What's the going price for Dragic by the trade deadline?

When again does Eric Bledsoe become eligible for trades? Given the Rockets issues with re-signing after the trade and pursuing Dragic in straight up free agency, it might be that Bledsoe is the more realistic target.

I always thought all along that the Suns were really just resigning him in order to not lose an asset for nothing. Gogi is the better of the two players, is more likely to get an all-star nod in the near future (maybe not this year anymore), and is probably their face of the franchise.

Bledsoe might actually make more sense for the Rockets in the longrun as his deal (while overpriced now) won't look bad at all in 2 years when the cap goes crazy. He's also a better defensive player than Gogi.

As I mentioned, I do think Dragic is the better player, but Bledsoe might be the more attainable player once he's eligible to be traded & potentially has room to grow in the future a little bit more.

 

Really love this thread from Rox>Mavs! Love the breakdown with bullet points and how it really drills down the scenarios.

* Who are the realistic suitors?
* What is the "minimum accepted value" that PHX will accept for a Dragic trade?
* Will PHX trade Dragic?

The Dallas/Rondo trade helped in two ways. 1) It took Dallas off the PG market. They were high up there in the suitor category. 2) It revealed a market value for Rondo as it relates to Dragic.

* I believe Rondo is valued HIGHER than Dragic and thus would net a higher value in return.
* Rondo's value ended up being
1) (because of protections) a 2016 in the 20's 1st round pick
2) A late 2nd round pick
3) Filler (Crowder)
4) Brenden Wright - A quality player, BUT…BUT an expiring contract for a BIG that will want to get PAID. If Ainge can flip Wright again for an asset then that is one thing, but if not, Wright goes into FA with a number of teams lining up to overpay him. Wright would be more of an asset here to Boston if he was under contract another year.

Remember, last trade deadline a quality bench C (that was expiring) fetched 2 2nd round picks. This was the Spencer Hawes trade. So we can assume that if Ainge flips Wright again, he will get 2 2nd round picks.

That Rondo trade now looks like: Late 20's 1st rounder, 3 2nd round picks, Filler.

So, look at that haul. Not great in my opinion. Ainge waited too late. And PHX is waiting to late on Dragic.


Dragic's value?

PHX could have gotten a lot more from the Rockets if it would have traded Dragic over the summer or to start the season. Now the price is coming down. Sharply!

Personally? I think the NOP 1st round pick is OFF the table (which is better than anything in the Rondo deal). I think DMO is off the table (better than anything Boston got, including Wright since he is EXPIRING) and I am 50/50 on Kpap being available. One, or perhaps both could have been available to PHX over the summer. Not now. Sorry PHX.

Now, I think Morey is working with some combination of these assets/salaries
Rockets 2017 1st round pick
Rockets best 2nd round pick (NYK 2015) and other 2nd rounders
Terrence Jones
Isaiah Canaan / Nick Johnson
Clint Capella
Shved / Terry (salary filler).

I could see: Rockets 2017 1st rounder (lottery protected) + NYK 2nd round 2015 (maybe a 2nd 2nd rounder) + $asset (T Jones or Canaan or Capella) + salary (Shved or Terry)

That deal would be comparable to the Rondo deal. And remember, Rondo is thought of HIGHER than Dragic.


Will Dragic be traded?
-The Suns gave PG Eric Bledsoe the max.
-The Suns signed PG I Thomas to a rich deal.
-The Suns drafted PG Tyler Ennis in the 2014 1st round.

*They are all younger than Dragic. Dragic has to fight with Bledsoe/Thomas/Gerald Green for minutes.
*Dragic has REPEATEDLY said his upcoming FA is OPEN. Every stop this team makes in every city that will have eventual cap room, this comes up. Dragic is sending a CLEAR signal to the Suns. In theory, they would have 'home court advantage' in FA, but Dragic doesn't sound like he will give them that. He clearly is disgruntled.
* The Suns see what happened with Rondo. And they will read the tea leaves that if they don't move Dragic NOW, FOR SOMETHING, they will risk losing him. I would say a HIGH risk.

*Rockets know this. They know the trade climate. The price has been set. There are not a lot of suitors.

Dragic to the Rockets just makes a lot of sense.

 

Wow. You couldn't be more wrong about Wright's skill set. He's below average on that end in every aspect.

 

Prove it.

 

I just browsed through Dragic's following list.

These are the only NBA-related organizations he's following: NBA, NBA.com, NBA on TNT, Sports Center, Suns, Rockets. As mentioned before, he followed the Rockets, dropped it, and then following again.

Sign Josh Smith today. Add Dragic by trading deadline. The Rockets will be set!

 

Dragic has been absolutely killing it. I really don't see PHX trading their best player now

 

Great post dude. repped.

i would say shved and papa are the outsiders looking in. i see our shortened playoff rotation as:

dwight-dmo
jones-dmo
ariza-brewer
harden-brewer
bev-terry

now possibly add josh smith to that, OR replace jones with smith (if he's out that long). shved and papa are out of the rotaion come playoff time. might as well use those contracts to match salaries with dragic (or any other player at the deadline).

shved and papa are the envelope, but the cash inside can be canaan, johnson, capela, our 2017 pick, the NOP pick, 2 knicks second rounders.

i would not include dmo or jones. jones either has no trade value due to the seriousness of his injury, or if he were healthy he would be too valuable. dmo's play at PF and C is too valuable to lose without getting a decent backup center in return. the NOP pick might be too much as well.

aside from dragic, i would offer a combination of the above package for lawson or faried, dwill (although we'd have to add terry and others to match salaries), tobias harris, or greg monroe.

