I think it's a very relevant question to ask. Will this year be the year that we make "the jump" from solid playoff team to perennial powerhouse contender ala Phoenix in getting Nash, Dallas in the Big 3 maturing, Sacramento in trading for Bibby, Seattle in Kemp/Payton finally maturing and so on? Do our stars have the shelf life for an extended run of contention ala San Antonio and Utah with Stockton/Malone? Or will we come out of nowhere and win the title in our first year of relevance ala Detroit and Miami? When we made the trade, McGrady and Yao were both 25 and the conservative estimate was a good 7-8 year window before McGrady turned 32. He is now 28, going on 43, and we have absolutely nothing to show for the past three years in terms of climbing the ladder to legit contention. What's worse is that noone really predicted that his body would break down quite as quickly as it has and that his prime might already be over. On the positive side, I don't think anyone realistically expected Yao to emerge the way he has or that the two would get along so well and that their games would complement each other so perfectly. The question now is how many years does this duo have realistically in the tank? If status quo had remained from last year, I would have said 2 years tops. However, as big a Van Gundy fan as I am, the realist in me says that Adelman's system which will allow McGrady to play off the ball should add some time to his clock. More importantly, the addition of extra help in the form of James, Wells, Francis, and Scola could serve huge in extending our duo's shelf life the way Shandon Anderson, Howard Eisley, Bryon Russell and a cast of others did for Stockton and Malone. They won't play until their 40's like those two did, but making it to age 32 for McGrady's fragile body and a man of Yao's size (giants always retire early with foot problems) will be the rough equivalent in acheivement in their case. Scola and Battier are here for the long haul and are both relatively young. Wells, James, and Francis are all over 30 and on short contracts. It is unlikely that Francis and Wells are on the team in 2 years, realistically speaking. Right now, I would put our window at 3 more years, right before Tracy's 30th birthday. If Scola is even as good as Andres Nocioni, and they can replace the trio of Wells/James/Francis with a new 4th option, you could stretch it to possibly 5 years. The key to the equation will be having 4 very good players in the lineup to compete. The hopes of the two superstar model evaporated when Tracy's back fell apart and Dallas/Phoenix stacked their rosters to proportions the West had never seen before.
We have 3 years IMO. Especially due to our much deeper roster now, TMAC and other guys who have poor health (Francis, even Yao) will see less court time.
I think your post is mostly spot on, with the 2 exceptions being this quote and your overexaggeration of Tmac's frailty. I think SF has a chance of working out. 3 years sounds like a good time table for now. Maybe longer, depends how things go.
If bonzi has the year were all expecting him to have, les will reward him and will probaly offer him the MLE or the large portion of it for a 3 year deal. bonzi wont get a better deal then that. he's age is up against him. i see bonzi being here for probaly for another 3 years. Francis is only 30. hopefully now that he seems happy and content, he regain some of that game he had here and in orlando. i hope francis will except a paycut and re-sign multi year deal at seasons end. he loves it here. he just got paid 30 million by paul allen, so money wont a mega issue. Tracy's durabelity will improve now that we have stockpiled our bench with very, very, capebal offensive scorers. he wont have the huge burden of being the playmaker and a scorer. guys like francis and james are more then capebal of creating shots for themselves.another thing to keep in mind is mcgrady has only had one year of missing a alot of games as a rocket. So dont buy this nonsense that tracy misses a ton of games annualy. he did play 71 games last year.
I think there are several windows on this team. The Yao window has about 6-8 more years. The Tmac window has 3-5 more years. I think the team can win if led by Tmac or Yao......but better to have them both. DD
I think our window is 4 years with T-Mac, Yao, Francis, James, Wells, Battier & Alston. After that it depends on the developement of Scola, Landry, Brooks, Butler, Novak, Snyder, Head (those that are still with us) and future players traded for or drafted.
Wow, I'm surprised how many people are giving them so many years. Call me Debbie Downer, but I see this team's window as 2 years at the most. We haven't been out of the first round of the playoffs in 10 years. We've been up 2-0 in playoff series and still lost them the last 2 years, including being up 3-2 (with homecourt last year against an inferior team IMO). I don't know about you guys, but I think THIS is the year we need to make a serious move in the playoffs, or it's time to do something drastic. And I ain't talkin' about hiring another new coach...
Agreed. If at full health, they again fail to advance to the second round this year, I would blow the whole thing up.
Talk of Yao's shoulder and Tmac's back worries me. They're top notch players who I think can manage, but 2 years is the most that's guaranteed.
We'll be good for 3 to 4 years. If we get out of the 1st round this year we'll have the advantage of being a place where the veteran free agents wants to come to win a championship. That'll help us maintain our depth once bonzi, or francis maybe decides to move on.
