[Wages of Wins] Does Houston Really have that Big of a Problem?

I would say you aren't comprehending a word of what I'm saying. My apologies for not being clear enough.

 

My apologies for not understanding it.

Perhaps someone else can explain it in a dumbed-down version I can understand.

 

When your top two players are going to be out of commisson for the beginning of the season.

Yes.......yes you do have a big problem.

 

Don't project a season in which Yao (and Tracy) are absent by using numbers that came from a season in which Yao (and Tracy) was the focal point of that offense.

Instead, look for instances in which the team played without Yao (or Tracy or Ron, etc).

-->Look at the last 4 games of the Lakers series.

per48, per40, per01, ppg, whatever.

 

That's fine, except this was your first point which I was responding to:

"1) Points Per 48: Completely worthless stat in a league where no one sniffs that playing time - Iguodala led the league last year with an average of 39.9 mpg and generally only 1 or 2 guys on a team top an average of 36. Also, that stat dismisses the very real reasons why certain guys are limited to 15 or 20 minutes. Some have abhorrent defense. Some are too old or injury prone to handle big minutes. Are guys are going to have extended minutes available to them, but if you're going to flush out the stats, better to tailor it: Starters (points per 36) and reserves (points per 15 or 20)"

The implication here is that, somehow, points per game is superior to points per 48 (or points per minute, more generally). None of your subsequent arguments have supported that in any way. It's always more informative to look at points/min (or, equivalently, points per 48) and min/g separately, instead of just focusing on points/g. I don't consider points/g worthless (though its worth less than a lot of people think), and so, by extension, I can't consider points/min worthless either.

I agree, of course, that the more contextualized the stats are the better, so long as the sample size isn't reduced to insignificance. 4 games isn't a whole lot to go on. I trust the Rockets are considering more games than that when forecasting their chances this year.

By the way, I'm really not trying to defend the Wages of Wins article. I just never understood the complaint about per-48 minute stats that players will never play 48 minutes in a game. To me, that totally misses their purpose.

 

And I totally agree with most of what you said, except for the chiggers and lice thing. I am far better with #2, (of working with what you got) not getting trigger happy and not pushing the panic button. I am not for giving away the farm or future for a few more wins. Just as I am not for tanking a season just because you thing you can't make it out of the second round. Morey in my opinion is doing the best he can while looking towards the future. He's collecting undervalued assets and players that seem to have a winners mentality. Why not shoot for the playoffs while we're at it? Is the lotto our only hope? I don't think so, but may around here seem too.

Think about, would he want to bring in anyone that said, "Our team sucks and we don't have a chance so let's just hope we can get a high draft pick and next year will be better". Hell No, We have a scrappy bunch of fighters that are gonna make some teams look bad and catch alot of teams off guard.

What makes my skin crawl is hearing from some fans, Let's trade Scola to clear cap room for next year, we'll never be able to keep him, Let's trade Brooks or Landry to let the young players play more to gain experience for next year, Let's Trade Battier he just doesn't fit here anymore. Really? Hell No! how about let's suit up and bring on the Lakers.

Now, Yes I would of liked a bit more "splash" this off season but it's not over. And I do trust Morey's moves, but I don't think he's done. Still I don't condone tanking or the attitude of tanking because some fans don't think we have a chance to get past the first round, "Losers Mentality", ready to quit even before the season starts. I also don't condone giving away the future for a few more wins.

If there are no more moves this year and we take this team into the season "as-is", I don't know about you guys but I rooting for them to win. Win against Portland, against the Lakers, against GS, against Orlando, the Celtics, the Cavs and anyone else we play. I'm rooting for us to make the playoffs and get past the first round or more.

No one here can say we don't have a chance. Theres so many things that could happen between now and then. But I do calling it in now is having a losers mentallity. You can call it what ever you want.

 

I don't ever remember the Lakers having to hope for a lottery pick between Championships.? NY had bad management. I trust Morey will do the right things. IMO there's no need to be a bottom feeder to be a contender.

