79 .46 (20.6) 25/65 .38 (16)
    d 6/13 .46 (3.4) 10/27 .37 (6.7)
    e 18/62 .29 (16) 22/89 .25 (21.9)

    Lin is taking less shots in the paint (-7%) and midrange (-3%) and shooting more 3P (+9%)
     
  3. steady

    steady Member

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    Not a Lin expert, but based on what I've read, Lin does not like to shoot 3PTers; he's never been good at it. And he has a good mid range game; it just wasn't working for him earlier this year.

    Jan 7, 2013 article
    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ns-play-has-markedly-improved-in-recent-weeks

    Article has some nice floor graphs and clips.

    Some quotes:
    "Jeremy Lin got off to a slow start to the 2012-13 season. Through December 10, he had made just 38.1 percent of his attempts and had shot a below-league-average percentage from five of six zones in the NBA.com media stats site’s database.


    Like last season, Lin was shooting well below league average in the restricted area and on above the break three-point shots.

    However, after shooting 5.3 percent better than league average on shots inside the paint but outside the restricted area last season in New York, Lin was shooting 14.6 percent worse than league average from the same location through December 10. And after shooting 5.5 percent better than league average on mid-range shots last season in New York, Lin was shooting 14.4 percent worse than league average on mid-range shots through December 10.

    On December 10, Rockets coach Kevin McHale returned from a prolonged leave of absence due to the health and eventual passing of his daughter. Since McHale’s return to the bench, Lin’s play has markedly improved.

    He’s gone from 14.6 percent below league average on shots inside the paint but outside the restricted area to just 0.9 percent below league average. He’s improved from 14.4 percent below league average on mid-range shots to 9.9 percent above league average. He’s also drastically improved his finishing from the restricted area, jumping from 52.3 percent to 65.8 percent, the latter figure 5.9 percent above league average. Overall, he’s shot 49.4 percent from the field since McHale’s return.

    Much of the improvement in Lin’s play can be traced to his performance on pick-and-roll plays. Last season in New York, Lin averaged 0.8 points per play (PPP) as a ball handler on pick-and-roll plays, shooting 43.5 percent from the field and turning the ball over on about one-quarter of those plays.

    Through December 10 of this season, Lin had produced 0.73 PPP as the ball-handler in pick-and-rolls, shooting 42.6 percent from the field and turning the ball over on 20 percent of his plays.

    Since McHale’s return, Lin has produced 63 points on 66 plays as a pick-and-roll ball handler—about 0.95 PPP, representing a massive improvement not only over his play earlier this season, but over last season as well. He has made 57.1 percent of his shots during that time."
     
  4. jocar

    jocar Member

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    I wonder if a team composed of 4 Ray Allens and 1 Asik could win a championship shooting nothing but 3's and very few rebounds
     
  5. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    Rockets when shooting < 30% from 3pt range.

    2012-13 version: 4-5
    1993-94 version: 18-16

    Seems like the heart of a champion had no plan B either.
     
  6. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    If Hakeem's Rockets were any indication, and these are prime Ray Allens and Asik can play 40mpg at peak level, then the answer is a definitively YES!
     
  7. cyclorider

    cyclorider Member

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    Because the Rockets have no post up game. None whatsoever.
     
  8. rocketsfan4

    rocketsfan4 Member

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    Prime Ray Allen was elite offensively. Some years he was the #1 fantasy player (not just guard) due to his across-the-board production and high percentages.
     
  9. BackNthDay

    BackNthDay Member

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    A couple of observations after losing 3 in a row.
    * Agree with prior posters, no low post game and Asik can catch a cold in Calgary during the winter when he rolls to the basket wide open
    * As a result, teams don't leave our 3 point shooters, making our percentage go down
    * Big men are staying home and not moving on the Harden PnR, the Celtics and Philly created turnovers when he tried to go by them.
    * Rebounding is non existent from the PF spot, as Barkley would say what do you call a PF that averages 6 rebounds a SF. Matter of fact, I think SG's out rebound our PF's.
    * Parson thinks he's Larry Bird from the 3 pt line and needs to finish better at the rim
    * Marcus Morris plays lazy, jogging up and down the court. What is he saving his energy for

    Bottom line the team needs to attack the rim, pass efficiently, and the next man needs to finish strong.
     
  10. CheukLau

    CheukLau Member

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    Asik has never been a good catcher nor a good low post finsher EVEN IN THE WINNING STRAIGHT. Hence, your first point is invalid.
    Since your first point is wrong your second one also falls a part.
    Again either mm nor pp is a good rebounder, but they HAVE BEEN LIKE THAT THE WHOLE SEASON.
    I'm not sure what do you want him to do when his teammates keep passing the ball around, and don't even attemp an open shoot.
    mm isn't lazy; just not as strong.
     
  11. CheukLau

    CheukLau Member

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    it is just like blaming harden to or lin for poor shooting. well they have nothing to do with our recent struggling.
     
  12. Aydge

    Aydge Member

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    The midrange shot being a low reward shot has been quite proven. If you don't want to check basic basketball analytic resources to see that then so be it. The only argument for the midrange shot that can be made is that it is a "space-creater" that if used just enough, it would create higher quality 3pt shots and shots at the rim. I don't know of any good way to quantify that and test the claim. But, IMO it is the worst shot in regards to "space-creation" as well because the midrange shot is closer to the 3pt line and the rim than they are to each other.

    Taking shots at rim makes the defense collapse, kicking it out to the 3pt line makes the defense expand and open up driving lanes. Midrange shots don't force the defense to expand or collapse much.
     
  13. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    So basically you're saying the difference between the Rockets and these teams above is Nash, Amaare, Parker, Duncan, Malone, Stockton, and Jordan? I guess my response is, duh? I'm quite sure that if McHale has any of those players, they can take whatever the hell kind of shot they want.

    OTOH, the Rockets won championships with Kenny Smith shooting 3s, Robert Horry shooting 3s, Vernon shooting 3s, etc. You know why? Because these players weren't sure fire HOFers.
     
  14. BigBenito

    BigBenito Member

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    Yeah, could have replaced Olajuwon and Drexler with anyone, because we shot the 3 a lot.
     
  15. brick

    brick Member

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    When your opponent knows you don't take midrange shots, they stay packed in the paint when you are driving. It has been very effective against Rockets' penetration in recent games.
     
  16. teebone21

    teebone21 Member

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    It wasn't a low efficiency shot for Jordan or real super star players like melo and kobe. Even Holliday kicked our asses with his midrange jumper when we played philly
     
  17. Aydge

    Aydge Member

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    You don't pack the paint against a team that shoots 3s, if that's a teams strategy then lucky us.
     
  18. bmd

    bmd Member

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    That's not drastically different...

    44% compared to 52%.

    That is 34 games played in 1993-1994 where they were shooting less than 30% from 3pt. range.

    If we multiply 44% by 34 games, you get:

    15-19.

    So 15-19 compared to 18-16.

    That is a 3 game difference.
     
  19. bmd

    bmd Member

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    I realize now that I am proving your point lol. I misunderstood what you were saying.
     
  20. steady

    steady Member

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    It's not about changing the basic philosophy of 3 ball and drives to the rim. It's about having some versatility so you keep defenses guessing, and to use as a backup when your 3 ball is not falling.
     

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