Past two years there have been once in a generation type prospects at Pitcher and catcher/outfielder. Astros secure number one and we can't even get a close to consensus #1 guy. Rotten luck.
I have a feeling this won't be the Astros only #1 pick. Maybe next year there will be a Strasburg/Harper type.
Well, actually this past year, I'm not sure Gerrit Cole was considered consensus #1, but the Nationals obviously struck gold with Strasburg and Harper back-to-back the years before that.
Appel from Stanford completely dominated UT-Austin branch last night. Took a no-hitter into the 5th. Stanford won the game easily. UT-Austin branch doesn't have great offense, but still an impressive, dominating performance by Appel -- 1 ER over 7 innings, 10 K's
Orlando had back to back #1's in basketball and got no hardware out of it. Baseball is infinitely bigger crapshoot with regards to player development, so I wouldn't be lamenting anything just yet. Mark Prior was a once in a generation prospect way back when.
Potential 1st pick Lucas Giolito threw a one hitter in which he hit 100 on the radar gun a couple of times and issued no walks. Here's a link to the article. http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/var...s-giolito-hits-100-mph-throws-one-hitter.html
It should be interesting following these potential #1 picks. Giolito is definitely intriguing, and could have very well already passed Appel to be the favorite. It will be interesting to see who Luhnow and company draft, especially if Giolito continues his dominance. Drafting a high school pitcher in the first round (with the #1 overall pick no less) would be a very anti-moneyball move (and would be a first RHP high school pitcher to go #1 overall ever, if I am not mistaken). This might be the first test to see if Luhnow's philosophy is truly a hybrid of moneyball and scouting. On one hand the moneyball analytical side will be saying no way you draft a high school pitcher with your #1 pick overall (very risky, a huge no-no in the moneyball world), while the scouts will be and certainly are in love with Giolito. A couple of weeks ago I thought Giolito was a longshot to be drafted by us, but he's making a believer out of me (not that it matters, because surprisingly nobody in the front office has asked me yet).
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/highs...cas-giolito-hits-100-miles-per-180318543.html Yahoo article about Giolito hitting 100mph
Giolito is going to blow out his arm before he makes it to the majors, unless his delivery is effortless. If was in college and throwing 100 mph gas, then I'd draft him #1 overall in a heart beat.
....I didn't say they would both pan out. Of course players don't pan out all the time. But it's silly to act like it's not nice to have a once in a generation rated player available the year you pick first. The point is they were both super prospects. And Cole wasn't consensus #1 this past year but he was still pretty much a lock by most teams. This year, it could literally be 10 different guys. That's the first time in a long time there has been no clear-cut frontrunner for a team that could literally use prospects any and everywhere.
That is a huge concern. This will be the first draft under the new CBA, which limits total spending in the draft. The Astros only have $11.2M to spend on the first 10 rounds (11 picks). Last year's #1 got $8M alone, and he was a college pitcher.
One could also say its silly to whine about not being 7ft tall. It is what it is. We can't get too caught up with what we don't have. I'm personally interested to see what happens. This is a lithmus test for the next staff. It's easy to draft when there's a consensus pick on the board.
If thats the case, then the agents will know that the days of ridiculous salary demands for the big time players might be over. They will get nice contracts, just not the crazy money some were asking for.
I would take Giolito if the draft were held today. His delivery is very clean and low effort, FYI. He also already throws strikes pretty consistently. I think he will get to the majors almost as fast as a college arm. Gausman is climbing up my board a bit. Zunino is going down a bit. Nick Williams is in the conversation for our supplemental and second round picks, not for first overall. Not a big fan of Appel. He'll need to make a strong case for himself the rest of the season.
I'm nervous about taking any pitcher #1 overall. I would rather draft the best position player available at really any position besides 1B. For guys who know some of the prospects, who are the position players in this draft?
Marrero is the only name really being mentioned as far as position players go, and he plays SS. Byron Buxton is a high-school OF that has shot up draft charts, and is the top HS position player. The Astros are most likely drafting a pitcher.
Zunino is up there too as a good defensive catcher who also has plus power. I would put him above Marrero. I agree though that the Astros will probably draft a pitcher when it comes down to it. The pitchers in this draft class simply have higher ceilings than the position players, except Buxton, who has a lot of question marks (it would be scary to take him first overall because he has a high bust potential). Right now I think it's between Giolito, Appel, and Gausman. Appel's stock is falling and the stock for the other two is rising.