 

The Rockets are very scrappy and they always play hard. There's no way they will tank. If they think they can win, they will make the playoffs. I think they will finish somwhere in 45-50 win range.

 

If that's what you took away from it, I apologize. Not my intent or thinking in the slightest.

I simply do not like people taking point per minute and using that to project future production, especially when the conditions alter radically.

 

I took it with the same meaning as durvasa understood it. So what metric do you suggest using for projecting future production?

I understand what you mean about conditions altering radically (Yao out, etc.). This is similar to having M equation and N unknowns (N>M). Where the unknowns are more than the number of equations. Does that mean that you shouldn't attempt to model the behavior of the system. You work with what you got...

 

Thats a terrible example.

They were gifted a top five player (kobe) of the current era because he refused to play anywhere else straight out of the draft. That would be like John Wall saying he wont play anywhere but Houston and every one just passes on him we land him with a high teens pick.

Then later they were gifted with Gasol because of ex-Laker ties within the Memphis organization. Again an example of this would be Dennis Lindsey sending over Tim Duncan for Cook, Barry and Budinger.

 

Well Kobe wanted to play in LA adamantly was as much because of the Laker's excellent and storied history and tradition as much as because its a big market which he can make more money. If he went for the money only he'd have gone to the Clippers just as easily or wanted to only play for New York. The Laker's proud and awesome history and tradition as well as their staff and management was a huge reason why Kobe wanted to go to the Lakers.

So factor in our proud record since the Morey era-taking the championship-calibre lakers to 7 games and having a good winning record despite all the injuries, it wouldn't be a huge surprise to me if some star player decided to take a paycut and sign with us with a discount. Likewise with rookies in the draft, well Kevin Durant wouldn't have chosen OKC if he had a choice but how many Kobe-to-LA cases do we see?

and it wouldn't be far fetched for us to maybe see Morey pull a Gasol-like deal. McGrady is certainly a whole lot more attractive than Kwame Brown.

 

Sure it is! Morey isn't going to do ****!

 

I'll give you Yao, but I didn't T-mac as the focal point of the offense, last season.

How was T-Mac the focal of the offense while cheering from the sideline in street clothes? He wasn't.

 

This silly numerical analysis tells you nothing about how good the Rockets will be. This team isn't nearly as weakened as people think. They've played well even without their stars, and the young players, of which the Rockets have many, are only getting better. Plus, it looks like McGrady either will be back for most of the season or will be traded for pieces that presumably will improve the team. Either way, the Rockets should make the playoffs this year. They should at least be competitive enough to banish any thoughts of tanking, which is dishonorable and for losers. I'd rather they not tank and miss out on a championship as a result than see them take the low road and win a championship later on.

 

i really hate when they put everything into numbers cos i never understand how and wat those numbers really mean!

but i do have faith in our team! look at the Pistons when they won the finals. they didn't really have any superstar bk then! so c'mon guys! believe in our team!

 

I really think thay Jermaine Taylor will be able to contribute alot this season, b/c he was hampered by the hamstring in the Las Vegas league, and Chase will have an impact as well. As it stands now, they are an 8th seed at best, but if a healthy, motivated McGrady comes back, then that position will change

 

Jermaine Taylor is just another second round rookie that played in a subpar conference chucked up and scored heaps of points due to him being the only offensively-talented guy on his team. Now he's on the Rockets where he is a mere bench role player, I don't even think he'll be any better than Von Wafer.

But all is not lost. In fact its probably a good thing as we'll get a higher draft pick!

 

With our collection of scrappy, tough players, I fully expect the Rockets to contend for the last playoff seed. I don't expect them to get it, just contend for it.

IMO, our overall W-L success depends on McGrady, what the Rockets do with him, and what his attitude is more than anything else. If he stays and is fired up, we ought to make the playoffs. Otherwise, ignore this and just read my 1st paragraph again.