After his recent string of monster games (averages pictured below) I thought it was good time for one of these threads. Since the beginning of the season I've had to gradually revise my view of his ultimate best-case outcome, and I'm to the point where I'm starting to agree with Alpi's biggest fans just because he's been forcing the issue so well. I don't know if I'm quite ready to confidently state "He's gonna win an MVP award one day" but I think his best case outcome is looking like a true superstar, at least. What say you, GARM?
Only depends on how much a coach/team wants to ride him, what they want him to focus on (more rebounding, more scoring, more passing) and whom they surround him with. Realistically, 28/11/8 is where I see him peaking, but this will come naturally on a quest for winning and a championship, not forced like when Westbrook was stat padding.
As a ceiling, I would put the assist numbers higher than any of the choices there, 9-10 ish. For points 30 is quite possible but I am guessing defenses would rather risk other players than giving Alpi his 30. 27-10-10 is my projection.
Yeah, I just threw together some rough numbers by adding to his current averages by percentage. I agree his assists will likely increase more than his rebounding
I'm bad at predicting these things. But: 25 ppg, 10 rpg, 7 apg, 1.5 spg, 1 bpg I don't know that he'll ever be a great rebounder. He'll probably never be a good shot blocker. So that's my thinking.
don’t know. But it is jokic territory. Westbrook had similar numbers. It is a ceiling after all, to body will complain if he is 25/11/8.5
I think All-NBA is a realistic ceiling. He could be the #1 player at his position in the league potentially one day (though he does have peers who are competition there) but I think he'll always be an inside out player more than someone bombing lots of 3's. I'd say I'd project an "absolute ceiling" so like he literally hits every bit of his potential at a consistent 25/10/8 player and he may have a season or 2 as a "top 5 player" rather than being a perpetual one like a Lebron or Curry. Consistent all-star (I'd expect a minimum of 8 selections once the mainstream catches on to how fun he is to watch) maybe an MVP candidate with a small window (he still does overlap players like Luka, Giannis, Jokic, Lebron - seriously though wtf?, Edwards, Curry and other young prospects for big parts of his career) and I'd say a good distribution between All-NBA team selections. I could definitely see him get an MIP award this year or next depending on how honest the media are (it should be his right now tbh) and I can see him being one of those guys who's always in those award conversations but maybe loses out to the flashier more mainstream popular players because that's the world we live in.
The crazy thing is you could make a strong case that he's playing at an All-NBA level right now. If All-NBA is just top 15 overall player or top 9 forwards/bigs in the league, most advanced statistical barometers say he's there already. Overall, he's 11th in PER, 10th in total WS, 12th in WS/48, 8th in BPM and 10th in VORP. So anyone picking less than All-NBA just isn't paying attention. I went with "top 5" only because MVP in today's NBA requires a certain scoring workload that I'm not sure he's capable of reaching and maintaining over an 82-game stretch. I see him peaking at more of a 25-28 PPG kinda guy. Not a 32-34 PPG level. If he could develop a consistent 3-point shot, though, I really do think the sky's the limit.
