Excerpt from Houston Chronicle (http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bk/bkn/3790977.html) April 13, 2006, 1:23AM Rockets introduce data-driven exec By FRAN BLINEBURY It was Daryl Morey's first day on the job with the Rockets, a time to put the key into the lock, slide behind the steering wheel and get the seat adjusted to the right position for the long ride that starts as assistant general manager and a year from now will make him the successor to Carroll Dawson in the GM's post. But it was also a day for the Rockets to lift the hood, kick the tires and try to determine exactly what's in the trunk of the 32-year-old statistical maven who just pulled into their garage. "I grilled him hard today on a lot of that stuff that a lot of people are asking," Dawson said Wednesday. "I wanted to find out what kind of edge it would give us. There's some interesting stuff he brings up, and I'm looking forward to getting into it deeper. "It is an overall better picture, and it will give you a lot of help instead of just looking at the naked eye and scouting. This brings a whole new perspective to us and will help tremendously." With an educational background from Northwestern University and MIT, Morey can crunch numbers with the best of them. He worked for Stats Inc., the outfit that places a premium on numbers like those behind the book Moneyball. Morey says he is not trying to reinvent the wheel, so to speak, but merely give it a little more air to go down the road. "You look for an edge where you can get it," Morey said, "whether that's from a scout who has a track record of finding success, or if it's from some of these new approaches that have had success for the Red Sox and the Patriots. "I think I'm surrounded by first-rate staff here. I'm gonna be learning from them across the board. Working with the Celtics, I've had a chance to evaluate talent, and I just come from a different perspective, which is maybe a different approach to raise the right questions and then, as you work with the scouts, to sort of fill in the blanks on whether that player can do it." An example would be the search for a strong rebounder, he said. "You want to understand that," Morey said. "You have more of a quantitative approach that gets you to that. Then you work closely with the scouts, and then you work visually and say, 'Is the competition in that league better or worse than the past? Is what you see with your eyes telling you that that person can create space and pursue the ball?' "You're always weighing factors such as traditional scouting and then quantitative methods. What sort of reliance you put on them depends on the context of the situation and how reliable it is. I think the numbers frankly often just ask the right questions of where to look next as you're looking to build and evaluate a team." The Celtics made former Houston high school star Gerald Green a first-round draft pick last year. "Gerald Green was someone that (Celtics president) Danny (Ainge) was very high on, and I know the Rockets were as well," Morey said. "He's starting to show that. He's starting to show some of his talent on the court. In terms of the role there, I think as you're projecting high school players, that's something that's more difficult to do, and we did a few pieces of analysis for Danny that helped influence that pick." With the end of a star-crossed Rockets season approaching fast, Morey's talent for analysis will be tested quickly. "I think you have to prioritize as the decisions come up," he said. "I'm gonna take my lead from Carroll in terms of what are the most important issues to focus on. But obviously we have the draft coming up as a big focus and what we do with trade exceptions, things like that." I found the book Moneyball to be fascinating. Billy Beane, manger of the A's, believed baseball relied to much on what seen with the naked eye, subjective scout analysis and Stats that existed before the advent of statistical analysis. He focused on lesser known numbers like "on base percentage". In fact, he broken down every aspect of the game to be a number that could be analyized. For example, a strike on the first pitch of an at-bat may be worth - 0.05 runs. In the end, he was able to find undervalued talent and stay competitive with teams that had three times his team's salary. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moneyball The chroncle article is very vague on the specifics of Morey's Moneyball. I wonder what non-traditional stats or formula's he is using. Understanding that is to understand his so called magic.
He said in the press conference that he's not using the statistical aspects in his choices very much.
Thats good. There is so much to the game that can't be measure by stats. I'm glad he's not basing everything on numbers like some of the fans on here.
Here is perhaps a more illuminating article on picking up Battier: Morey points to the acquisition of forward Shane Battier last summer as a quintessential example of how statistical analysis can reveal the true value of a player. Battier's career averages - 10.4 points, 4.7 rebounds - are modest by most standards. Kevin O'Connor, the Jazz's senior vice president of basketball operations, said the Jazz put a similar emphasis on statistical analysis, with a consultant delivering a 150- to 200-page report after every season. "Every team has different things that they're more interested in,'' O'Connor said, "but I think probably the nuts and bolts of it all, everyone does similar things." But Morey has calculated Battier's value beyond what shows up in the box score. Just having Battier on the floor improves the Rockets' team defense, rebounding and three-point shooting. He also has played all but 14 games in his six-year career. It led Houston to acquire Battier last summer from Memphis, trading Stromile Swift and the draft rights to Rudy Gay. Whether with their eyes or with their computers, the Rockets knew Battier was the kind of player needed to complement Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. I want to see the team STAT report. It's Morey's spell book.
