Again... just sharing! http://dberri.wordpress.com/2009/08/19/looking-with-envy-at-baseball-stats/ People who study statistics in basketball often look with envy at the numbers in baseball. A hitter in baseball stands at the plate by himself. Consequently, the numbers he generates is primarily about the actions he takes. In contrast, basketball players run with four other players. The interaction between those players appears to diminish the meaning of the numbers generated. The sport of football highlights the importance of interaction effects. The numbers we see for quarterbacks and running backs are very inconsistent across time. This tells us that numbers in football are not just about the player, but also about the player’s teammates. Consequently, forecasting the future in football – as Brian Burke recently noted – is very difficult. People often argue that basketball is very much like football. To illustrate this argument, just recently we discussed the impact Trevor Ariza will have on the Houston Rockets. Ariza posted a 0.192 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] for the Lakers in 2008-09. Such a mark is nearly double what we see from an average player, indicating that Ariza will help the Rockets in 2009-10. People argued, though, that Ariza had Kobe Bryant as a teammate last year; and without Kobe in Houston, Ariza won’t be nearly as productive. Although this story was told, the evidence suggests otherwise. Here is what Ariza did in 2007-08 and 2006-07 (much of which was spent in Orlando, without Kobe). 2007-08: 0.225 WP48 2006-07: 0.217 WP48 These numbers suggest that what Ariza does on the court is really about Ariza. Now let’s think about baseball. The Detroit Tigers just signed Aubrey Huff. Last season Huff posted a 0.912 OPS, a mark that ranked 15th among 147 qualified Major League Baseball hitters. In other words, Huff ranked in the top 10% in baseball. This suggests that Huff is one of the most productive hitters in all of baseball, and therefore, fans of the Tigers – like me — should be thrilled. When we look at the numbers from this year, though, it’s a very different story. Huff’s OPS in 2009 (prior to coming to Detroit) is 0.726. This mark ranks 136th out of 147 qualified hitters, placing Huff in the bottom 10% in the league. If we look over Huff’s career we see a similar pattern. Here is Huff’s OPS and ranking from 2003 to 2007: 2003: 0.922 OPS, 19th (top 17%) 2005: 0.853 OPS, 45th (top 41%) 2006: 0.813 OPS, 77th (top 60%) 2007: 0.779 OPS, 103rd (top 65%) The past six years of Huff’s career demonstrates a great deal of inconsistency. So which Huff did the Tigers add? Are they getting the player ranked in the top 10% in 2008? Or is it the player ranked in the bottom 10% in 2009? It seems likely that even Huff isn’t sure. Huff’s job is to hit a round ball with a round stick, and that’s simply not an activity that can be predicted easily. In the Wages of Wins we noted that the stories of Ariza and Huff are not unique. The numbers attached to players in basketball are simply more consistent than the numbers we see in baseball. And this means that decision-making should be easier in basketball. For example, the Portland Trail Blazers just signed Brandon Roy – a player ranked in the top 10% in the NBA [in WP48]– to a long-term contract. If Roy stays healthy, the Blazers can count on him remaining a top player in the game. And that will probably be true, regardless of his teammates. A similar story can be told about Chris Paul, LeBron James, and Dwight Howard. If these players stay healthy, teammates can come and go and these players will still rank towards the top of the league. Likewise, a player like Jamal Crawford – who has consistently placed in the bottom half of the league rankings – is not going to transform into one of the top players in the game now that he is with the Hawks. If only people in baseball had the data we see in basketball. Maybe the recent history of the Tigers would then be quite different. The Tigers finished in second place with 88 wins in 2007. They then added $40 million in payroll, and proceeded to lose 88 games and finish in last place. Given what we know about inconsistency in baseball, this result doesn’t necessarily mean that the Tigers didn’t know what they were doing. The Tigers might have simply suffered the wrath of baseball’s inconsistency. In contrast, the Pistons added Allen Iverson in 2008-09 and announced that such a move would help the team contend. The data, though, suggested fans of the Pistons were about to be disappointed (and eventually they were). Hmmm…let’s think about this again. The Tigers have a built in excuse when an entire season goes to hell. The Pistons – because their data is better – don’t get to use this same excuse (although they try). So maybe people in basketball should hope for the data we see in baseball.
