Who Will Be the #1 Overall Pick?

Depends on how you look at it.

If you believe, like most analytics show, that a pitchers arm has a finite amount of elite pitches in it (before you see either regression or injury)... it really does matter how many pitches they're throwing at any level.

There's also people who believe its much worse to throw 130+ pitches in one start, vs. 50-75 pitches only 2-3 days apart (basically eliminating the "increased rest solves all" issue).

You also have to look at how much he's laboring... and how many pitches he's thrown per inning. Repetitive 20-30 pitch innings, with repeated pick off throws, are far more taxing than somebody who has an "easy" 9 inning 125 pitch day.

 

Well, i've never seen any specific data that shows there are a "finite amount of elite pitches" in an arm. Not sure how that could actually be proven even if people tried. I know that a lot of "elite" pitchers pitch much longer than others who seem to be elite, but don't prove to be.

I think you can probably find someone who will try to prove any specific theory if you want to. I've heard people talking about Rodon's pitch count all year, and yet he seems to be getting stronger as the year goes??

Also, I have no data to back up what i'm about to say (and don't have the inclination to try to find it) but it sure seems like before everyone wanted to "count pitches" and "baby" pitching prospects, there were fewer major injuries to pitchers. I mean never in history have pitchers been under pitch counts like they are today, and yet the number of pitchers who are undergoing Tommy John seem to be drastically increasing.

So maybe you are right, maybe every pitcher only has a certain number of elite pitches in his arm, and the elite ones should just go straight to the majors, forget about development, and just throw what they have till their days are over . . .but I personally have just never seen anything close to proof showing that is the case

 

http://www.lybrary.com/extra-inning...-234579.html?gclid=COGfqZWe_b0CFaNj7AodagkAdQ

Read that book... its in there.

 

Na, i'll pass. Thanks for the link though, I do appreciate it

Whoever wrote it, i'm sure is the absolute source on that type of info. Hopefully all of the mlb GM's have this info

 

You do realize that the people who wrote a good amount of that book were hired by Luhnow to work for the Astros front office.

You better believe that GM's are keen on this info.

 

Actually, no I don't have any idea who wrote that book. I am glad, though, that the front office has that great info and won't be wasting any #1 draft picks on pitchers who have already thrown away many of their elite pitches.

It does all make sense though, i'm sure glad way back when that we didn't pay big money to keep Nolan around, knowing that he has already thrown so many of those elite pitches out of his poor arm

 

Sure... pick a statistical outlier to try to prove your point. These guys looked at hundreds of pitchers drafted over the last 10 years to see how they developed (college vs. high school), and who would be more likely to succeed vs. who would be more likely to have Strasburg-like overuse injuries, etc.

You asked where the data was, I showed you... you mocked the source (BP), not realizing that Fast and Wyers were hired by Luhnow pretty soon after this book was released (and, btw, they specifically crunched the pitching numbers).

I'm not making this pick... they are. And yes, they will consider his heavy pitch counts as a negative in making this decision. Still doesn't mean he won't be the pick, but you can't say it doesn't "matter".

 

Ok buddy, but I never mocked the source, I simply said I didn't care to read it. I'm sure a lot of the stat heads like Luhnow do put emphasis on stuff like this. I'm also sure that more and more people are looking at stuff like this, and we have more and more serious injuries.

Not sure why you seem to take all of this so personal. I just want the team/organization to get to a point of contention again. You seem to only want that to happen if the course it goes down proves your posts right.

For the record, I have no idea at all if Rodon would be the right choice, I have never seen him pitch a game. I'm sure yourself and Luhnow and all the others have seen many of his games and will do a great job of making the decision of how the fact that his college coaches have abused his arm will affect his future. In the end, hopefully the right pick is made.

 

I think we all want what you want.

I'm not some prognosticator looking to get every post "right"... I'm just giving insight as to why pitch counts, even in college, do matter... and the source for the data that supports it (which happens to be written by now members of the front office).

We all know they can't afford to blow these picks... not with the master plan of sucking in order to ensure they're picking at the top.

I was also on board with Appel last year, despite the negative college work load and questions about his secondary pitches... and I'm pretty sure the organization is hoping for the best that this recent demotion will help fix him (but its really not a good sign at all, either in the analytical world or the real world).

 

Is Appel struggling?

 

Yes. See minor league update thread.

 

I agree. If Appel continues to struggle this season then I think that will directly affect their decision to draft another college arm who's had a heavy workload.

 

MLB.com did their new top 100 draft list

1. SP Brady Aiken
2. SP Carlos Rodon
3. SP Tyler Kolek
4. SP Jeff Hoffman
5. C/OF Alex Jackson
6. SP Aaron Nola
7. SS Nick Gordon
8. SP Tyler Beede
9. SP Kyle Freeland
10. OF Bradley Zimmer

 

Looks like both (Callis and Mayo) have the top 4 pitchers (Aiken (1 and 4), Hoffman (4 and 3), Kolek (3 and 2), and Rodon (2 and 1)) going 1-4 in some order. Will be interesting to see how they rank on the Astros' Big Board!

For what it is worth, Callis and Mayo both had the Astros taking Appel first in 2012 and Gray in 2013 in their final mocks for those respective years.

 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan, Astros manager Bo Porter and bench coach Dave Trembley just arrived to see Kolek. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Astros&amp;src=hash">#Astros</a> <a href="http://t.co/0qzANpwEd2">pic.twitter.com/0qzANpwEd2</a></p>&mdash; Jose de Jesus Ortiz (@OrtizKicks) <a href="https://twitter.com/OrtizKicks/statuses/462020908903706624">May 2, 2014</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Next tweet will be a roll call of top brass of amateur scouting heavyweights in attendance tonight to see Shepherd RHP Tyler Kolek.</p>&mdash; Jose de Jesus Ortiz (@OrtizKicks) <a href="https://twitter.com/OrtizKicks/statuses/462015830784360448">May 1, 2014</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>2 scouting directors: Marlins and Cubs.
2 national cross checkers: Rockies &amp; White Sox.
2 regional cross checker: Astros, Twins.
<a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23TylerKolek&amp;src=hash">#TylerKolek</a></p>&mdash; Jose de Jesus Ortiz (@OrtizKicks) <a href="https://twitter.com/OrtizKicks/statuses/462017034373447680">May 1, 2014</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Tyler Kolek warms up. <a href="https://t.co/8UWVjpIUna">https://t.co/8UWVjpIUna</a></p>&mdash; Jose de Jesus Ortiz (@OrtizKicks) <a href="https://twitter.com/OrtizKicks/statuses/462012824597041152">May 1, 2014</a></blockquote>
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