I had to explain this to a guy at work today (I work in the Bronx), he couldn't understand that even if the Knicks sign Lebron/Bosh, the rest of the team will be made up of a 6th grade B team. I would hate to be a Knicks fan right now, no hope in sight and with the prospect of losing 3 consecutive top 10 picks in the draft b/c of trades..... ouch.
I live in the nyc too and have had that conversation too many times with knick fans that think the knicks are actually in a good position for next season.
My bad about the max contracts, as you have already stated the max salaries should be 16.5 and the 20 mill-ish I previously thought. However you're missing the boat. Its not 2 max FAs or bust, quite honestly even if Wade and LBJ both agreed to play in NY there's no way they can win a title with only Gallinari, Duhon and d-league players. What I'm saying is you can build a Leastern conference playoff team even if they don't get the max FAs. Its not too hard to do esp. with NY clearing their cap and the FA this year being a deep one (even disregarding the max people). Quite honestly even if they don't get Rudy Gay, a core of David Lee, Mike Miller and Boozer should be enough to make them a playoff team already. I definitely don't see them in the top 10 lottery when this summer is done.
As much as I like bashing the Knicks for their ineptitude, they are an immediate contender if they get Lebron/Bosh. No ifs no buts. They automatically rise to AT LEAST just a notch below Orlando, Atlanta(if JJ stays), and Boston(if KG's not done). No, they're going to have no depth, but they can get some players. Over the hill veteran players will sign at minimum for a chance at the ring. They can buy a bunch of 2nd round picks doing the same thing Morey has been doing. They might even be able to buy a 1st round pick, assuming the cap ramifications are fine. They can also trade Curry's expiring contract to give another team monetary relief for overpaid players. And in 2011-2012, NY will be armed with a MLE again for a rotation guy. So as a Rockets fan, you still have to pray the Knicks don't get their dream scenario. Because in that scenario, our pick swap and 2012 pick from the Knicks will be near worthless.
Why will it be worthless? The pick swap might be useless, but the 2012 is still a first round pick, no matter how you slice it. We all know what DM can do with picks, no matter how low or which round it is.
I disagree. Sure, ESPN will talk about them as contenders. But they won't be. Maybe a couple of old veterans sign there for the minimum for a chance to still play major minutes and to be on national TV a lot, but if they were REALLY chasing a ring, they'd sign with the Lakers or the Nuggets or one of the better Eastern Conference teams already with more depth. Sure, they could buy picks. I'll give you that. But how many contending teams had multiple second round rookies as major contributors? I'm talking about at least two or three guys here. Also, there is a very good chance that there won't be an MLE anymore after the new CBA is put in place in 2011. That is a major sticking point for the owners and is one of the biggest causes of skyrocketing player salaries. The owners would be willing to increase the max and the league minimum before they'd be willing to continue the MLE (at least at the current amount). The Knicks honestly might be stuck with two max guys, Gallinari, Chandler and a bunch of guys making $1M or less. Heading into the summer of 2011, fewer teams are going to want to make cap-clearing deals, for fear that the new CBA structure might not allow them to re-stock their roster via free agency quite as easily. I just don't see Eddy Curry's $11.2M expiring contract being that valuable. I look at Curry as a Brian Cook with a much bigger contract. And you are assuming that both max guys stay healthy the whole season. If even one of those guys misses a game, it's pretty much a loss for the Knicks. If one of those guys goes down for any extended period, the Knicks are screwed. I also still don't think they'd be as good as Chicago and Miami (each of whom will add SOMEBODY, even if not one of the top guys), and Charlotte and a Lebron-less Cavs team are both well-coached and play pretty good defense. Milwaukee will also be pretty good next year, especially if Brandon Jennings works on his jumpshot in the offseason. People get so wrapped up in the "stars win championships" thing that they miss the fact that stars don't win squat unless they are surrounded by a quality supporting cast. New York won't be able to afford much in that department. Even if New York succeeds in getting Lebron and Bosh (their dream scenario, which is not likely at all), they are no better than a five seed in the East IMHO. Given the strength of the West, that would put their 2011 pick in the range of #18 to #21. And that's the Rockets WORST case scenario. The overwhelming likelihood is that the Knicks will largely strike out in free agency and will have to settle for a couple of second tier guys like Rudy Gay (who they will have to grossly overpay so that Memphis doesn't match their offer sheet) and EITHER Carlos Boozer (who is looking for a ridiculous payday and a contract that his team will ultimately regret giving to him) or David Lee. I don't think that team makes the playoffs until at least 2012, when they can add a little more talent around them over two offseasons. Bottom line: While those Knicks picks could possibly end up being in the second half of the first round, it is far less likely than those picks being in the mid to late lottery.
