To all those who think another team will swoop in and snag Scola away from the Rockets, I have the following two bits of info for you: (1) The Rockets have full Bird rights on Scola (2) Luis Scola is a restricted free agent Scola isn't going anywhere next year unless the Rockets don't want him or unless they trade him.
Agreed. Either he ends up having monster year since he's our best offensive big man threat or he gets doubled and puts up numbers worse than last years.
Even though we have his Bird rights, whatever money we give to him is still going to restrict what we can offer another player, right? I like Scola, but presumably Rockets will be looking to sign a more substantial player than him next offseason. If the Rockets trade him or let him go, that would free up some extra money. Considering we already have Landry and Hayes at that position (perhaps not as good as Scola, but still decent as a tandem), it seems possible that's a direction the Rockets would go. Disagree?
Exactly... if 25 year old RFA David Lee can't get a decent contract offer, what makes people think 30 year old Scola (i.e. David Lee without a left hand and hops) will somehow get priced out of the Rockets budget?
If david is free next year, i think he is easy to find a good contract. but this year is bad time for free agent. you can see odom can only get MLE offer from other teams.
Scola's cap hold is about $6.7M next summer. The Rockets would likely sign an outside free agent before re-signing Luis. It probably won't be until August or September before Scola is re-signed, similar to the restricted free agency adventures of Landry in 2008. However, if the Rockets think they can re-sign Scola for less than $6.7M, they should try to do it ASAP in order to open up more cap room for outside free agents. As for Hayes ($2.3M team option) and Landry ($3.0M team option), I think the Rockets decline on Hayes and pick up the option on Landry. I could still see the team trying to re-sign Chuck at a lower price, however.
Good post - I would give you cred if I could....and I absolutely agree with you. RFAs in Houston during the Morey era should just get used to the wait for the market to set the price. I can't imagine too many scenarios with our current roster at least where Houston tried to renegotiate a contract earlier. I agree that Chuckwagon probably gets resigned at a lower price to reflect his spot further down the depth chart on our roster. Chucks a good guy, but then again this is business.
I doubt the Rockets decline Hayes. He's going to get plenty of mniutes next year, and likely proven to be worth more than the $2.3 million price tag. Of course, if the $2.3 million is the difference between landing, say, Joe Johnson or losing him, then I can see the option being declined. Other than that scenario, I think they pick up the option. Worst comes to worst, he's pretty cheap insurance. I can also see him having some trade value (likely in a package, given the small salary) at that price tag-- particularly if Tom Thibodeau or Elston Turner gets a job as a head coach.
Well said. The looks of it, Scola will remain as a Rocket and as you said unless traded for a franchise player.
It would be wise for the Rockets to get him under long-term contract ASAP. He's just a great piece to the puzzle, whether they're rebuilding or not. Some players are risky; you don't know how their motivation is going to ebb and flow, or whether they're going to fit in. Scola's low risk, high return. He's going to bring his game every night, he's smart, adaptable, and you don't have to worry about his ego getting in the way. You know that barring injury, he's likely to contribute every night for several more years. Unless an amazing trade comes along, the Rockets need to lock this guy up.
Yep, but if another team offers him a contract of more than 6-7 millions a year then we would have to choose to match and all the speculation on waiting and signing anothe player will be gone.
I agree with Cabbage. The reason Lee never led his team anywhere is because he plays for the knicks. Its almost been a decade and no person has rescued that franchise. They are finally heading in the right direction through the impact of a variety of people. Lee however has been the most consistent knick over the past few seasons and averaged he even led the league in double doubles. He is an exceptional rebounder and an agile forward that can run. I feel he will be a great fit in the Knicks offense. Any other year I think he is worth at least 7-8 million a year. Scola is similar to Lee in many categories and they should be getting around but due to the expected decrease in salary cap I see him getting around the mid level exception. However your argument that Lee has never led anyone anywhere is not fair.
This came up as the first hit in my daily morning search for the key words 'thacabbage', 'thecabbage', and 'cabbage.' Assuming you are referring to me, you would be mistaken with regard to that sentiment as I find David Lee to be quite possibly the most overrated player in basketball and undoubtedly expect him to frontline Bill Simmons' annual "most overpaid players" list for 2010.
Haha, I'm sorry I should've referenced you as "thecabbage". I was definetly mistaken then as I just assumed from "Exactly... if 25 year old RFA David Lee can't get a decent contract offer, what makes people think 30 year old Scola (i.e. David Lee without a left hand and hops) will somehow get priced out of the Rockets budget?" that you thought he was a player that was being underpaid from your comparison with Scola, my apologies. I am unclear as to how high you are on Scola but as I stated in my opinion his similar to Lee perhaps with greater range. This year can be incredibily important to Scola individualy is he is finally able to step out of the shadows of Yao and McGrady to see what he can really do as a first or second option. I am intrigued.
CH, while I agree with you that Hayes is probably worth at least $2.3M as a defensive ace, the Rockets will need to decide on whether to exercise their team option BEFORE free agency commences. So if Hayes was the difference between being able to afford a big-time free agent, the Rockets might need to decline regardless, in order to even have the money. If they pick up Hayes's option and subsequently find themselves in the running for a major free agent, Morey could be in a real bind trying to dump that extra salary. I'd actually be curious to know whether Hayes's final year is a pure team option or if it is partially guaranteed. I wish the league/ESPN would be better about publishing this information about all player contracts (I know the league probably can't do this, though). I'd love to know, not only which contracts are partially guaranteed (draftexpress.com shows this information), but the amounts of the guarantees. For instance, if Hayes's contract is actually a non-guaranteed year, then the Rockets would obviously keep him during the free agent signing period until his salary became guaranteed or until a major free agent signs for all of the Rockets remaining cap room. True. But it is highly unlikely that any team extends an offer sheet to a restricted free agent if that team KNOWS the player's original team desires to keep that player. This is especially true during the first two weeks of free agency, when most or all of the "big fish" come off the board. A team would be VERY stupid to tie up, say, $7-8M in salary cap room during this team. Morey would likely pull a "screw you" and wait the full 7 days before matching. The offering team would then be left with no Scola and would lose out on a bunch of other good free agents as well.
I'm not sure the prevalent assumption here that Scola's production will increase is very justified. While his numbers did go up with the increased minutes in Landry's absence this past year, let's remember that he was still essentially playing off of Yao. The same goes for the prior year in Yao's absence in playing off of McGrady. So while I think he has shown that you can expect a production increase as a factor of his minutes, this is still largely dependent on his role within the system. I don't think you can just necessarily extrapolate from the assumption of an increased role on the team. This isn't a guy who you can throw the ball into and let him work. Except for extremely favorable matchups (see: Lamar Odom), he does the majority of his damage thriving off of the attention given to others. That will hurt him a lot this year so I expect everything to balance out. With that said, I would hold off on dealing him for the time being. This isn't anything unique to Luis. In a lost season, it is preferable to have all of one's best pieces available in the event someone unexpectedly goes on the market near the deadline rather than hurriedly dealing them off prematurely. This goes for everyone on the team except for Brooks who I think is the only guy whose value will actually come down from its current level. (Though I would still refrain from dealing him now as he will be needed as the main piece in a McGrady trade; the latter's value also expected to only increase as the deadline approaches.)
