It will depend on how Cbud has developed. Last season as bas as Ariza has shot the ball, he was still a lot better than Cbud overall.
Yeah I know. Trying to navigate the complexities of it make it less than desirable for the casual stats fan (aka me) as well. The idea of wins produced is one that has a basis in reality so I continue to read about it. But I still haven't brought myself to buying Berri's book... but I have most all the rest of them.
How do you figure that? This thread needs a chemistry enhancer..... +11 to win shares for the overall balanced roster.... That is about right...54 wins. DD
What about what Yao will do to make Martin better? Opening up the perimeter and changing our defensive scheme? This analysis is seriously, seriously flawed.
I have a problem believing a methodology that clashes so significantly with team management decisions. Specifically, that they think Lowry is much more valuable than Brooks while the team has Brooks as the starter and plays him more minutes would imply that either Adelman doesn't know what he's doing, or there is something signficant this method is not measuring. Since Adelman's reputation is backed by a long career of success, the endorsement of employers who invested dearly in him, and the endorsement of another stat-head in Morey, I'm going to go with him on the Brooks/Lowry thing, which calls this whole method into question And, I imagine the difference is that this method is merely summing up parts, without considering the value that team architecture, chemistry or coaching brings.
The only thing Cbud did better than Ariza was shooting. Don't know about the chemistry. Yao never played with Martin/Cbud/Hill before, Lee/Miller are new. The best chemistry between Lowry/Landry is gone. The pace will again be different with Yao playing. The defensive needs a lot work etc.
I read a very similar article breaking down to a tee how the San Diego Padres were going to finish dead last this season. While interesting, I put zero stock in it.
What's this, another Wages Of Fail article? Hilarious. The guy wastes so much time doing all these statistical gymnastics and ends up with the conclusion that a team that won 42 games last year only wins one more after adding Yao Ming. Some things are just not worth posting, guys.
That's what I thought too when I read that part. The logical conclusion of this kind of measurement is that you should play a guy more if the number is higher. There has to be some variables that this thing does not measure.
Interesting read but in the end I think it is missing a few important pieces. Advanced statistical measurements are a great way to see things that might otherwise be hidden but in the end only show a small part of the picture. Unlike baseball, Basketball is a game in which each position must interact perfectly with each other in order to be effective. In no other sport are the intangibles like chemistry more important. I was shocked to see Patrick Patterson not even mentioned in the analysis. I am not expecting him to set the world on fire, but he is supposed to be a very polished an well developed player. From the little I saw of him during summer league, it seemed like he may have a chance to a valuable piece off the bench. I don't expect to see JJ on the court except for an occasional defensive substitution. One thing I do agree with is the analysis that lowry should replace brooks in the starting lineup. I hate to lose the shooting ability of brooks in the starting lineup, but my opinion is that his abilities will be maximized when he is allowed to roam free and not worry about running an offense. With the backups he won't have the pressure to give Yao, Martin, Scola, etc. touches.
That's a brilliant analysis! That's almost as brilliant as Morey's analysis on why the Rockets went from a top defensive team to a substantially below-average defensive team last season. Having Yao back for 59 games this season will add 1 win to our record. Book it!
Assuming everybody is realatively healthy, many posters that worship RA now will become biggest RA haters if the team only wins 43 games.
I don't think one counter example should throw his method into question, though there are other very good reasons to question his formula. There are always things not totally captured by numbers. You use the metrics to help form your overall picture of the player -- some are more useful than others -- not to replace the assessment of your experienced basketball people.
Morey has said he doubts Patterson will get significant PT this year. Of course, he also expected Joey Dorsey to contribute pretty quickly, so what the heck, lol. I'm not that high on Patterson's game from what I've seen. Great kid, a highly intelligent and dedicated young man who does things right. I just don't get the incredible talent vibe many here see.
