I think the biggest concern about Rodon right now is wear and tear . He has a track record of dominance and wipeout MLB stuff. I'm shocked that His college coaches are wearing him out so much and potentially ruining his career / future earnings. It's almost criminal. On the other hand , if he cannot make it through a college season the likelihood of him making through a MLB season is slim and in that way I guess you would rather know about his durability before drafting him . Rodon doesn't have the biggest body and perhaps he naturally wore down. I don't have all the information about his number of pitches and innings etc , but I would be willing to guess that they are excessive and if he had been drafted out of high school then a careful farm director would have limited his work much more carefully. College teams have to know MLB standards for workloads and if Rodon is being overworked and his draft stock drops then it will be a cautionary tale for both college teams and for pitchers who forgoe being drafted out of highschool. Of course he could just not be in midsession form yet and could very easily reclaim his number one overall pick stock.
Every pitcher's arms have a finite number of "elite" pitches in them before they wear out. Some wear out faster than others... regardless of "work-load". I still think its too early to declare him a bust, just like it was too early to declare him the next David Price. Even Strassburg required surgery for a wear/tear type injury early on in his career... I'm sure teams will further do their homework when investing this much money on unproven arms.
Being "cursed" would be having selected him, and he's a total bust. The fact that he is regressing now is totally a "blessing" if he is indeed not the slam-dunk pitcher he was supposed to be (not saying he isn't, and not saying he can't turn it around... but better to find out now rather than 4 months from now).
can somebody show that his college coaches are wearing him out? What have his pitch counts been like? or is this just idle speculation with no evidence?
Just off a google search i found http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/carlos-rodon-clay-holmes-and-pitcher-efficiency/ not gonna recap the whole thing, but there are a couple really exhausting looking outings 4 and 1/3 and 108 pitches 5 and 2/3 and 123 pitches 6 and 2/3 and 129 pitches Those outings are more the norm than the outliers too out of the ones listed. College coaches are definitely a lot less restrictive on pitch counts when it comes to protecting young arms. Those three i listed made me cringe and reek of burning out a young guy. A 21 year old in MLB would never be allowed to approach those kinds of pitch counts.
if that's all the evidence you have, then that's not convincing. Remember in college they only pitch once every 7 days (did you know that? lol). College is also a much shorter season than MLB, although there is some length added to it by him playing with Team USA. based on your data alone, he hasn't been over worked
From that link: Average innings: 6 2/3 Average pitch count: 107.7 He had one bad outing where he threw 62 pitches in 2 innings, which I sure hope was not in relief. If Rodon is not making relief appearances in the regular season, I don't think you can make the over-worked argument.
I'm not trying to make the argument that he is overworked.. I just said it was a concern and I'm sure scouts and general managers will study his outings to make sure he was not being overused.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>I'm hearing Astros amateur scouting director Mike Elias is tentatively planning to see Shepherd High RHP Tyler Kolek on Friday night.</p>— Jose de Jesus Ortiz (@OrtizKicks) <a href="https://twitter.com/OrtizKicks/statuses/453578613510529024">April 8, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>"It's wide open," Mike Elias said of 1st pick options. "Right now nobody has stamped themselves as the pick as of right now."</p>— Jose de Jesus Ortiz (@OrtizKicks) <a href="https://twitter.com/OrtizKicks/statuses/453579746756939776">April 8, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Hearing LHP Brady Aiken, the top prospect for this year's <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23mlbdraft&src=hash">#mlbdraft</a>, is dealing today, hitting 96 at least six times already</p>— keithlaw (@keithlaw) <a href="https://twitter.com/keithlaw/statuses/454039503771299840">April 9, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Rodon looked much closer to the pitcher the industry expected coming into season. Sat 94-96 early, touching 98. Hit 95 on 133rd pitch</p>— Clint Longenecker (@Clint_BA) <a href="https://twitter.com/Clint_BA/statuses/454812260100497408">April 12, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Tyler Kolek had 14 K/0 BB over 7 on Friday. Now up to 89 K/3 BB over 40.1 IP. Getting at least a week of rest between starts. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23MLBDraft&src=hash">#MLBDraft</a></p>— Dan Kirby (@DanMKirby) <a href="https://twitter.com/DanMKirby/statuses/455747498939006976">April 14, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Scary thing is that some people have Aiken ahead of him (Kolek being RHP vs. Aiken being LHP and Kolek playing weaker competition make the difference). If I'm willing to gamble on a HS pitcher, I'm taking the hometown kid who throws triple digits.
Steve Bernhardt chairs the selection committee for the Under Armour All-America Game. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Reports of <a href="https://twitter.com/tylerkolek58">@tylerkolek58</a> up to 103 mph in last few starts. Could be first HS RHP to go 1-1. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23UAAllAmerica&src=hash">#UAAllAmerica</a></p>— Steve Bernhardt (@Steve_Bernhardt) <a href="https://twitter.com/Steve_Bernhardt/statuses/456596951375413250">April 17, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>