who do you think will win the 2012 Presidential Election?

will this be like '04 in reverse?

a stiff/massachusetts/flipfloping (kerry/romney) vs a somewhat weakened incumbent?


as of now, obama will be win again.

 

MA definitely goes to Obama - they hate the new Romney there, and it's about as blue a state as there is.

Indiana is probably the most likely of the Obama states to flip to Romney, and it's probably pretty likely since Obama barely won it in a strong Dem year. So that would leave you still at 270-268.

Of the states you have, I think Virginia, Ohio, and Minnesota are the most in-play (possibly flips), assuming the race is competitive.

 

Ohio has a good unemployment rate, one that's currently dropping, they probably vote blue.

Virginia was a democrat stronghold, but they booted the Dems from the governor in '10, so I don't think they'll vote Obama.

I still think Minnesota is divided, that will be a big swing state.

If Obama can hold PA and NV (assuming lightning strikes) then he wins.

 

Might surprise you that I am in that group. But it isn't because he's a Mormon.

If you think a lot of the religious right won't vote for Romney, even Robert Jeffress, the Dallas pastor (and Perry supporter) who called Mormonism a cult, said he would vote for Romney over Obama. He even acknowledges Obama is a Christian. So imagine the ones who still believe Obama might be a Muslim.

Did you have some other specific reason why large numbers of people won't vote for Romney?

 

Surprisingly I really don't care too much on who wins in 2012. Most likely its going to come down to Mitt vs Obama. Out of those two I don't think my life would be too different on whether who is President. I see that Obama is trying to fix things but I guess he hasnt been too successful. Yes i know I know the people on the left are going to blame the Republicans in congress. But it might be nice to get some new blood in there with Mitt and see what he can do even though he isnt too exciting. At the same time the world is not going to end if Obama wins again. So...

I think I am going to do a write in vote for this guy

 

my image didnt show up ..here is another one

 

Florida voted for Obama last time and might be even more leaning that way because of the GOP attack on medicare and Social Security.

I doubt MA would vote for Romney. He isn't too popular there now.

I wouldn't cast it in the for sure category yet, but it might be in the leaning category.

 

Sitting president with terrible economy = Win for other side.

I'm surprised Obama still has a chance.

 

Obama can be beat if the Republicans could put out a good candidate, but they can't. Same thing with GW when he was going up for re-election.

 

Obama also has the best campaign staff in the US (and its not even close). Obama for America revolutionized campaigning and grassroots organizing. On top of that he kept the campaign running during the presidency.

As a result, he already has an office running in all 50 states. In a state as worthless as Texas to him, he already has major operations in Dallas, Houston, El Paso, and San Antonio with live phonebanks and operational staff right now.

He is already outraising the rest of the Republicans combined purely on the strength of individual donors and he has a volunteer staff that flat out shames the Republicans.

Eventually the Republicans will build an organization across the country but they wont be able to emulate Obama. He won states like Indiana and North Carolina on the back of amazing organizing. I dont expect him to duplicate that again but I do expect him to solidly outdo the Republicans in terms of campaign organization.

 

Romney should have this if the economy continues to suck.

 

Obama will win with 47% of the vote. This time Republicans will be the ones b****ing about the electoral college.

 

It's a new socialist world

 

i've been giving this more thought. for this poll, i still vote/think obama gets the win, but all along i've been thinking romney is the lock... i'm starting to think the republicans are crazy enough to nominate cain.

 

I am curious what makes you think MN would go Republican?

It is a divided state but percentage wise Democrats still hold the edge. While this is the state that elected Michelle Bachmann three times keep in mind in two of those races she was running against a terrible opponent and the third the anti Bachmann vote was divided.

While Republicans have been energized and they capitalized by finally taking the both houses of the legislature by a narrow margin Republican victories have more often been due to DFL failings.

My own opinion about MN is that Obama will win. He won't win by a huge margin but he will hold MN. For the whole country I give Obama a 70% chance of winning again, provided the economy doesn't completely tank or something else unusual doesn't happen.

 

That is definitely in the realm of possibility but I think Obama still wins the popular vote narrowly. I think Obama's support is more diverse and widespread than any of the Republicans. The most likely electoral scenario I see is Obama winning both slim electoral and popular vote majority even though the Republican wins a majority of the states.

 

Signed,

Ronald Reagan

 

That seems to be far more similar to a Gore type scenario, where he lost his home state because his and his former constituents' views had diverged so greatly.

 

In that case I'd almost think Perry is a better choice, since he provides more of a contrast.

 

Here are the intrade results right now:

Obama win

Romney to be Repub candidate