yeah, what I've used for rankings (not projections, just rankings) is fantasypros.com (http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/#2013) and it really shows how much of a crapshoot rankings and projections really are. As they say, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good....
Projections as a whole are entirely meaningless because of the obvious circumstantial variables and unexpected value increases. Of course I know Julio Jones is a top 5 WR, but can he stay on the field all year? Is Eric Decker going to be a decent WR3 option this year going from Peyton to Geno Smith? The analytics give you a basis for what is expected to happen should production stand up over a steady curve. Of course 20%+ of those RBs and WRs are going to end up injured for at least a couple of games, but there isn't a way to predict that for sure. Projections are always lower for rookies as well because rookies are expected to have an adjustment period. Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin could all be lower end WR3s, but Brandin Cooks could be a WR1. This is why the QB is so important. Even if the regime changes, the QB's ability to produce is what ultimately makes a WR valuable. Mike Wallace had much more value with Ben Roethlisberger buying time for him to get open than he did with Ryan Tannehill getting sacked every 3 downs. That is why Julian Edelman is a nobody unless he has Tom Brady throwing to him. QB/WR relationship makes it easier to predict a guy like Brandin Cooks performing well than say a Sammy Watkins / Mike Evans who may be more talented but lack a prolific QB like Brees getting them the rock. Will anyone even think about drafting James Jones this year? Last year you definitely would have because you know Rodgers gives him 10 TD potential. This year in Oakland he's waiver wire or late round fodder. The passing game provides the most stability in fantasy. This is why finding 2 decent RBs is getting harder than ever. Sometimes it is better to settle for a Joique Bell than risking your 2nd rounder on Zac Stacy when you could have sure fire passing game stud.
While I agree with almost everything you said, I tend to agree with the others in the sense that taking those high end QB's is not a very good strategy. (regardless of the success or failures you've had with it). Although you may be "thinning" the field, you're also thinning your own team. If you take these players with the thought of trading them for a top tier RB/WR, then I think it's fine, but to take them just so you can use them for a couple of weeks is a total waste to me. Doing that just ensures that the other position players on your team won't be that good. IMO
Question ---> when was the last time Brees had a legit fantasy WR1...??? If you have to think about it _ that means Cooks more than likely won't be. Maybe a good WR3. Brees spreads the ball around a lot and Jimmy is the receiving option on the Saints that eats on a regular basis (Brees love his TE's). Kelvin Benjamin is the rookie who has the best shot to bust out because he's the best receiver Cam has so he should see a consistent amount of targets on a regular basis (especially in the red zone). Paul Richardson is another rookie who has a shot to post good #'s up in Seattle _ he's a beast and is just as good as every receiver that was drafted before him not named Sammy, and Percy is bound to get banged up at some point (but I do think Percy will have a very good year as well when he does play). As far as RB's... Toby Gerhart has a shot at being a low end RB1. He's a career 4.7 ypc RB, the Jags offensive line should be better with Luke back, and look at their schedule _ he plays the AFC south and the NFC east _ he should be a steal in the 4th or 5th round. I would wait to get him before I ever consider spending a 2nd round pick on Zach. The rankings from the fantasy sites are useful but everyone looks at them so IMO, the key to being successful in fantasy is looking were most of the other owners aren't.
Marques Colston comes to mind as a lower end WR1 in his prime. I'm not going to jump on the Cooks bandwagon, but I do recall a season where Robert Meachem was a 12 TD Wideout because of Brees. Benjamin to me seems like a red zone target but I see Greg Olsen as the only Panther of weekly value given the nature of their offense. I don't put any stock in Seattle receivers. Wilson has never shown a favorite and they want to run first and second.
The best fantasy year Colston ever had I believe was 2007. And Brees has plenty of guys to feed with Jimmy eating the most. But maybe Cooks can break the trend. He is very talented. Benjamin being a red zone target is even more reason why I say he has a shot to be the best fantasy rookie WR and as of now he may be the best red zone target on that team. I'm not guaranteeing that Benjamin will have a great rookie year but him and Sammy are going into the season as the #1 WR's for their team so both of them have the upper hand on the other rookies WR's regardless of their quarterbacks. As far as the Seahawks... A good reason why they run so much is because they had no legit receivers with Percy being out all year and they had the worst pass blocking offensive line in the league. They picked up some offensive lineman that should make the line a lil better and now have two burners in the receiving core, and don't forget who their head coach is. I'm not positive any of these rookies will have #1 receiver #'s but all should be good for spot starts.
