What's the story behind 'We played with energy' after wins, 'We didn't play with energy' after losse

We played with enough overall energy to win, just couldn't pull it off. The numbers really tell you about you know who's off the ball defense, you can't win MVP without showing up on both sides of the court, much less giving up career highs. Just match up the game speed with point differential, that's not a coincidence IMO:

Distance: Rockets 16.16 > Raptors 15.99 ; UFGA: Rockets 30 > Raptors 35

Prigioni - 4.62 (+4)
Johnson - 4.57 (+5)
Capela - 4.34 (-4)
Brewer - 4.14 (+1)
Terry - 4.03 (-7)
Dorsey - 3.99 (+5)
Ariza - 3.86 (-12)
Smith - 3.77 (+6)
Harden - 3.63 (-13)

IMO, the Rockets need to find a way to have confidence - at least sometimes - in sitting James more and forcing him to actually run when playing off-the-ball defense. That one wide open three in the highlights is one of the many examples. Off the ball, he is playing defense on his heels, not the balls of his feet. You can't judge his defense only when playing one-on-one.

 

Pretty predictable that we'd be outrun in a close game at home against a struggling team. We are definitely not playoff ready.

Distance: Kings 16.42 > Rockets 16.13 ; UFGA: Rockets 42 > Kings 35

Prigioni - 4.62
Brewer - 4.5
Terry - 4.45
Capela - 4.13
Jones - 4.08
Ariza - 4.08
Dorsey - 3.86
Harden - 3.78
Smith - 3.77

 

Wow, this is crazy how predictable this is. Against a playoff team, the Rockets outran the Mavs and won. Ariza had his highest energy game in months, probably no coincidence that he's Parsons' replacement.

Distance: Rockets 16.37 > Mavs 16.21 ; UFGA: Mavs 43 > Rockets 36

Prigioni - 4.7
Brewer - 4.44
Terry - 4.3
Ariza - 4.28
Jones - 4.03
Howard - 3.93
Dorsey - 3.86
Harden - 3.63
Smith - 3.59

 

We almost lost against a team that lost 4 of their last 5, missing two of their top three players, who outhustled us significantly. That is not going to fly in the playoffs. The one bright spot is Smith ran more than he has in the past month, and it correlated with a +16.

Distance: Thunder 16.74 > Rockets 16.27 ; UFGA: Thunder 43 > Rockets 29

Prigioni - 4.66 (-1)
Terry - 4.25 (+4)
Jones - 4.22 (-9)
Brewer - 4.2 (-1)
Ariza - 4.05 (+8)
Howard - 4.01 (+8)
Dorsey - 3.91 (-7)
Smith - 3.86 (+16)
Harden - 3.54 (-3)

Long term concern: If James continues to be at the bottom of game speed, not only on the team, but in the league, we're going to continue to give up 112 points and 43 uncontested field goals like we did to the Thunder. See chart below from last year (hey, if they had one from this year, I'd post that instead), which IMO is a direct reflection of his flat-footed waddling approach (I call it his Duck Defense). to off-the-ball defense, showing opponents shoot a higher % on average on Harden when shooting 3's and layups - which fits with the fact James tends to hover flat-footed in between.



If we put this amount of effort in the Spurs game, we will undoubtedly be blown out, followed by one of those instrospective wake-up articles asking 'are the Rockets the contenders they thought they were?' The Spurs are the kind of team that takes advantage of players who play the kind of lackadaisical off-the-ball defense James does - just watched the Russell Westbrook highlights - it's painfully obvious.

Of course he's the offensive MVP, but is that all an MVP is? Shouldn't you also beat the top playoff teams? All he has to do is try harder in his off-the-ball defense.

 

It's a whole new world when it comes to the playoffs. Which teams are in playoff preparation mode, and which ones aren't? One metric is to check defensive efficiency in the last 3 games. For anyone who's played sports, defensive efficiency is directly related to defensive intensity/energy. There's just no way around that.

Rankings of teams with top defensive efficiency in the last 3 games:

2. Indiana (#1 East seed last year who just got George back)
3. Washington
4. Memphis
6. San Antonio
7. Cleveland (#18 for the season)
10. Chicago
12. LA Clippers
14. Portland
17. Atlanta
18. Golden State
20. Houston (#7 for the season)
21. New Orleans
24. Toronto
26. Oklahoma City
28. Dallas

It is a coincidence that the teams with the deepest playoff experience are already shifting the rankings, and the opposite for those that don't? I personally don't think so - I think they've already shifted gears. And yes, of course there are anomalies.

For anyone who thinks these posts are meant to troll the Rockets, you're missing the point. It's about not wanting to go home again after the first round. It's time to shift gears and up the defensive intensity, Rockets, especially the ones at the bottom.

 

From Feigen today:

You can get a good idea how that post-season is going to go based on these last few games determining playoff positioning. There's a reason betting lines weigh heavily on how teams are playing recently (i.e. the last three games), and I can also assure you they're putting a significant amount of research in those findings as well given the fact that, well, money is at stake.

Then again, there's also personal opinion.

 

The point of this thread is to convince the Rockets to up their defensive intensity otherwise they're not going to make it past the second round, if even the first, and to provide recent evidence of that.

Take the Spurs. Their average team speed in the past three games has been:

4.29 (17.17 total distance) vs Thunder with a +.34 in distance.
4.39 (17.55) vs Warriors with a +.69
4.26 (17.04) vs Nuggets with a +.39

The Rockets?
4.03 (16.13) vs Thunder with a -.29
4.07 (16.27) vs Mavs with +.16
4.09 (16.37) vs Kings with a -.47

That says the Spurs are outrunning their opponents by a half mile throughout the game, while the Rockets are being outrun by a quarter mile. Seriously, think about that for a second. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Spurs are blowing their opponents out by the third quarter, while the Rockets are making our hearts stop in the final minute. Not good for our health either.

What do you think will happen IF the two teams continue to play just like they have in the last three games? The other question is, shouldn't you play at a high level in every single game?

How are the Spurs doing it? They've long held a philosophy of not relying on single players, and they also have been playing up to 12-13 players averaging no more than 25 minutes a game. That's directly related to keeping up the intensity on the defensive side.

Also, defensive rankings for the last 3 games (teams getting into playoff mode), possibly indicative of how these teams will be faring defensively in the playoffs unless things change:

1. Indiana
2. Washington
3. San Antonio
4. Memphis
6. LA Clippers
7. Atlanta
8. Cleveland
10. Portland
18. Golden State
21. Houston

Again, this thread is not to prove the Rockets are heading for an early exit, but that they may have to change things to avoid one.

 

Outran us by almost three quarters of a mile. Sheesh.

Distance: Spurs 16.65 > Rockets 15.97 ; UFGA: Spurs 50 > Rockets 41
Average team speed: Spurs 4.16 > Rockets 3.99

Prigioni - 4.54 (-4)
Jones - 4.25 (-9)
Terry - 4.14 (-15)
Brewer - 4.12 (-22)
Ariza - 4.13 (+1)
Howard - 3.83 (+4)
Dorsey - 3.69 (-3)
Harden - 3.7 (-26)
Smith - 3.68 (-10)