Stats inform decisions. At the end of the day, it's a question of did I pay the right amount for the right person without blowing the cap. But he is running numbers. You can continue to call it wizardry if you like.
I would argue the fans here base everything on box scores. The kind of statics Moneyball values try to put numbers around the so called intangibles of Battier. That can be represented as a number like fewer points scored by other team when Battier is on the floor averaged acrossed playing all teams. I don't know exactly what Stats he is using, but the term Moneyball is all about using stats to inform decisions and finding undervalued players. If you can begin to understand the complexities of the game by comparing numbers then you can factor out some of the subjective from your decision ( i.e. outrageous suggestions seen on this board) Moneyball is an amazing book that I would recommend. I just hope the term doesn't lose it's meaning and become a synonym for being frugal. Then Morey makes a move no one saw coming and ohhhh it's magic.
"Basketball on Paper" is a pretty good read if you're interested in the statistical concepts Morey uses to evaluate a players overall value. http://www.amazon.com/Basketball-Paper-Rules-Performance-Analysis/dp/1574886886
I had my friend post this a few months back. It's something I put together. Thought it's relevant to the topic at hand. Rockets’ GM-in-waiting fuels chemistry, aims for championship run Standing at a firm 6’4’’, Daryl Morey looks like a basketball player who plays for the Houston Rockets. He attends team practices, speaks on a daily basis with head coach Jeff Van Gundy, and is often seen walking around the Toyota Center offices. However, Morey’s job with the Houston Rockets does not involve his physicality; it involves an immense amount of creativity, management, and knowledge, all of which have helped key the Rockets’ success this season both on and off the court. Raised just outside Cleveland, Ohio, Morey attended Northwestern University, where he majored in Computer Science. He earned his degree in five years, not for lack of intelligence, rather because of an ambition and passion for sports. “I never went to any of my classes,” said Morey. “I instead worked at STATS Inc. for the legendary Bill James. When I had tests, I’d get notes from my friends, cram the night before, and show up on test day. I hated school. It’s not real.” At STATS, Morey ran fantasy leagues and undertook the intricate task of forecasting the future seasons of MLB pitchers. Noteworthy breakthroughs include his derivations of the Pythagorean Theorem of Winning Percentages: Morey has successfully found a way to calculate how many games a team will win based on key statistics in basketball, hockey, and football. “You have to understand that every sport is different. The weight you put on analytical approaches in decisions will be significant in all sports, but in some sports, that influence can be lower than in others.” After Northwestern, Morey went on to get his MBA from MIT’s Sloan School, where he founded the Leadership Forum, taught analytical sports management, and edited a book titled Knowledge Management: Classic and Contemporary Works. Morey’s expertise in the field granted him a job as a knowledge consultant with the CIA, where he relayed important information to the key decision-makers. Morey, 35, has worked in countless companies, including Wall Street, the NSA, and the Boston Celtics, serving as an important facilitator in the success of every enterprise. Morey’s achievement brings us to his current task: reforming the Houston Rockets as the future General Manager, a position that he will take over this summer. Under Morey’s leadership, the Rockets made their first “moneyball” deal last summer, trading Stromile Swift and the number eight draft choice Rudy Gay for Shane Battier. Many Rockets fans were critical of the deal, stating that the Rockets traded away two rising stars for a role player. However, Morey saw more to Battier than just his stat-line. “Shane creates a lot of points without a lot of trips down the floor," said Morey. "He helps other players get shots because he moves the ball quickly and he's always in the right spots. His defensive contributions are also stellar. Memphis outscored their opponents by an average of ten points when he was on the floor for them last season." The move has proven to pay off thus far, as Battier has been a key contributor to the Rockets 34-19 start. He leads the NBA in charges taken and is near the top of many unsung categories, including player efficiency, on-the-court plus-minus ratio, and least turnovers for players who average over 30 minutes a game. Bringing an entirely new tradition to a sport that has excelled on physical play and talent, Morey, with owner Leslie Alexander’s support, believes that his work is just the beginning of an emerging trend in the NBA. “Mr. Alexander has had a very successful business vocation by identifying how to gain a competitive advantage in the industries he has chosen to be involved in and recognizing important trends,” said Morey. “He believes superior information and forecasting will lead to a competitive advantage in basketball.” Players and coaches also rejoice the new ideas. Morey works in close collaboration with the coaching staff, providing detailed information on what is and is not working on the court. Players are given tips on how to improve their games from an analytical perspective, such as spacing, positioning, and crunch-time situations. “It is important to have mutual respect and a commonly understood strategy and approach,” said Morey. “Jeff [Van Gundy] is open to new ideas. One great characteristic about him is that he has a great eye for what is happening on the court, a characteristic that not many coaches have in any sport. At the pro level, no one survives without adapting to successful strategies and trends.” Morey’s influence has clearly shown this season. He admits that he does not have all the answers, but his résumé paints a picture of someone who is driven and willing to succeed. It has been ten years since the Rockets have made it past the first round of the playoffs. During that period, the Rockets have had five lottery seasons. Things are finally looking better, and under Daryl Morey’s leadership, the Rockets have finally lifted off.