 

It's a matter of whether Dragic likes to compete for playing time with a million other PGs on the team. He'll be a free agent after the season. PHX have not much control over him by then. They'd better trade him for something now.

 

What would you do in their shoes?

Are you going to give him a max contract? If so, why aren't they having that conversation now with him? If not, he walks unless they think they will offer him more than he can get anywhere else.

If you don't want to give him the max then you better trade him now.


So that's the question - will the Suns give him a max contract with all those point guards they already have?

 

Everyone here likes Dragic so he is magically available.

 

I like the optimism but...


A. I don't think most GM's at this point would prefer Rondo over Dragic or assign him a higher value. We certainly don't.

B. The Suns aren't going to take a bum deal for Dragic just because of an apparent lack of suitors and have everybody toast Morey as a genius again at their expense. On the other side of the table, they'r not calculating the "minimum expected value" for Dragic and setting it as their drop dead floor, and taking him for damaged goods and filler.

They're calculating Morey's maximum value of Dragic, which certainly includes Papanikolau, and probably at least one, and probably two of Motiejunas, the Pelicans Pick and Jones (if Smith is on board).

If Dragic ends up on the Rockets, it's because the Rockets value him highly. This is no secret, and so value will be obtained in return, in all likelihood.

 

I think I'd trade Bledsoe for more value than I can trade Goran for. Bledsoe is signed and sealed for 5 years. They wanted to pay him $12 million a year for 4 years. They wound up paying him $14 million a year for 5 years. So that should tell us something. They really feel like they're overpaying for Bledsoe and he's been injured an awful lot. Combine that with the fact that the negotiations didn't go well and it's pretty obvious that their teammates prefer Goran to Bledsoe.

And they've got a waiting trade partner(s) for Bledsoe in Minnesota and Houston.

PHX will get more out of the trade if they trade Bledsoe. But then they've got to really commit to giving Dragic big money instead of shorting him. Becuase he could walk on them.

So PHX can get more back by trading Bledsoe but it comes with a higher risk since Goran isn't signed long-term.

Because:

1. They can't extend him. They can only sign him as a free agent. Why would they make a verbal commitment to him at this point? When he can go out the next day and bust his knee to pieces in a career-ending injury?

Or wait and figure out whether they can trade IT or Bledsoe for a better deal than they are being offered for Goran.

They didn't want to give Bledsoe the max. They didn't give Bledsoe the max. Goran's max is going to be $20-30 million more than Bledsoe's. No, they don't want to give him the max. They'd like to give him just a little bit more than anybody else will give him.

But that's not the whole issue with Dragic now. Dragic is seeing role as a big part of the equation. That's why he's brought up the Knicks and considering them. He knows he could possibly be the man there, the team be his. Like Lowry in Toronto. And what it appears to be in PHX with Bledsoe now as the primary lead guard. So he's made it clear he's going to explore free agency and that has CRATERED his trade value.

Does anybody think for one minutes that Morey is going to give up either of DMo or the Pels pick for Dragic when he is committed to exploring free agency????

If you do, better think again. The most, the very most, Morey will give up for Dragic is one of those two pieces. And he'll only do that if he is convinced he has very high odds of re-signing Dragic.

 

Can't the Suns trade one of their other point guards, and then keep Dragic?

 

People here love Lowry too, but do you see anyone realistically thinking we can get him? The Suns have a logjam at the position and are in a position where trading him makes sense. We talked about Love and Rondo too and guess what, they were available but just out of our price range.

 

It all depends. Right now PHX is on a role and OKC has been sliding. That will fix itself when Durant comes back. PHX needs to be convinced they will miss the playoffs before they will trade Dragic.

So far, most trade scenarios are just Houston getting Dragic for picks, young players and expirings. Any trade for Dragic will likely include a 3rd team and multiple players going in and out. Something like:

Houston In: Dragic
Houston Out: NOP 1st, Capela, Papanikolaou, Canaan

Sac In: Papanikolaou, Canaan
Sac Out: Stauskas

PHX In: NOP 1st, Stauskas, Capela
PHX Out: Dragic

 

Agreed. These pressure factors on PHX will remain whether they make the playoffs or not, as long as they are not contenders I think.

Moreover, I seem to remember Morey saying (a while back) that he would be willing to overspend for the right piece when they reached contender status. Would Dragic be that final piece? Probably.

.

 

Stating the obvious here, but the Rockets signing of Josh Smith just opens up more player/asset options to trade for Goran Dragic.

Now we just need the Suns to start losing some games and the Thunder to start winning games to solidify their position as the 8+ seed.

Finsraider's deal isn't bad. From PHX's perspective that is THREE 1st round picks for Dragic.

 

How does Terry + Canaan + NOP pick + Knicks 2nd not get this done either now or before the trade deadline comes?