What is the highest contract will Dwight be offered in free agency next summer?

Let's make a run first and see what is there at trade deadline before we make assumptions about next summer.

 

three dollars and fifty cents, more or less

 

i think it depends on three factors.

1 How healthy he is this year.

2 how far the rockets go in the playoffs.

3 if durant informs harden and howard that he wants to sign with the rockets.

i would have to think howard would give up $$ to play with harden and durant. if not he would be either really dumb or letting his ego get in the way somehow. because with those 3 and possibly lawson they should win a title or two and he would make money back on endorsements i would assume.

 

My lord I will piss my self no matter where I'm at if a notification comes up on my phone that says Kevin durant chooses to sign with Houston

 

In my opinion , he may not get the full max, but he will get very close to it. He may be wiling to make a "Carmelo" discount.
There are too much demand in next years market. If Atlanta loses Horford, if Al Jefferson doesn't resign with the Hornets (they don't want him to ) if the Celtics don't trade for Cousins within the next year, if Cuban tries again to get a center, they can all offer him all the money.
in the case of Atlanta and the Celtics he could be convinced that he can bring them to contender status.
Oh also Indiana may be in desperate need for a good center.

Just to give an example of next years craziness Batum is looking at ~20 per next year.

I also think that next years free agency will be like this one, in that the b and some c tier free agents will not be sitting around waiting for Durant and Horford to make their decisions because there are too much money available.

 

Dallas offers 5 year, 180 mil.

 

The Rockets will ask him to take a discount for Durant but will be repaired to give him the max of course.

 

Super athletic and hardworking (somewhat) yet not that great in the B-Ball IQ department. Missed an easy pass to Jones for a Game 2 win in the Conference Finals.

 

I honestly think Howard is going to retire a Rocket. He's getting too old to leave a guaranteed contender to go pursue "maybes". If we have a real shot at Durant, I can see him being convinced to take a discount in exchange for greater length of contract.

 

At this point and with his knees I expect Morey to lowball offer and go after whiteside or ride with Capela.

DD

 

I think that you're confusing Dwight's situation with Rookie Scale extensions.

You're only allowed to extend Rookie scale deal for a maximum of 4 years except that each team is allowed to have one designated player that can have their rookie scale contract extended for 5 years. Harden is our designated player and Rose, Irving, George, Griffin, Westrook and Wall are designated players for their teams.

That rule only applies to extending Rookie scale (i.e. 1st round pick) contracts. Since Dwight isn't on a rookie scale deal, then that rule doesn't apply to him. Additionally, that rule only applies to extensions. If a players contract expires without being extended and they hit Free Agency, then that rule also doesn't apply.

Howard would be a normal Bird Rights free agent so the maximum length of a contract he could sign would be 5 years.

Does that make sense?

 

If Morey doesn't re sign him, it's because he's found better ways to use the cap. Does Dwight get offered a full max if he continues to miss time? Worst case/Best case is that Dwight misses time (bad), but comes back in time for the Rockets to make the Finals (good). Dwight would have the Rockets over a barrel, I think, if that were to happen.

 

he is not worth max.

can't shoot FT
no reliable post up play
no outside shooting. hmmn.

 

Morey has tried with a lot of stars all but Dwight said no so its going to be hard to give what you have.

 

Why do people think he's going to leave? By all indications, he loves it here. Besides, outside of Golden State, there isn't a better situation for him. He's going to retire a Rocket.

 

Its too complicated to predict the contract without first knowing a combination of things-

A. How much are Morey, Fegan, and Dwight going to be on the same page.

(I'm sure Morey will reach out to Fegan and talk to Dwight about possibilities of working with them to help get Durant. He will present a case for how he can make it happen, and show how Dwight can help by structuring his contract differently and probably taking slightly less than he's making now. How Fegan and Dwight handle that pitch will be factor A.)

B. What's his health like next Summer?

C. What kind of year did he have?

D. What's the market look like?

(Are there openings at the 5 spot with teams willing to spend the max on him?... Dallas, BKN, NYK... have they found another solution at the 5 yet?)

E. Do the Rockets really want him back that bad?

.............................................................................................

So obviously A. seems to be the most important thing first. If they can all get on the same page, or stay there, I think they will find a way to figure it out to keep him, and also go for Durant, or another free agent. Given Fegan's history with .... everyone, and the fact that he's going to try and sway Dwight to the Mavs like he does everyone else, I don't have a great feeling about this relationship being very fruitful.

My HOPEFUL Guess:

Dwight severs ties with Fegan, and agrees to resign for 4 years 85 million with an ascending salary to give Morey more salary flexibility for next Summer.

 

I would rather give Whiteside 5/30 than 4/20 or more for Dwight. I really have a bad feeling about him, based on the couple last seasons. He's lucky to be able and play in playoffs, both for LA and Houston, but that luck will run out some day and he'll start missing playoff games due to injuries, on top of regular season. Also he is on a decline for quite some time.
With all that said, I'd give him 5/30 in a heartbeat, if there was a way to guarantee healthy 5 years, because he is a monster. But there isn't.

 

Dwights health is a double edged sword. He has a player option so if he has a terrible year health wise he could opt in. So in that case he would have to be convinced that he will get paid regardless.

As for the length of contract, Chandler who is older than Dwight just signed a 4 year contract.
There is simply too much demand and too much money in the market.
4 85 is a very very lowball offer at this point. It's only a rookie near max.

Give ~18 mil to Whiteside? A guy that has serious attitude problems and is a headcase? No thanx.
Besides we dont' have his birdrights, so if we get him we are automatically out of the Durant chase.
As for Capela unless he has a Gobert like sophomore season we can't rely on him to be our starting center. Unless we don't aim to be a championship caliber team ofc.

 

He'll be offered the max by some team. Houston will have to pay the man. I hope Dwight takes a cut to stay in a good situation. Houston was best for him then and it'll be best for him next summer.

Morey will get this done. Not worried. You don't work so hard to get a superstar to pair with Harden and let him walk after 3 years.

 

People saying Screw Dwight, go sign Whiteside or X Center instead really have no idea for the salary cap and CBA work. If Dwight leaves they can't just go get another high priced center AND go out and get Durant or another high caliber free agent.

Long story short, the Rockets need to try and keep Dwight if they can. It will allow them to upgrade elsewhere on the roster and keep the roster as currently constructed intact for the most part.

If you say screw you to Dwight and go sign Whiteside, you are probably done for the offseason.