I agree sounds like Battier fits Adelman's passing Princeton system. I found a nba stats site which has some interesting links. http://sonicscentral.com/statsite.html I may check out the book mention is the previous post
Great article OrangeRowdy95! I really like the quotes from Morey. Great read. One request, you've said that this is a cut version due to space limit right? Could you please send me the full version? I would like to read more about this guy. My mail is dazzle116@gmail.com. Thank you.
Who cares? Stats don't mean anything. I don't care if the other team scores more points than us, as long as I thought we played better, we won the game.
This post on a MIT blog may have answered my question. Daryl Morey, SVP Operations and Information, Boston Celtics Daryl was a lunchtime speaker at Sloan a couple of weeks ago. He discussed his job at the Boston Celtics. He does a lot of data analysis to help the Boston GM make decisions on which players to pick/draft/trade. Pretty interesting stuff. He says that only a handful of NBA teams are using a statistical approach to help them make decisions. I can only imagine that will change over time. And since there are so few teams that use stats heavily, it is hard to break into the field. Daryl's Bio Notes: 2000 Sloan grad Consulted for 3.5 years at Parthenon Teams get most of their revenue from tickets and TV Most cost is from player salaries (60%) Winning is all about getting the right players Big reinforcing loop both ways (The better you do the more money you get the better players you can get. The worse you do, the less money you have, etc) He thinks a baseball team could be run by a computer these days (referenced Moneyball), but not true with a basketball team. Too many intangibles that are hard to measure. Basketball is more of a team game than baseball. FG%, Rebounding, Turnovers, and Free Throws are the most important stats for winning Hard to pick high school players because stats are unreliable With that in mind, I would guess that Morey probably is looking for more rebounds at the 4.
That's actually Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Winning, widely regarded by statisticians as true. FG% should actually be eFG% (adjusted for 3's).
If Morey thought like that he wouldnt be a GM. There is a trend towards statistics and those who can best forecast certain TREND are best fitted towards improving the team. Of course stats arent perfect but they are relevant.
Morey already know the Rockets will win 67 games during the regular season and 16 during the play offs.
Here's a quote for a Chronicle article from last year. The article isn't available online anymore, but here's a link to a mention of it in CCFans.net What are some of the statistics he studies? "Efficient use of possessions is an undervalued, under-appreciated thing relative to just a guy who scores," he said. "Is he using those possessions efficiently? That's a key thing that's undervalued." And? "The unit that is what I'd call 'ground truth' in the NBA is measured another way. There's a player on the floor with four other players, and he's facing an opposing group of five. While those 10 guys are on the floor, they're playing a mini-game for the time they're on the floor. Who won? "What created them winning and losing? Maybe they created extra possessions through turnovers or rebounding." Maybe it's one or two players being part of the varied lineups throughout an entire game that is more responsible for success than a box score would show. Maybe a player some people see as valuable really isn't. http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=2398488&postcount=90
Morey also knows that Rafer Alston and JLIII will not be any part of that success. Not to mention possible thunderstorms Monday with a clear forecast Tuesday. Book It!
Yeah, but if he did use stats heavily in his choices, why would he admit it? He has no incentive for sharing his methodology with the public. If I was a GM who relied on stats heavily, I'd try to downplay it as much as possible.