Your point is well conceived. Cooks will be doubtful to reach WR1 status as a rookie, but I don't discount his WR1 potential as much lower than that of the Big 3 of Watkins, Evans, and Benjamin. However, I am much more comfortable selecting Cooks and seeing a reasonable return as a WR3 investment at this point than I am Watkins/Evans/Benjamin based solely on the Brees element. BTW - Brad Evans has an article out about the Zero RB cultists and why Le'Veon Bell should be your pick. http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/fanta...d-like-to-have-a-word-with-you-220134223.html This is what so-called experts will try to drill into your head every year. They constantly hype up RBs like this and fool you into thinking taking that 8th or 9th RB will catapult you into fantasy dominance. Evans even mentions the 43% bust rate among top 12 RBs. The numbers don't lie. Drafting an RB outside of the top 3 is playing Russian Roulette with your season.
I can understand your theory on Cooks. Especially if they use him like they did Sproles... I had L. Bell last year and he was GREAT for my team... But no way in hell I'm drafting him in the 1st round. I never spend a pick in the 1st round on a RB without some form of a consistent history (see C.J. Spiller) and or on a 2nd year RB unless they're a LT or AP type player (see Forte and Doug Martin after their rookie years)... Also, Bell plays in the AFC north and Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Cleveland have some darn good defenses and the 1st 5-6 games of the season and the playoffs aren't very favorable matchups for Bell. So I disagree with that article. But I do think he will be a decent #2. Either Shady, Charles, Calvin, Demaryious, and AJ Green are the only players I'm considering drafting in the 1st round because they are a "safe" bet to score at least 200 or more points (standard scoring) baring injury. I never go for the boom or bust pick in the 1st.
Since the OP started this thread about QB's. I just heard on a ESPN podcast that in their leagues the top 5 QB's that appeared in the playoffs were Manning, Brees, Stafford, Foles, and Luck. So loading up on quarterbacks early may not be a good idea. And drafting to try to dictate how other owners draft probably isn't a good idea either.
I have been mocking lately on 10 team leagues (Yahoo money league format) and the results are just incredible when you pick toward the end of the draft. Yesterday I was picking 9/10 and ended up with this QB: Stafford(5-9), Manziel (13-9) WR: Dez Bryant(2-2), Demaryius Thomas (1-9), Julian Edelman (8-2), Mike Wallace (10-2), Josh Gordon (11-9) RB: Gerhart (3-9), Spiller (4-2), Sankey (6-2), Joique Bell (9-9), C Michael (12-2) TE: Witten (7-9) D: NE (14-2) K: S Graham (15-9)
Yeah, as long as theres no surefire top guy (like this season), I think the best picks are at the end with that double dip.
I really don't get your logic here. Besides, nobody (or at least not manny ff pudnits) advocate taking qbs high. In case you aren't aware of it, they generally tell you to take rb-rb because rbs are in short demand blah blah blah. Not sure you are going to find a pundit that would take a qb strategy approach. Of course, what you don't understand is that these same pundits believe in some balanced team of nirvana that is just not realistic. That said, you are going to compromise your roster SOMEWHERE and while rbs are valuable to have, it only takes a couple of injuries to level the playing field and if you focused on other positions, then you are going to benefit from this.
Well I said I don't believe it's not a good idea to load up on QB's (plural) early... There's nothing wrong with taking one early. My 1st year playing FF was in 2003 _ I drafted LT, Moss, Holt, and Manning in that order. 2004 _ I drafted Daunte Culpepper in the 2nd round. I've been doing what you're talking about doing for over a decade and been winning like Charlie Sheen. So I completely understand.
No.. I wish. A budy of mine gave me a lot of advice so I can't take credit for coming up with the strategy on my own. Lol... But you guys seem to know what you're doing. And "if" you're placing in the money rounds in your $100-200 league(s) on the regular _ you can turn fun into a business. Two years ago I was in 10 $1000 buy in 10 and 12 owner leagues... Came in 1st in one of them, 2nd in 4 of them and 3rd in 2 of them _ which means cha-ching $$$... It's some serious money to be won in FF. Good luck to you guys this year.