Good post! Ariza just won a championship and played with the best player in the NBA (Kobe) and played under the best coach in the NBA (Phil), he is just 24yrs old but matured well having Kobe and Phil plus the ring, He knows how to play defense and loves playing D. You can review his game in the finals that he's been asking for more touches from Kobe (just couldn't 'cause we all know Kobe's instincts). This is a guy who is waiting to explode and become one of the NBA superstars! Remember how T-Mac stole the spotlight from G.Hill in Orlando...Remember how he got ESPN's attention from his highlights...right now Ariza got no love from the media at all...and that is good 'cause he will definitely make some noise next season! Ariza - 32MPG 24PPG 6RPG 3APG 2SPG
Wow, talk about an over hype. Ariza isn't from the same mold as the Kobes, Tmacs, Wades or Lebrons. He is from more of a role player mold. He doesn't create his shot as well as the other guys. His game is based more off cuts and slashes to the basket, spot up 3s and hustle points. Hes not going to be out there creating shots for himself or others like a Kobe or even T-Mac. If you're expecting him to put up those numbers, you're going to be disappointed. He's no Danny Granger either. He's more of a James Posey if anything. At best, he is the Rockets 3rd Option this season.....by default. Sure he may have Superstar-like dunks but that doesn't make you a superstar.
lol the guy has not averaged even 9 ppg in 6 seasons in the nba. That is quite a stretch my prediction: 12-13 ppg, 5rpg
Your prediction is just about right however due to the lack of offensive options, I believe He can average 18 -20 ppg. The system odf Adelman entails players to constantly move, motion offense where Ariza could thrive. With the Lakers, He was a spot up shooter but that only help him developed that aspect of his game. His athleticism would push him to balance his perimeter game and his drives to the hoop. His own power game.
I don't think your standpoint is correct either. Yes. He played as a role player in Orlando and LA but you cannot tag a 24 player a mere role player at this point. You have to admit he improved thru the playoffs and averaged 12 points. Within a new environment and a system in which everybody trusts everybody with the ball not to mention a player's coach I don't see why he can't develop into a 15-16 points super wing defender who can assist also. Handles are important but not everything.
You know damn well he will average at least 15-16 ppg with no McGrady, Yao, or Artest. But he isn't the level of player for the contract Morey gave him, especially when you consider who else was available and the fact that they had Rudy Gay who is a superstar version of Ariza but gave him up for Battier (who they could have easily gotten for much less). This season may very well prove to be the beggining of the downfall of Morey. We see it year after year. GM's can only look like they know what they are doing for so long and then eventually they reveal themselves as gamblers who got lucky. Most of them really don't know what the hell they are doing. You take Joe Dumars for example. Few people were questioning his moves during the championship run, but 3 years later and he is firing Larry Brown for Flip Saunders, trading Chauncy Billups for Allen Iverson, the list goes on. Bryan Colangelo, same thing. Gambled with Steve Nash and it paid off. The gamble was so good that everyone forgot that this was the same guy who traded away Jason Kidd for Stephon Marbury. What has he done in Toronto? Danny Ainge. Do we even need to get started on this guy? Had Minnesota not wanted to get rid of Garnett, he would still be in GM Purgatory. This guy is probably the biggest hack of them all.
I'd rather have a defensive player who will tap into his talent on offensive than a second string offensive player who can't play a lick of D named Gay. He thinks he can be a defender like Lebron by bulking up a little.
You have a lot of anger in you. I suspect Trevor's contributions to the team over the length of his contract will be well worth the cost.
The point is, this is the kind of player you pick up when you are a contender looking to get over the hump. He is a Shane Battier type. He is not a rebuilding type of player and he is not a "hold you over until next season" type of player either. David Lee Vince Carter Shawn Marion Shaq Jason Kidd Ben Gordon There were a lot of guys available.
There comes a point where some of these formulas just turn people off from the point the writer is trying to make. This article is one of them. The Rockets won every game I went to last season. Someone should make a formula for that and pay me millions of $$ to attend every game next season.
Thats a good role player in my book. Not exactly All-Star numbers, definitely not Superstar numbers. That guy was talking about Ariza like he was the next big thing.
